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SAP SE (SAPGF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of SAP SE $177, price $202, upside -12.1%, quality 84 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Sep 28, 2026
Broad data
Sep 28, 2026
SAP SE
SAPGF · USGreat Company, Expensive PriceHigh Quality, but the stock trades above estimated Fair Value.
!Fair value $177.38 · Overvalued (−12.1%)
✓Quality 84/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +6.1 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 19.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓1.2% dividend yield · Well covered
✓Wide moat 85/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $71.91 – $302.76 · fair‑value band $123.31 – $249.95 · the $201.80 price screens above the $177.38 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 28, 2026.
Company profile
SAP SE, together with its subsidiaries, provides enterprise application and business solutions worldwide.
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SAP SE, together with its subsidiaries, provides enterprise application and business solutions worldwide. It offers SAP Business AI; SAP S/4HANA that provides software capabilities for finance, risk and project management, procurement, manufacturing, supply chain and asset management, and research and development; SAP SuccessFactors solutions for human resources, including HR, time, payroll, talent and employee experience management, and analytics and planning; and spend management solutions that covers direct and indirect spend, travel and expense, and external workforce management. The company also provides SAP customer experience solutions; SAP Business Technology platform that enables customers and partners to build, integrate, and automate applications; and SAP Business Network, a business-to-business collaboration platform that helps digitalize key business processes across the supply chain and enables communication between trading partners. In addition, it offers SAP Signavio to help customers to discover, analyze, and understand business process operations; industry solutions that provide customers and partners with industry-specific solutions; and SAP LeanIX to visualize enterprise architecture, assess interdependencies and the potential impact of IT modernization, and manage the transition toward the target landscape. Further, the company provides WalkMe to execute workflows; SAP Enable Now, which offers e-learning content embedded in SAP workflows; Taulia solutions for working capital management; and sustainability solutions and services. Additionally, it provides services and support solutions. The company has a strategic collaboration with Fresenius SE & Co. KGaA and Avelios Medical GmbH for the development of a cloud-native, hospital information system that enables digitalization of clinical and administrative processes with AI integration. SAP SE was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Walldorf, Germany.
Stock analysis
SAP SE (SAPGF) currently trades at $201.80, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $177.38, 12.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $175.41 per share, and 4 of the 26 models we run sit above the $201.80 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $28.90, and 22 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $123.31 (bear) to $249.95 (bull), the price of $201.80 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 84/100 (high quality), in the Technology sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
SAP SE reported revenue of €36.8B in FY2025 versus €27.8B in FY2021, a compound +7.2%/yr. Reported net income was €7.3B in FY2025, compounding +8.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $237B · P/E ratio 27.6 · P/S ratio 5.50 · EPS (TTM) $7.20 · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 19.9% · Return on equity 16.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 71 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 26% below its 52-week high and 38% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −12%, SAPGF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $123.31
Fair Value $177.38
Bull $249.95
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.55 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$107.43
$169.75
$267.29
79
Growth DCF
$108.74
$163.00
$242.18
78
Owner Earnings
$103.35
$163.22
$256.91
75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$107.43
$169.75
$267.29
79
Owner Earnings
$103.35
$163.22
$256.91
75
5Y Revenue Exit
$96.32
$152.58
$224.87
72
5Y EBITDA Exit
$128.26
$213.45
$314.29
74
5Y P/E Exit
$126.68
$210.44
$299.86
70
10Y Revenue Exit
$96.51
$149.31
$221.49
66
10Y EBITDA Exit
$119.84
$192.01
$290.95
67
10Y P/E Exit
$118.82
$189.89
$279.74
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$48.02
$163.23
$218.92
64
Lynch FV
$37.42
$53.46
$69.50
61
PEG = 1.0
$37.42
$53.46
$69.50
57
EPV
$70.91
$82.08
$91.85
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$24.27
$50.47
$80.07
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$24.27
$41.82
$52.97
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$148.30
$197.73
$247.17
63
P/S Multiple
$90.04
$120.05
$150.07
58
P/B Multiple
$90.04
$120.05
$150.07
55
EV/EBIT
$182.45
$241.97
$301.50
66
EV/EBITDA
$154.87
$205.20
$255.52
67
EV/Revenue
$94.16
$132.85
$171.54
54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$21.57
$28.90
$43.13
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$108.74
$163.00
$242.18
78
Rev-Margin DCF
$96.32
$152.55
$218.81
72
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$46.03
$59.18
$91.04
74
ROIC Compounder
$76.29
$96.88
$121.77
72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$122.79
$175.41
$228.03
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
84/100
Of which business quality 78 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49
Profitability
62
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
76
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
80
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
83
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
62
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
53
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
26
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
84
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
81/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.6%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.9% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+8.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+6.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.4% vs 8.6%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 28%
2025 sits 135% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+10.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in EUR, euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +8.2% a year for the price and +7.5% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+9.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+11.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+10.6%
Projected 2029 (sales)+9.4%
Projected 2030 (sales)+8.2%
SAPGF screens overvalued: fair value 12% below the price. Compare with Salesforce, Inc →
Compare SAP SE with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Software - Application · 691 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Information Technology sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $229.57 | $342.73 | +49% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | $144.01 | $64.36 | −55% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $134.01 | $147.41 | +10% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $69.36 | $103.69 | +49% |
| Snowflake Inc SNOW | $330.31 | $74.36 | −77% |
| Automatic Data Processing, Inc ADP | $261.80 | $150.01 | −43% |
| Adobe Inc ADBE | $239.94 | $454.04 | +89% |
| Datadog, Inc DDOG | $268.70 | $32.52 | −88% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $326.70 | $225.48 | −31% |
| Intuit Inc INTU | $268.03 | $459.14 | +71% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is SAP SE (SAPGF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $177.38 versus a price of $201.80, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SAPGF?
