Stadio Holdings Ltd (SDO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Stadio Holdings Ltd ZAR 7.57, price ZAR 16.25, upside -53.4%, quality 68 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R2.56 – R18.49 · fair‑value band R2.75 – R9.49 · the R16.25 price screens above the R7.57 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Stadio Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides higher education programs in South Africa and Namibia. The company offers undergraduate programs, including higher certificates, diplomas, and degrees; and post-graduate programs, such as honors and master's degrees, and doctorates through contact and distance learning modules.
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Stadio Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, provides higher education programs in South Africa and Namibia. The company offers undergraduate programs, including higher certificates, diplomas, and degrees; and post-graduate programs, such as honors and master's degrees, and doctorates through contact and distance learning modules. It also provides programs across its schools of accounting, business, commerce, financial planning and insurance, and banking and investment; administration and management; education; film; architecture and spatial design; media and design; fashion; information technology; law; policing and law enforcement; arts and humanities; live performance and creative writing; and engineering. In addition, the company operates the STADIO Higher Education, Milpark Education, and AFDA higher education institutions. Stadio Holdings Limited was incorporated in 2016 and is based in Cape Town, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Stadio Holdings Ltd (SDO) currently trades at R16.25, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R7.57, implying the stock looks roughly 114.7% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of R17.18 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the R16.25 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R1.65, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: R2.75 (bear) to R9.49 (bull), the price of R16.25 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Stadio Holdings Ltd reported revenue of 1.8B ZAR in FY2025 versus 1.1B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +13.8%/yr. Reported net income was 328M ZAR in FY2025, compounding +27.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 14.0B ZAC · P/E ratio 42.8 · P/S ratio 7.61 · EPS (TTM) R0.3800 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 17.8% · Return on equity 16.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 52 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at 14% fair-value upside, at −53%, SDO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R2.75Fair Value R7.57Bull R9.49
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.1439 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.91/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+14.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +47.2% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+44.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
≈ +20.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+18.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.27% vs 40%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 25%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 57% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+49.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +44.6% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Education & Training Services · 141 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score68 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−53% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)16% · Above median
Return on assets11% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)18% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)24% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth13% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.1% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Education & Training Services median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)42.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B6.75× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)7.61× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF5.3× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA27.6× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 47
FUTURE (revenue growth)63· sector 29
PAST (return on equity)65· sector 29
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)23· sector 60
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Stadio Holdings Ltd (SDO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R7.57 versus a price of R16.25, about −53% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SDO?
Our model-based fair value for Stadio Holdings Ltd is R7.57 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R16.25.
What is the quality score of SDO?
Stadio Holdings Ltd has a Quality Score of 68/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Stadio Holdings Ltd (SDO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R7.57 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario R2.75, optimistic scenario R9.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Stadio Holdings Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R7.57, about −53% upside versus a price of R16.25 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R2.75, optimistic scenario R9.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Stadio Holdings Ltd (SDO)?
Stadio Holdings Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.8B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Stadio Holdings Ltd pay a dividend?
Stadio Holdings Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.13% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Stadio Holdings Ltd (SDO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Stadio Holdings Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +49.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.6 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SDO use?
Our models discount Stadio Holdings Ltd at 13.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.01, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Stadio Holdings Ltd that is +49.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Stadio Holdings Ltd (SDO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Stadio Holdings Ltd grew +14.6 % a year. The price currently implies +49.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Stadio Holdings Ltd (SDO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Stadio Holdings Ltd (+49.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Stadio Holdings Ltd (SDO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.14 %: that much free cash flow Stadio Holdings Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Stadio Holdings Ltd (SDO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Stadio Holdings Ltd it is R7.57 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R16.25. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Stadio Holdings Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SDO trades above its calculated fair value: price R16.25, fair value R7.57, a gap of about −53% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SDO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R16.25); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R7.57). For Stadio Holdings Ltd the two are R8.68 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Stadio Holdings Ltd worth?
The market values Stadio Holdings Ltd at about 14.0B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R16.25; our models calculate a fair value of R7.57 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SDO?
Our models span a range for Stadio Holdings Ltd: cautious scenario R2.75, base R7.57, optimistic R9.49 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R16.25). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SDO?
Stadio Holdings Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 42.8 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R7.57 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 6.8, P/S 7.6, EV/EBITDA 27.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Stadio Holdings Ltd (SDO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Stadio Holdings Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 16.4%. They feed the Quality Score of 68/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SDO from its 52-week high?
Stadio Holdings Ltd trades at R16.25, about 12% below its 52-week high of R18.49 and 64% above the low of R9.90 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R7.57 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Stadio Holdings Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value New Oriental Education & Technology Group, TAL Education Group, Laureate Education, Inc, Grand Canyon Education, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Stadio Holdings Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R16.25, calculated fair value R7.57 (−53%), Quality Score 68/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SDO calculated?
We run Stadio Holdings Ltd through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R7.57, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Stadio Holdings Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Stadio Holdings Ltd (SDO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was R16.25. Our model-based fair value is R7.57, about −53% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Stadio Holdings Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R9.49). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The model range is unusually wide (R2.75 to R9.49). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Stadio Holdings Ltd (SDO) come from?
Earnings per share at Stadio Holdings Ltd grew +37.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +23.6 %, EBIT margin +1.3 %, tax rate +5.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +4.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Stadio Holdings Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Stadio Holdings Ltd (SDO)?
The market capitalisation of Stadio Holdings Ltd is 14.0B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Stadio Holdings Ltd (SDO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Stadio Holdings Ltd is 7.61 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Stadio Holdings Ltd (SDO)?
Earnings per share at Stadio Holdings Ltd are R0.3800 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 42.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Stadio Holdings Ltd (SDO)?
The dividend yield of Stadio Holdings Ltd is 1.1% (payout 48.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Stadio Holdings Ltd (SDO)?
The net margin of Stadio Holdings Ltd is 17.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Stadio Holdings Ltd (SDO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Stadio Holdings Ltd is 16.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Stadio Holdings Ltd (SDO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Stadio Holdings Ltd is 15.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Stadio Holdings Ltd (SDO)?
The operating margin of Stadio Holdings Ltd is 23.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Stadio Holdings Ltd (SDO)?
Revenue at Stadio Holdings Ltd is growing +12.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +14.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Stadio Holdings Ltd (SDO)?
Earnings per share at Stadio Holdings Ltd are growing +21.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Stadio Holdings Ltd (SDO) carry?
The net debt of Stadio Holdings Ltd is 95.8M ZAC (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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