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SEGRO Plc (SEGXF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of SEGRO Plc $4.64, price $12.00, upside -61.3%, quality 47 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? No
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Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
Broad data
Sep 23, 2026
SEGRO Plc
SEGXF · USWeakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $4.64 · Strongly overvalued (−61.3%)
!Quality 47/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +11.0 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 75.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓2.6% dividend yield · Well covered
!Moderate moat 64/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.59 – $16.65 · fair‑value band $3.48 – $5.81 · the $12.00 price screens above the $4.64 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
Company profile
SEGRO Plc is a UK Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), listed on the London Stock Exchange and Euronext Paris, and is a leading owner, manager and developer of modern warehouses and industrial property.
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SEGRO Plc is a UK Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT), listed on the London Stock Exchange and Euronext Paris, and is a leading owner, manager and developer of modern warehouses and industrial property. It owns or manages 10.9 million square meters of space (117 million square feet) valued at 22.0 billion pounds serving customers from a wide range of industry sectors. Its properties are in and around major cities and at key transportation hubs in the UK and in seven other European countries. For over 100 years SEGRO has been creating space that enables extraordinary things to happen. From modern big box warehouses, used primarily for regional, national and international distribution hubs, to urban warehousing located close to major population centres and business districts, it provides high quality assets that allow its customers to thrive. A commitment to be a force for society and environmental good is integral to SEGRO's purpose and strategy. Its Responsible SEGRO framework focuses on three long-term priorities where the company believes it can make the greatest impact: Championing low-carbon growth, Investing in local communities and environments and Nurturing talent. SEGRO Plc was incorporated in 1920 in United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
SEGRO Plc (SEGXF) currently trades at $12.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.64, 61.3% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $9.28 per share, and 0 of the 16 models we run sit above the $12.00 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $1.06, and 16 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $3.48 (bear) to $5.81 (bull), the price of $12.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 47/100 (below-average quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
SEGRO Plc reported revenue of £726M in FY2025 versus £546M in FY2021, a compound +7.4%/yr. Reported net income was £551M in FY2025, compounding −39.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $21.9B · P/E ratio 21.8 · P/S ratio 16.6 · EPS (TTM) $0.5500 · Dividend yield 2.6% · Net margin 75.9% · Return on equity 4.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at 27% fair-value upside, at −61%, SEGXF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $3.48
Fair Value $4.64
Bull $5.81
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.1807 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$9.16
$9.28
$9.72
76
FCF DCF
$0.2100
$2.84
$6.80
70
5Y Revenue Exit
n/a
$1.17
$3.70
69
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$0.2100
$2.84
$6.80
70
5Y Revenue Exit
n/a
$1.17
$3.70
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
$0.4400
$3.56
$7.16
68
10Y Revenue Exit
n/a
$1.31
$3.80
64
10Y EBITDA Exit
$0.3100
$2.96
$6.41
61
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$3.64
$7.57
$12.00
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$3.64
$5.88
$7.94
66
Multiples
P/S Multiple
$3.46
$4.62
$5.77
58
P/B Multiple
$6.87
$9.17
$11.46
55
EV/EBIT
$2.72
$5.21
$7.70
63
EV/EBITDA
$1.24
$3.23
$5.22
62
EV/Revenue
n/a
$0.2400
>$0.9600
50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$6.01
$8.05
$12.01
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$0.3000
$2.66
$6.00
69
Rev-Margin DCF
n/a
$1.06
$3.20
69
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$9.16
$9.28
$9.72
76
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
47/100
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Profitability
34
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
29
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
78
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
52
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
89
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
41
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
77
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
77
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
88/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.3% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−22.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−24.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−24.6% vs −10.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.62% → 64%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+30.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in GBP, UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +27.0% a year for the price and +2.7% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+1.6%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+6.8%
Projected 2028 (sales)+6.2%
Projected 2029 (sales)+5.6%
Projected 2030 (sales)+5.0%
Recent news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (29 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
- Form 8.3 Segro plc
- Dimensional Fund Advisors Ltd. : Form 8.3 - SEGRO PLC - Ordinary Shares
- Prologis says $18.8B takeover of Segro moving forward
Compare SEGRO Plc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Industrial · 53 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Industrial median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Real Estate sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Real Estate
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Industrial stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Public Storage, a member of the S&P 500, PSA | $284.79 | $231.96 | −19% |
| Prologis, Inc PLDGP | $51.10 | $65.89 | +29% |
| Extra Space Storage Inc EXR | $133.08 | $201.75 | +52% |
| EastGroup Properties, Inc EGP | $201.52 | $132.89 | −34% |
| Lineage, Inc LINE | $36.15 | $47.91 | +33% |
| CapitaLand Ascendas REIT (CLAR) A17U | 2.28 SGD | 2.89 SGD | +27% |
| Rexford Industrial Realty, Inc REXR | $37.47 | $18.50 | −51% |
| CubeSmart CUBE | $37.53 | $34.92 | −7% |
| First Industrial Realty Trust, Inc FR | $61.17 | $18.59 | −70% |
| STAG Industrial, Inc STAG | $37.01 | $49.93 | +35% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is SEGRO Plc (SEGXF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.64 versus a price of $12.00, about −61% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SEGXF?
