Stadio Holdings (SDO) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Defensive · ZA · Market cap 10.9B ZAC
Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 28 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 13, 2026, revised from R7.54 to R7.57 (+0.4%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +0.5% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 41% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (R5.35 to R13.06) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R2.55 – R13.73 · fair‑value band R5.35 – R13.06 · the R12.85 price screens above the R7.57 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.
Analysis
Stadio Holdings (SDO) currently trades at R12.85, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R7.57, implying the stock looks roughly 41.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Stadio Holdings generated revenue of 1.8B ZAR at a net margin of 17.8%. Revenue grew 12.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.4%. Net debt stands at 95.8M ZAR. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R5.35 (bear case) to R13.06 (bull case); at R12.85, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 17% fair-value upside, at -41%, SDO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (R17.18) versus Asset-Based (R1.65). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 65 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Stadio Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides higher education programs in South Africa and Namibia. The company offers undergraduate programs, including higher certificates, diplomas, and degrees; and post-graduate programs, such as honors and master's degrees, and doctorates through contact and distance learning modules.
Full company description
Stadio Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides higher education programs in South Africa and Namibia. The company offers undergraduate programs, including higher certificates, diplomas, and degrees; and post-graduate programs, such as honors and master's degrees, and doctorates through contact and distance learning modules. It also provides programs across its schools of accounting, business, commerce, financial planning and insurance, and banking and investment; administration and management; education; film; architecture and spatial design; media and design; fashion; information technology; law; policing and law enforcement; arts and humanities; live performance and creative writing; and engineering. In addition, the company operates the STADIO Higher Education, Milpark Education, and AFDA higher education institutions. Stadio Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2016 and is based in Cape Town, South Africa.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Stadio Holdings reported revenue of R1.8B in FY2025 versus R1.1B in FY2021, a compound +13.8%/yr. Reported net income was R328M in FY2025, compounding +27.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +33.3 pp · buybacks/dilution −9.6 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
SDO screens 41% overvalued. Compare with New Oriental Education & Technology Group →
Peer Group
Education & Training Services · 148 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Education & Training Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Education & Training Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Oriental Education & Technology Group EDUN | 966.48 MXN | 897.37 MXN | -7% |
| TAL Education Group TAL | $10.24 | $15.60 | +52% |
| Laureate Education, Inc LAUR | $36.45 | $41.45 | +14% |
| Physicswallah Limited PWL | ₹131.59 | ₹14.81 | -89% |
| Grand Canyon Education, Inc LOPE | $149.00 | $152.01 | +2% |
| Covista Inc CVSA | $116.22 | $135.45 | +17% |
| Stride, Inc LRN | $83.39 | $139.45 | +67% |
| Universal Technical Institute, Inc UTI | $40.33 | $21.35 | -47% |
| Perdoceo Education Corporation PRDO | $31.66 | $41.45 | +31% |
| Strategic Education, Inc STRA | $84.18 | $105.48 | +25% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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