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Data-driven stock valuation

Altria Group (MO) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Altria Group is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily, free.

  1. Compare price with fair valuebelow fair value = cheap, above = expensive
  2. Check the quality50 and up solid, 75 and up strong
  3. Watch it or check another stockalert when fair value or trend changes

Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $121B · ISIN US02209S1033

At a glance

AG Altria Group logo Altria Group MO · US
Price$68.88
Fair Value$81.81
Upside+18.8%
Quality85/100

A strong business, trading 16% below our fair value of $81.81.

As of Aug 30, 2026, the fair value of Altria Group is $81.81 per share against a price of $68.88, so the fair value sits 19% above the price. A model estimate from reported figures, not an analyst target.

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y −5.1 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 39.5% net margin
✓Negative equity (buybacks among others) · generates free cash flow
·6.10% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
✓Wide moat 94/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 27 out of 100
Evidence: Medium Range $65.52 to $105.99

Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026

From 21 valuation models · updated 8 days ago

Share price +0.6% over the past month.

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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
  • Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$74.92 $29.50 Fair Value $81.81 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $29.50 – $74.92 · fair‑value band $65.52 – $105.99 · the $68.88 price screens below the $81.81 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Altria Group (MO) currently trades at $68.88, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $81.81, implying the stock looks roughly 15.8% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 85/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $87.36 per share, and 8 of the 21 models we run sit above the $68.88 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $23.56, and 13 of the 21 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Over the trailing twelve months, Altria Group generated revenue of $20.4B at a net margin of 39.5%. Revenue grew 5.3% year over year. Net debt stands at $21.2B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 14.4. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026

Scenario range: $65.52 (bear) to $105.99 (bull), the price of $68.88 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 19%, MO screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4025 per share) are deliberately not added.

Each model values the company its own way; the fair value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0 to 100) shows how complete a model's inputs are. How we calculate →

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $41.03 $61.77 $100.17 79
Growth DCF $43.49 $63.61 $98.04 78
Owner Earnings $28.95 $44.93 $74.54 75
All 21 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $41.03 $61.77 $100.17 79
Owner Earnings $28.95 $44.93 $74.54 75
5Y Revenue Exit $15.70 $22.33 $31.83 73
5Y EBITDA Exit $55.65 $91.48 $138.96 74
5Y P/E Exit $43.03 $69.65 $101.45 70
10Y Revenue Exit $24.91 $30.74 $36.42 68
10Y EBITDA Exit $49.49 $73.51 $99.31 69
10Y P/E Exit $41.83 $60.00 $77.30 65
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $28.29 $34.58 $38.90 67
EPV $60.21 $72.20 $82.70 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $38.27 $41.89 $47.40 69
DDM Multi-Stage $38.27 $48.01 $61.67 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $65.52 $87.36 $109.20 63
P/S Multiple $14.47 $19.30 $24.12 58
EV/EBIT $103.24 $141.57 $179.91 66
EV/EBITDA $77.73 $107.56 $137.40 67
EV/Revenue $0.8900 $6.32 $11.74 47
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $43.49 $63.61 $98.04 78
Rev-Margin DCF $15.70 $23.56 $33.83 72
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder $60.21 $73.52 $85.86 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $46.27 $66.10 $85.93 67

Widest divergence: Multiples ($87.36) versus Growth DCF ($23.56). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 14.4
P/S ratio 4.96 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $4.79 price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.4
Dividend yield 6.1% payout 87.7%
Net margin 34.5% FY2025
Return on assets (EBIT) 33.7% avg 5y
More key figures
Profitability
Operating margin 62.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $20.4B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +5.3% 3y avg −7.1%
EPS growth (YoY) +106%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $9.1B FY2025
Net debt $21.2B FY2025 · ≈ 2.3 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 85/100

Of which business quality 80 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 62

Profitability 82
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 89
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 77
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 88
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 46
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 60
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells smokeable and oral tobacco products in the United States.

