RTL Group SA (RRTL) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of RTL Group SA stock €42.13, price €30.90, upside +36.3%, quality 57 out of 100. Rating: undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €21.91 – €39.31 · fair‑value band €30.35 – €63.06 · the €30.90 price screens below the €42.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 29, 2026.
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RTL Group S.A. operates as an entertainment company. The company operates television (TV) channels and radio stations; and provides streaming services, including RTL+, Videoland, and M6+ in France, Germany, Spain, Luxembourg, Hungary, and the Netherlands.
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It is also involved in radio and digital publishing business. In addition, the company operates Fremantle, a producer and distributor of scripted and unscripted content; Bedrock, a streaming tech business; Smartclip, an ad-tech business; and social media business under the We Are Era name.
The company was founded in 1924 and is based in Luxembourg, Luxembourg. RTL Group S.A. operates as a subsidiary of Bertelsmann Capital Holding GmbH.
Stock analysis
RTL Group SA (RRTL) currently trades at €30.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €42.13, implying the stock looks roughly 26.7% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of €107.81 per share, and 15 of the 24 models we run sit above the €30.90 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €10.35, and 9 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: €30.35 (bear) to €63.06 (bull), the price of €30.90 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
RTL Group SA reported revenue of €6.0B in FY2025 versus €6.6B in FY2021, a compound −2.4%/yr. Reported net income was €979M in FY2025, compounding −6.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €4.7B Mid · P/E ratio 52.4 · P/S ratio 8.52 · EPS (TTM) €0.5900 · Dividend yield 2.1% · Net margin 16.3% · Return on equity 2.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat.
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 36%, RRTL screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€30.35Fair Value €42.13Bull€63.06
Price €30.90 · Upside +36.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +0.0% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+0.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.5.3% vs 3.1%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 4%
2025 sits 111% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−1.5%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −3.6% a year for the price and +8.7% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Combining free-to-air operations with the Sky acquisition builds a broader streaming and pay-TV platform as main strength, while limited evidence of a durable moat and very low gross margins stand out as the key weakness.
Main risk: Execution risks when merging distinct business models threaten the targeted annual synergies and the contribution of streaming to overall profitability.
RTL Group is combining its free-to-air operations with the Sky Deutschland acquisition to build a broader streaming and pay-TV platform. Management targets annual synergies through workforce adjustments by 2027 while streaming already contributes to profitability. Does the cost discipline from integration deliver more lasting gains than the execution risks of merging distinct business models?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Broadcasting · 68 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/10 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside+36.3% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)2.7% · Above median
Return on assets9.3% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)16.2% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)4.5% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.9% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.1% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.09× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Broadcasting median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "RTL Group SA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RRTL
Frequently asked questions
Is RTL Group SA (RRTL) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €42.13 versus a price of €30.90, about +36% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of RRTL?
Our model-based fair value for RTL Group SA is €42.13 (as of Oct 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €30.90.
What is the quality score of RRTL?
RTL Group SA has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for RTL Group SA (RRTL)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €42.13 (as of Oct 29, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario €30.35, optimistic scenario €63.06. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the RTL Group SA stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €42.13, about +36% upside versus a price of €30.90 (undervalued). Cautious scenario €30.35, optimistic scenario €63.06. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of RTL Group SA (RRTL)?
RTL Group SA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €6.1B (latest available figure, as of Oct 29, 2026).
Does RTL Group SA pay a dividend?
RTL Group SA currently shows a dividend yield of 2.09% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into RTL Group SA (RRTL)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, RTL Group SA would have to grow free cash flow by -1.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +0.0 % per year. As of Oct 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RRTL use?
Our models discount RTL Group SA at 8.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.72, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For RTL Group SA that is -1.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has RTL Group SA (RRTL) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at RTL Group SA grew +0.0 % a year. The price currently implies -1.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of RTL Group SA (RRTL) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into RTL Group SA (-1.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of RTL Group SA (RRTL)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.77 %: that much free cash flow RTL Group SA produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of RTL Group SA (RRTL)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For RTL Group SA it is €42.13 per share (as of Oct 29, 2026), against a price of €30.90. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is RTL Group SA stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 29, 2026, RRTL trades below its calculated fair value: price €30.90, fair value €42.13, a gap of about +36% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RRTL?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€30.90); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€42.13). For RTL Group SA the two are €11.23 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is RTL Group SA worth?
The market values RTL Group SA at about €4.7B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 29, 2026). Per share that is €30.90; our models calculate a fair value of €42.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RRTL?
Our models span a range for RTL Group SA: cautious scenario €30.35, base €42.13, optimistic €63.06 per share (as of Oct 29, 2026, price €30.90). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RRTL?
RTL Group SA trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 52.4 (as of Oct 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €42.13 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of RTL Group SA (RRTL)?
Balance-sheet figures for RTL Group SA (as of Oct 29, 2026): return on equity 2.7%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RRTL from its 52-week high?
RTL Group SA trades at €30.90, about 19% below its 52-week high of €38.19 and 9% above the low of €28.40 (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €42.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to RTL Group SA?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Nexstar Media Group, Sun TV Network Limited, Jiangsu Broadcasting Cable Information Network Corporation, SES S.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is RTL Group SA stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 29, 2026: price €30.90, calculated fair value €42.13 (+36%), Quality Score 57/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RRTL calculated?
We run RTL Group SA through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €42.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. RTL Group SA currently trades 27 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of RTL Group SA (RRTL)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was €30.90. Our model-based fair value is €42.13, about +36% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with RTL Group SA right now?
Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range (€30.35 to €63.06) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of RTL Group SA (RRTL) come from?
Earnings per share at RTL Group SA grew −1.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.2 %, EBIT margin −9.2 %, tax rate +2.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +6.3 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of RTL Group SA
How large is the market capitalisation of RTL Group SA (RRTL)?
The market capitalisation of RTL Group SA is €4.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of RTL Group SA (RRTL)?
The price-to-sales ratio of RTL Group SA is 8.52 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of RTL Group SA (RRTL)?
Earnings per share at RTL Group SA are €0.5900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 52.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of RTL Group SA (RRTL)?
The dividend yield of RTL Group SA is 2.1% (payout 109%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of RTL Group SA (RRTL)?
The net margin of RTL Group SA is 16.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of RTL Group SA (RRTL)?
The return on equity (ROE) of RTL Group SA is 2.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of RTL Group SA (RRTL)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of RTL Group SA is 8.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of RTL Group SA (RRTL)?
The operating margin of RTL Group SA is 4.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at RTL Group SA (RRTL)?
Revenue at RTL Group SA is growing +3.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at RTL Group SA (RRTL)?
Earnings per share at RTL Group SA are growing +48.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does RTL Group SA (RRTL) carry?
The net debt of RTL Group SA is €658M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 29, 2026