Our model-based fair value for SAP SE is $177.38 (as of Sep 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $201.80.
What is the quality score of SAPGF?
SAP SE has a Quality Score of 84/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SAP SE (SAPGF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $177.38 (as of Sep 28, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $123.31, optimistic scenario $249.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SAP SE stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $177.38, about −12% upside versus a price of $201.80 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $123.31, optimistic scenario $249.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SAP SE (SAPGF)?
SAP SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €37.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 28, 2026).
Does SAP SE pay a dividend?
SAP SE currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.24% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 28, 2026).
What growth is priced into SAP SE (SAPGF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SAP SE would have to grow free cash flow by +10.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +6.1 % per year. As of Sep 28, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SAPGF use?
Our models discount SAP SE at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.73, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SAP SE that is +10.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SAP SE (SAPGF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SAP SE grew +6.1 % a year. The price currently implies +10.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SAP SE (SAPGF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SAP SE (+10.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SAP SE (SAPGF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.92 %: that much free cash flow SAP SE produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SAP SE (SAPGF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SAP SE it is $177.38 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026), against a price of $201.80. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SAP SE stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 28, 2026, SAPGF trades above its calculated fair value: price $201.80, fair value $177.38, a gap of about −12% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SAPGF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($201.80); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($177.38). For SAP SE the two are $24.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SAP SE worth?
The market values SAP SE at about $237B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 28, 2026). Per share that is $201.80; our models calculate a fair value of $177.38 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SAPGF?
Our models span a range for SAP SE: cautious scenario $123.31, base $177.38, optimistic $249.95 per share (as of Sep 28, 2026, price $201.80). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SAPGF?
SAP SE trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 27.6 (as of Sep 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $177.38 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.4, P/B 5.3, P/S 6.3, EV/EBITDA 20.1.
What is the PEG ratio of SAPGF?
The PEG ratio of SAP SE is 1.43 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 28, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of SAP SE (SAPGF)?
Balance-sheet figures for SAP SE (as of Sep 28, 2026): return on equity 16.4%, debt of 0.09 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 84/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SAPGF from its 52-week high?
SAP SE trades at $201.80, about 26% below its 52-week high of $271.88 and 38% above the low of $146.59 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $177.38 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SAP SE?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Salesforce, Inc, Shopify Inc, ServiceNow, Inc, Uber Technologies, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SAP SE stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 28, 2026: price $201.80, calculated fair value $177.38 (−12%), Quality Score 84/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SAPGF calculated?
We run SAP SE through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $177.38, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. SAP SE itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SAP SE (SAPGF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $201.80. Our model-based fair value is $177.38, about −12% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SAP SE right now?
A fairly wide model range ($123.31 to $249.95) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of SAP SE (SAPGF) come from?
Earnings per share at SAP SE grew +6.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.2 %, EBIT margin −1.2 %, tax rate −0.5 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of SAP SE
How large is the market capitalisation of SAP SE (SAPGF)?
The market capitalisation of SAP SE is $237B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SAP SE (SAPGF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SAP SE is 5.50 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SAP SE (SAPGF)?
Earnings per share at SAP SE are $7.20 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 27.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of SAP SE (SAPGF)?
The dividend yield of SAP SE is 1.2% (payout 34.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of SAP SE (SAPGF)?
The net margin of SAP SE is 19.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SAP SE (SAPGF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SAP SE is 16.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SAP SE (SAPGF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SAP SE is 8.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SAP SE (SAPGF)?
The operating margin of SAP SE is 30.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SAP SE (SAPGF)?
Revenue at SAP SE is growing +6.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SAP SE (SAPGF)?
Earnings per share at SAP SE are growing +9.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does SAP SE (SAPGF) hold?
SAP SE holds more cash than debt, €149M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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