The Boston Beer Company (SAM) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · US · Market cap $1.8B
The Boston Beer Company
SAM · US
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 25 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from $272.95 to $214.95 (−21.2%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price +4.7% over the past month.
A strong business, screening 15% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- Our model range runs from $161.21 (bear) to $268.69 (bull), base $214.95. The closer the price sits to the lower half, the larger the margin of safety.
- Quality 80/100 (high quality) with high evidence: the data supports the verdict.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $161.08 – $1,137 · fair‑value band $161.21 – $268.69 · the $186.61 price screens below the $214.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
The Boston Beer Company (SAM) currently trades at $186.61, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $214.95, implying the stock looks roughly 15.2% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 80/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, The Boston Beer Company generated revenue of $1.9B at a net margin of -3.2%. Revenue declined 4.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -7.8%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $186M. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $161.21 (bear case) to $268.69 (bull case); at $186.61, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at -8% fair-value upside, at 15%, SAM screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($369.42) versus Dividend Discount ($5.32). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 81 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 35
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
The Boston Beer Company, Inc. produces and sells alcohol beverages primarily in the United States. Its flagship beer is Samuel Adams Boston Lager.
Full company description
The Boston Beer Company, Inc. produces and sells alcohol beverages primarily in the United States. Its flagship beer is Samuel Adams Boston Lager. The company offers various beers, hard ciders, spirits based ready to drink beverages, distilled spirits, flavored malt beverages, and hard seltzers under the Samuel Adams, Twisted Tea, Truly, Angry Orchard, Dogfish Head, and Sun Cruiser brand names. It markets and sells its products to a network wholesaler in the United States, as well as wholesalers, importers, or other agencies that in turn sell to retailers, such as grocery stores, club stores, convenience stores, liquor stores, bars, restaurants, stadiums, and other traditional and e-commerce retail outlets. It sells its products in Canada, Mexico, and internationally. The Boston Beer Company, Inc. was founded in 1984 and is based in Boston, Massachusetts.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
The Boston Beer Company reported revenue of $2.1B in FY2025 versus $2.1B in FY2021, a compound +0.4%/yr. Reported net income was $108M in FY2025, compounding +65.2%/yr from FY2021.
Watch SAM: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- The 5 Most Interesting Analyst Questions From Boston Beer’s Q2 Earnings Call
- Boston Beer Rides RTD Growth While Core Brands Lose More Momentum
- Is SAM Stock Worth Buying After Earnings Misses and Estimate Cuts?
- Boston Beer Faces Weak Demand While Margins and Innovation Diverge
Peer Group
Beverages - Brewers · 52 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Beverages - Brewers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Beverages - Brewers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Anheuser-Busch InBev SA 1ABI | €73.62 | €41.60 | -43% |
| Ambev S.A ABEV | 14,120 ARS | 6,060 ARS | -57% |
| Fomento Económico Mexicano, S.A. FEMSAUBD | 222.91 MXN | 201.74 MXN | -9% |
| Heineken N.V HEIA | €77.24 | €65.06 | -16% |
| Constellation Brands, Inc STZ | $135.72 | $177.43 | +31% |
| Carlsberg A/S CARLA | kr 1,125 | kr 607.30 | -46% |
| Heineken Holding HEIO | €71.20 | €72.67 | +2% |
| Tsingtao Brewery Company 600600 | ¥53.60 | ¥63.65 | +19% |
| Budweiser Brewing Company 1876 | HK$6.58 | HK$6.05 | -8% |
| Molson Coors Canada Inc TPXA | C$63.10 | C$74.42 | +18% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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