Refinaria de Petróleos de Manguinhos S.A (RPMG3) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · BR · Market cap R$79.2M (≈ $15.2M) · ISIN BRRPMGACNOR9
What is Refinaria de Petróleos de Manguinhos S.A really worth?
Below-average quality, trading 28% below our fair value of R$1.19.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 14, 2026
From 8 valuation models · updated 18 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 14, 2026, revised from R$1.25 to R$1.19 (−5.0%) since Jul 17, 2026. Share price −26.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
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What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (37/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R$0.8500 – R$6.32 · fair‑value band R$0.8564 – R$1.52 · the R$0.8500 price screens below the R$1.19 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.
Analysis
Refinaria de Petróleos de Manguinhos S.A (RPMG3) currently trades at R$0.8500, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$1.19, implying the stock looks roughly 28.4% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 37/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 8 models at a data quality of 91/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Refinaria de Petróleos de Manguinhos S.A generated revenue of R$8.6B at a net margin of −19.2%. Revenue grew 77.0% year over year. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of R$93.1M. Fundamentals as of Aug 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R$0.8564 (bear case) to R$1.52 (bull case); at R$0.8500, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 73% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −56% fair-value upside, at 40%, RPMG3 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 8 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (R$25.61) versus Dividend Discount (R$2.89). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 15
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Refinaria de Petróleos de Manguinhos S.A. refines petroleum products in Brazil. The company also offers gasoline A, Diesel A S10, and Marine Diesel. It also exports its products. The company was incorporated in 1946 and is headquartered in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Refinaria de Petróleos de Manguinhos S.A. is a subsidiary of XOROQUE Participações S.A.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2024 · reported fiscal years
Refinaria de Petróleos de Manguinhos S.A reported revenue of R$7.0B in FY2024 versus R$1.5B in FY2020, a compound +47.0%/yr. Reported net income was −R$1.0B in FY2024.
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Peer Group
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 116 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE | ₹1,314 | ₹835.66 | −36% |
| Valero Energy Corporation VLO | $352.36 | $127.32 | −64% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC | $368.83 | $133.18 | −64% |
| Phillips 66 PSX | $242.23 | $99.41 | −59% |
| Neste Oyj NESTE | €31.28 | €3.83 | −88% |
| Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 | 75.80 TWD | 15.32 TWD | −80% |
| HF Sinclair Corporation DINO | $87.93 | $44.96 | −49% |
| Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL | ₹318.00 | ₹846.81 | +166% |
| SK Innovation Co 096770 | 122,400 KRW | 53,541 KRW | −56% |
| Sunoco LP, SUN | $75.55 | $53.36 | −29% |
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