Full company description

Altria Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, manufactures and sells smokeable and oral tobacco products in the United States. It offers cigarettes primarily under the Marlboro brand; large cigars and pipe tobacco under the Black & Mild brand; moist smokeless tobacco and oral tobacco products under the Copenhagen, Skoal, Red Seal, and Husky brands; oral nicotine pouches under the on! brand; and e-vapor products under the NJOY ACE brand. The company sells its products to distributors, as well as large retail organizations, such as chain stores. Altria Group, Inc. was founded in 1822 and is headquartered in Richmond, Virginia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Altria Group reported revenue of $20.1B in FY2025 versus $26.0B in FY2021, a compound −6.2%/yr. Reported net income was $6.9B in FY2025, compounding +29.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$20.1B
Latest YoY
−1.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−7.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−5.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (40Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.3%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+12.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend yield: the value created per share and year.
Earnings growth per share+6.5%
Dividend yield6.1%
Trend ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5Y 17.2% vs 10Y 4.5%, picking up
Operating margin (EBIT) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.35.9% (2018) → 55.0% (2024) · rising
Worst earnings drop67% (2009) · in USD
Revenue −6.2%/yr
FY21 $26.0B
FY22 $25.1B
FY23 $24.5B
FY24 $20.4B
FY25 $20.1B
Net income +29.4%/yr
FY21 $2.5B
FY22 $5.8B
FY23 $8.1B
FY24 $11.3B
FY25 $6.9B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +2.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +3.1 %

of which total revenue +1.7 % · buybacks/dilution +1.5 %

EBIT margin +3.4 %
Tax rate +2.0 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −5.9 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Altria Group · Fair Value
$81.81 +16%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Altria Group Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MO

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Tobacco · 36 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation
Quality Score 85 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +19% · Above median
Profitability
Return on assets 28% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 40% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 62% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.1% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Tobacco median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.4× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 5.93× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 13.3× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 8.9× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.65× · Pricier than median

What the price implies (reverse DCF)

The inverse question: what free-cash-flow growth must Altria Group deliver for ten years so that today's price is fair in our DCF model? Same formula, same discount rate as the fair value.

Implied FCF growth, 10 years+0.6 % per year
Achieved revenue growth, 5 years-5.1 % p.a.
Sector median revenue growth+3.1 %
FCF yield on price7.86 %
Discount rate (WACC) in the models8.1 %

The price demands an acceleration versus past growth: a high bar the company still has to clear. Ranking of the largest stocks →

Context: sector, industry, market

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE58 · sector 39
FUTURE27 · sector 25
PAST0 · sector 51
HEALTH100 · sector 97
DIVIDEND100 · sector 78

PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.

Insider activity: 46/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Tobacco

Similar stocks

10 more Tobacco stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Philip Morris International Inc PM $182.53 $103.71 −43%
British American Tobacco p.l.c. BTI $55.35 $61.07 +10%
ITC Limited 500875 ₹279.50 ₹212.74 −24%
KT&G Corporation 033780 175,500 KRW 110,656 KRW −37%
PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk, HMSP 745.00 IDR 1,041 IDR +40%
Smoore International Holdings 6969 HK$9.24 HK$4.19 −55%
Godfrey Phillips India Limited GODFRYPHLP ₹2,160 ₹1,194 −45%
PT Gudang Garam Tbk, GGRM 20,675 IDR 16,988 IDR −18%
TABAK TABAK 19,100 CZK 23,215 CZK +22%
China Tobacco International (HK) Company 6055 HK$23.86 HK$24.09 +1%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Altria Group (MO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 30, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $81.81 versus a price of $68.88, about +19% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of MO?
Our model-based fair value for Altria Group is $81.81 (as of Aug 30, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $68.88.
What is the quality score of MO?
Altria Group has a Quality Score of 85/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Altria Group (MO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $81.81 (as of Aug 30, 2026) from 21 valuation models. Cautious scenario $65.52, optimistic scenario $105.99. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Altria Group stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $81.81, about +19% upside versus a price of $68.88 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $65.52, optimistic scenario $105.99. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Altria Group (MO)?
Altria Group reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $20.4B (latest available figure, as of Aug 30, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of MO?
The net profit margin of Altria Group is about 39.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 39.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Altria Group pay a dividend?
Altria Group currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.10% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 30, 2026).
What growth is priced into Altria Group (MO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Altria Group would have to grow free cash flow by +0.6 % per year for ten years (discount rate 8.1 %, then 2 % perpetual growth). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -5.1 % per year. As of Aug 30, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MO use?
Our models discount Altria Group at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.50, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
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