Boston Beer Company Inc (SAM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Boston Beer Company Inc $273, price $168, upside +62.8%, quality 80 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $161.08 – $1,038 · fair‑value band $204.71 – $341.18 · the $167.69 price screens below the $272.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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The Boston Beer Company, Inc. produces and sells alcohol beverages primarily in the United States. Its flagship beer is Samuel Adams Boston Lager.
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The Boston Beer Company, Inc. produces and sells alcohol beverages primarily in the United States. Its flagship beer is Samuel Adams Boston Lager. The company offers various beers, hard ciders, spirits based ready to drink beverages, distilled spirits, flavored malt beverages, and hard seltzers under the Samuel Adams, Twisted Tea, Truly, Angry Orchard, Dogfish Head, and Sun Cruiser brand names. It markets and sells its products to a network wholesaler in the United States, as well as wholesalers, importers, or other agencies that in turn sell to retailers, such as grocery stores, club stores, convenience stores, liquor stores, bars, restaurants, stadiums, and other traditional and e-commerce retail outlets. It sells its products in Canada, Mexico, and internationally. The Boston Beer Company, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is based in Boston, Massachusetts.
Stock analysis
Boston Beer Company Inc (SAM) currently trades at $167.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $272.95, implying the stock looks roughly 38.6% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $373.49 per share, and 18 of the 24 models we run sit above the $167.69 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $67.94, and 6 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $204.71 (bear) to $341.18 (bull), the price of $167.69 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Boston Beer Company Inc reported revenue of $2.1B in FY2025 versus $2.1B in FY2021, a compound +0.4%/yr. Reported net income was $108M in FY2025, compounding +65.2%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap $1.8B · P/S ratio 0.90 · EPS (TTM) $−6.02 · Net margin 5.2% · Return on equity −7.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.4% · Operating margin 5.0% · Revenue (TTM) $1.9B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 47 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −4% fair-value upside, at 63%, SAM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $204.71Fair Value $272.95Bull $341.18
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.66/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +8.1% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.1%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+14.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+14.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.2% vs 4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 7%
2025 sits 88% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−7.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−0.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.3% a year for the price and −2.4% for the forecasts.
Compare Boston Beer Company Inc with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Beverages - Brewers · 58 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/11 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score80 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+63% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)−3% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−4% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Boston Beer Company Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SAM
Frequently asked questions
Is Boston Beer Company Inc (SAM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $272.95 versus a price of $167.69, about +63% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SAM?
Our model-based fair value for Boston Beer Company Inc is $272.95 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $167.69.
What is the quality score of SAM?
Boston Beer Company Inc has a Quality Score of 80/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Boston Beer Company Inc (SAM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $272.95 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $204.71, optimistic scenario $341.18. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Boston Beer Company Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $272.95, about +63% upside versus a price of $167.69 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $204.71, optimistic scenario $341.18. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Boston Beer Company Inc (SAM)?
Boston Beer Company Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Boston Beer Company Inc (SAM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Boston Beer Company Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -7.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.8 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SAM use?
Our models discount Boston Beer Company Inc at 10.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.78, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Boston Beer Company Inc that is -7.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Boston Beer Company Inc (SAM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Boston Beer Company Inc grew +3.8 % a year. The price currently implies -7.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Boston Beer Company Inc (SAM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Boston Beer Company Inc (-7.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Boston Beer Company Inc (SAM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 12.13 %: that much free cash flow Boston Beer Company Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Boston Beer Company Inc (SAM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Boston Beer Company Inc it is $272.95 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $167.69. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Boston Beer Company Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SAM trades below its calculated fair value: price $167.69, fair value $272.95, a gap of about +63% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SAM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($167.69); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($272.95). For Boston Beer Company Inc the two are $105.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Boston Beer Company Inc worth?
The market values Boston Beer Company Inc at about $1.8B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $167.69; our models calculate a fair value of $272.95 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SAM?
Our models span a range for Boston Beer Company Inc: cautious scenario $204.71, base $272.95, optimistic $341.18 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $167.69). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of SAM?
The PEG ratio of Boston Beer Company Inc is 0.77 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Boston Beer Company Inc (SAM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Boston Beer Company Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −7.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 80/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SAM from its 52-week high?
Boston Beer Company Inc trades at $167.69, about 36% below its 52-week high of $260.05 and 4% above the low of $161.08 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $272.95 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Boston Beer Company Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Anheuser-Busch InBev SA, Heineken N.V, Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A., Constellation Brands, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Boston Beer Company Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $167.69, calculated fair value $272.95 (+63%), Quality Score 80/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SAM calculated?
We run Boston Beer Company Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $272.95, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Boston Beer Company Inc currently trades 63 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Boston Beer Company Inc (SAM)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $167.69. Our model-based fair value is $272.95, about +63% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Boston Beer Company Inc right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (80/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($204.71). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
Where does the earnings growth of Boston Beer Company Inc (SAM) come from?
Earnings per share at Boston Beer Company Inc grew +0.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +10.9 %, EBIT margin −11.6 %, tax rate +1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Boston Beer Company Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Boston Beer Company Inc (SAM)?
The market capitalisation of Boston Beer Company Inc is $1.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Boston Beer Company Inc (SAM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Boston Beer Company Inc is 0.90 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Boston Beer Company Inc (SAM)?
Earnings per share at Boston Beer Company Inc are $−6.02. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Boston Beer Company Inc (SAM)?
The net margin of Boston Beer Company Inc is 5.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Boston Beer Company Inc (SAM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Boston Beer Company Inc is −7.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Boston Beer Company Inc (SAM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Boston Beer Company Inc is 6.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Boston Beer Company Inc (SAM)?
The operating margin of Boston Beer Company Inc is 5.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Boston Beer Company Inc (SAM)?
Revenue at Boston Beer Company Inc is growing −4.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg 0.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Boston Beer Company Inc (SAM)?
Earnings per share at Boston Beer Company Inc are growing +48.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Boston Beer Company Inc (SAM) hold?
Boston Beer Company Inc holds more cash than debt, $186M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Some data
Sep 24, 2026