STAG Industrial, Inc. (S2TA34) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of STAG Industrial, Inc. BRL 18.34, price BRL 38.00, upside -51.7%, quality 55 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
56‑month range R$25.27 – R$44.20 · fair‑value band R$8.54 – R$29.27 · the R$38.00 price screens above the R$18.34 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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STAG Industrial, Inc. is a real estate investment trust focused on the acquisition, development, ownership, and operation of industrial properties throughout the United States. As of December 31, 2025, the Company's portfolio consists of 601 buildings in 41 states with approximately 120.0 million rentable square feet. STAG Industrial, Inc.
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STAG Industrial, Inc. is a real estate investment trust focused on the acquisition, development, ownership, and operation of industrial properties throughout the United States. As of December 31, 2025, the Company's portfolio consists of 601 buildings in 41 states with approximately 120.0 million rentable square feet. STAG Industrial, Inc. was incorporated in 2010 and is based in Boston, United States.
Stock analysis
STAG Industrial, Inc. (S2TA34) currently trades at R$38.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R$18.34, 51.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of R$33.60 per share, and 3 of the 16 models we run sit above the R$38.00 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R$13.16, and 13 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: R$8.54 (bear) to R$29.27 (bull), the price of R$38.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
STAG Industrial, Inc. reported revenue of $845M in FY2025 versus $657M in FY2022, a compound +8.7%/yr. Reported net income was $274M in FY2025, compounding +15.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap R$38.9B (≈ $7.5B) · P/E ratio 28.2 · P/S ratio 9.14 · EPS (TTM) R$1.34 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 32.4% · Return on equity 6.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 11% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −7% fair-value upside, at −52%, S2TA34 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R$8.54Fair Value R$18.34Bull R$29.27
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.7%
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 3 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 3 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+14.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+10.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Profit margin 2022 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 38%
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+6.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in USD, USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.2% a year for the price and +3.8% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Industrial · 53 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score53 · Below median
Fair Value upside+39.8% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6.9% · Below median
Return on assets2.9% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)28.3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)37.5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth9.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)4.0% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.91× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Industrial median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "STAG Industrial, Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/S2TA34
Frequently asked questions
Is STAG Industrial, Inc. (S2TA34) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R$18.34 versus a price of R$38.00, about −52% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of S2TA34?
Our model-based fair value for STAG Industrial, Inc. is R$18.34 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R$38.00.
What is the quality score of S2TA34?
STAG Industrial, Inc. has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for STAG Industrial, Inc. (S2TA34)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R$18.34 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario R$8.54, optimistic scenario R$29.27. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the STAG Industrial, Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R$18.34, about −52% upside versus a price of R$38.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R$8.54, optimistic scenario R$29.27. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of STAG Industrial, Inc. (S2TA34)?
STAG Industrial, Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $864M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does STAG Industrial, Inc. pay a dividend?
STAG Industrial, Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.97% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into STAG Industrial, Inc. (S2TA34)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, STAG Industrial, Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by +6.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 3 years revenue grew +8.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of S2TA34 use?
Our models discount STAG Industrial, Inc. at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.98, country premium for Brazil. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For STAG Industrial, Inc. that is +6.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has STAG Industrial, Inc. (S2TA34) delivered so far?
Over the past 3 years revenue at STAG Industrial, Inc. grew +8.7 % a year. The price currently implies +6.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of STAG Industrial, Inc. (S2TA34) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into STAG Industrial, Inc. (+6.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of STAG Industrial, Inc. (S2TA34)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 28.91 %: that much free cash flow STAG Industrial, Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of STAG Industrial, Inc. (S2TA34)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For STAG Industrial, Inc. it is R$18.34 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R$38.00. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is STAG Industrial, Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, S2TA34 trades above its calculated fair value: price R$38.00, fair value R$18.34, a gap of about −52% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of S2TA34?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R$38.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R$18.34). For STAG Industrial, Inc. the two are R$19.66 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is STAG Industrial, Inc. worth?
The market values STAG Industrial, Inc. at about R$38.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R$38.00; our models calculate a fair value of R$18.34 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about S2TA34?
Our models span a range for STAG Industrial, Inc.: cautious scenario R$8.54, base R$18.34, optimistic R$29.27 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R$38.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of S2TA34?
STAG Industrial, Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 28.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R$18.34 is built from several models across several years.
How solid is the balance sheet of STAG Industrial, Inc. (S2TA34)?
Balance-sheet figures for STAG Industrial, Inc. (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 6.9%, debt of 0.91 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 55/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is S2TA34 from its 52-week high?
STAG Industrial, Inc. trades at R$38.00, about 11% below its 52-week high of R$42.68 and 4% above the low of R$36.54 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R$18.34 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to STAG Industrial, Inc.?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Public Storage, a member of the S&P 500,, Prologis, Inc, Extra Space Storage Inc, EastGroup Properties, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is STAG Industrial, Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R$38.00, calculated fair value R$18.34 (−52%), Quality Score 55/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of S2TA34 calculated?
We run STAG Industrial, Inc. through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R$18.34, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. STAG Industrial, Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of STAG Industrial, Inc. (S2TA34)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R$38.00. Our model-based fair value is R$18.34, about −52% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with STAG Industrial, Inc. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R$29.27). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (R$8.54 to R$29.27). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (55/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of STAG Industrial, Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of STAG Industrial, Inc. (S2TA34)?
The market capitalisation of STAG Industrial, Inc. is R$38.9B (≈ $7.5B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of STAG Industrial, Inc. (S2TA34)?
The price-to-sales ratio of STAG Industrial, Inc. is 9.14 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of STAG Industrial, Inc. (S2TA34)?
Earnings per share at STAG Industrial, Inc. are R$1.34 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of STAG Industrial, Inc. (S2TA34)?
The dividend yield of STAG Industrial, Inc. is 4.0% (payout 113%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of STAG Industrial, Inc. (S2TA34)?
The net margin of STAG Industrial, Inc. is 32.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of STAG Industrial, Inc. (S2TA34)?
The return on equity (ROE) of STAG Industrial, Inc. is 6.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of STAG Industrial, Inc. (S2TA34)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of STAG Industrial, Inc. is 3.9% (avg 4y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of STAG Industrial, Inc. (S2TA34)?
The operating margin of STAG Industrial, Inc. is 37.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at STAG Industrial, Inc. (S2TA34)?
Revenue at STAG Industrial, Inc. is growing +9.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +8.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at STAG Industrial, Inc. (S2TA34)?
Earnings per share at STAG Industrial, Inc. are growing −34.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does STAG Industrial, Inc. (S2TA34) carry?
The net debt of STAG Industrial, Inc. is $3.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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