J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 5, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of J Sainsbury PLC stock £3.70, price £3.59, upside +3.0%, quality 63 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 25 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.
Quality 63/100
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
3.8% dividend yield · Sustainable
Broad data
Profit last quarter +30% vs. a year ago.
Fair value £3.70 · Fairly valued (+3.0%)
Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +3.0 %/yr in GBP)
Thin margins · 1.2% net margin (TTM)
Mixed vs. peers(7/15)
Narrow moat33/100 · thin data
Negative coverage
Risks from the AI analysis
🚩Dropped Morrisons talks underscore regulatory hurdles for consolidation🚩Agentic AI could bypass grocery retailers🚩Aldi and Lidl could erode market share🚩Stricter UK grocery regulations could raise costs
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £1.35 – £3.60 · fair‑value band £2.78 – £4.63 · the £3.59 price screens below the £3.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 2, 2026.
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J Sainsbury plc, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the food, general merchandise and clothing retailing, and financial services activities in the United Kingdom. The company operates through Retail and Financial Services segments.
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It sells food, household, general merchandise, clothing, and fuel through convenience stores and supermarkets, as well as online channels. The company also provides banking and insurance services.
It offers its products under the Sainsbury's, Argos, Habitat, Tu, Smart Charge, Nectar, Nectar360, and Sainsbury's Bank brand names. The company was founded in 1869 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY) currently trades at £3.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £3.70, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 2.9%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £6.91 per share, and 15 of the 25 models we run sit above the £3.59 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at £1.63, and 10 of the 25 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £2.78 (bear) to £4.63 (bull), the price of £3.59 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
J Sainsbury PLC reported revenue of £33.6B in FY2026 versus £29.9B in FY2022, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was £384M in FY2026, compounding −13.2%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap £8.3B Large · P/E ratio 18.9 · P/S ratio 0.25 · EPS (TTM) £0.1900 · Dividend yield 3.8% · Net margin 1.2% · Return on equity 6.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at 3%, SBRY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear£2.78Fair Value £3.70Bull£4.63
Price £3.59 · Upside +3.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 8 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.0364 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.51/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.7% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +1.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)3.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1.3% vs −1.6%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 3%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2026 sits 88% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−9.3%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+0.3%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −11.4% a year for the price and −2.0% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: A sharpened focus on food retail stands as the main strength, yet the limited durable moat in the competitive UK grocery market with thin margins forms the central weakness.
Main risk: Agentic AI tools might automate basket building and price comparisons across retailers, reducing the need for direct customer interaction with Sainsbury stores or applications and pressuring margins through lower visibility.
Bull case: Sainsbury could integrate agentic AI into its own platforms and loyalty programme to retain control over customer journeys and even expand into AI-driven services for suppliers or advertisers.
Bear case: If agentic AI dominates shopping decisions, Sainsbury might see its physical and online channels become largely irrelevant for routine grocery purchases, leading to sharply lower volumes and the need for major business model changes.
Sainsbury’s continues to sharpen its focus on food retail after exiting general merchandise while facing relentless pressure from discounters in a slow-growing market. Exploratory talks with Morrisons earlier this year that were later dropped underscore both the drive for greater scale through consolidation and the significant regulatory hurdles any such move would face. Will added size strengthen its position against low-cost rivals or mainly trigger store divestments and renewed competition scrutiny?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Grocery Stores · 73 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score63 · Above median
Fair Value upside+3.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)6.4% · Below median
Return on assets2.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)1.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)3.5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.6% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)3.8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Grocery Stores median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)18.9× · Pricier than median
P/B1.36× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months)0.25× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year)7.0× · Cheaper than median
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Is J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £3.70 versus a price of £3.59, about +3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of SBRY?
Our model-based fair value for J Sainsbury PLC is £3.70 (as of Nov 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £3.59.
What is the quality score of SBRY?
J Sainsbury PLC has a Quality Score of 63/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £3.70 (as of Nov 2, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario £2.78, optimistic scenario £4.63. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the J Sainsbury PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £3.70, about +3% upside versus a price of £3.59 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario £2.78, optimistic scenario £4.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY)?
J Sainsbury PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £33.6B (latest available figure, as of Nov 2, 2026).
Does J Sainsbury PLC pay a dividend?
J Sainsbury PLC currently shows a dividend yield of 3.81% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 2, 2026).
What growth is priced into J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, J Sainsbury PLC would have to grow free cash flow by -9.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +3.0 % per year. As of Nov 2, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SBRY use?
Our models discount J Sainsbury PLC at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.98, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For J Sainsbury PLC that is -9.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at J Sainsbury PLC grew +3.0 % a year. The price currently implies -9.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into J Sainsbury PLC (-9.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 14.20 %: that much free cash flow J Sainsbury PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For J Sainsbury PLC it is £3.70 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026), against a price of £3.59. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is J Sainsbury PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 2, 2026, SBRY trades below its calculated fair value: price £3.59, fair value £3.70, a gap of about +3% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SBRY?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£3.59); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£3.70). For J Sainsbury PLC the two are £0.1080 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is J Sainsbury PLC worth?
The market values J Sainsbury PLC at about £8.3B (market capitalisation, as of Nov 2, 2026). Per share that is £3.59; our models calculate a fair value of £3.70 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SBRY?
Our models span a range for J Sainsbury PLC: cautious scenario £2.78, base £3.70, optimistic £4.63 per share (as of Nov 2, 2026, price £3.59). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SBRY?
J Sainsbury PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.9 (as of Nov 2, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £3.70 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2017 to 2026), reported earnings: 25.4. Other multiples: PEG 3.7, P/B 1.4, P/S 0.2, EV/EBITDA 5.5.
What is the PEG ratio of SBRY?
The PEG ratio of J Sainsbury PLC is 3.70 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 2, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY)?
Balance-sheet figures for J Sainsbury PLC (as of Nov 2, 2026): return on equity 6.4%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 63/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SBRY from its 52-week high?
J Sainsbury PLC trades at £3.59, at its 52-week high of £3.60 and 25% above the low of £2.87 (as of Nov 5, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £3.70 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to J Sainsbury PLC?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Loblaw Companies Limited, The Kroger Co, Woolworths Group, Koninklijke Ahold Delhaize N.V, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is J Sainsbury PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 2, 2026: price £3.59, calculated fair value £3.70 (+3%), Quality Score 63/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SBRY calculated?
We run J Sainsbury PLC through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £3.70, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.5% above its aggregate fair value. J Sainsbury PLC currently trades 3% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY)?
The closing price on Nov 5, 2026 was £3.59. Our model-based fair value is £3.70, about +3% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with J Sainsbury PLC right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY) come from?
Earnings per share at J Sainsbury PLC grew −6.7 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.5 %, EBIT margin +1.3 %, tax rate −3.8 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of J Sainsbury PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY)?
The market capitalisation of J Sainsbury PLC is £8.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of J Sainsbury PLC is 0.25 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY)?
Earnings per share at J Sainsbury PLC are £0.1900 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY)?
The dividend yield of J Sainsbury PLC is 3.8% (payout 72.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY)?
The net margin of J Sainsbury PLC is 1.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of J Sainsbury PLC is 6.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of J Sainsbury PLC is 3.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY)?
The operating margin of J Sainsbury PLC is 3.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY)?
Revenue at J Sainsbury PLC is growing +2.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY)?
Earnings per share at J Sainsbury PLC are growing +29.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does J Sainsbury PLC (SBRY) carry?
The net debt of J Sainsbury PLC is £5.9B (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 5.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 2, 2026