Our model-based fair value for SEGRO Plc is $4.64 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $12.00.
What is the quality score of SEGXF?
SEGRO Plc has a Quality Score of 47/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SEGRO Plc (SEGXF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.64 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.48, optimistic scenario $5.81. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SEGRO Plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.64, about −61% upside versus a price of $12.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.48, optimistic scenario $5.81. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SEGRO Plc (SEGXF)?
SEGRO Plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £726M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does SEGRO Plc pay a dividend?
SEGRO Plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.59% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into SEGRO Plc (SEGXF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SEGRO Plc would have to grow free cash flow by +30.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SEGXF use?
Our models discount SEGRO Plc at 9.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.14, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SEGRO Plc that is +30.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SEGRO Plc (SEGXF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SEGRO Plc grew +11.0 % a year. The price currently implies +30.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SEGRO Plc (SEGXF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SEGRO Plc (+30.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SEGRO Plc (SEGXF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.22 %: that much free cash flow SEGRO Plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SEGRO Plc (SEGXF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SEGRO Plc it is $4.64 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $12.00. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SEGRO Plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SEGXF trades above its calculated fair value: price $12.00, fair value $4.64, a gap of about −61% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SEGXF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($12.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.64). For SEGRO Plc the two are $7.36 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SEGRO Plc worth?
The market values SEGRO Plc at about $21.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $12.00; our models calculate a fair value of $4.64 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SEGXF?
Our models span a range for SEGRO Plc: cautious scenario $3.48, base $4.64, optimistic $5.81 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $12.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SEGXF?
SEGRO Plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.8 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $4.64 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.1, P/B 1.1, P/S 18.0, EV/EBITDA 34.7.
What is the PEG ratio of SEGXF?
The PEG ratio of SEGRO Plc is 2.11 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of SEGRO Plc (SEGXF)?
Balance-sheet figures for SEGRO Plc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 4.5%, debt of 0.40 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 47/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SEGXF from its 52-week high?
SEGRO Plc trades at $12.00, about 9% below its 52-week high of $13.25 and 41% above the low of $8.54 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.64 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SEGRO Plc?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Public Storage, a member of the S&P 500,, Prologis, Inc, Extra Space Storage Inc, EastGroup Properties, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SEGRO Plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $12.00, calculated fair value $4.64 (−61%), Quality Score 47/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SEGXF calculated?
We run SEGRO Plc through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.64, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. SEGRO Plc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SEGRO Plc (SEGXF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $12.00. Our model-based fair value is $4.64, about −61% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SEGRO Plc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($5.81). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (47/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of SEGRO Plc (SEGXF) come from?
Earnings per share at SEGRO Plc grew −7.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.0 %, EBIT margin +2.1 %, tax rate −0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −12.6 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of SEGRO Plc
How large is the market capitalisation of SEGRO Plc (SEGXF)?
The market capitalisation of SEGRO Plc is $21.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SEGRO Plc (SEGXF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SEGRO Plc is 16.6 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SEGRO Plc (SEGXF)?
Earnings per share at SEGRO Plc are $0.5500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of SEGRO Plc (SEGXF)?
The dividend yield of SEGRO Plc is 2.6% (payout 56.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of SEGRO Plc (SEGXF)?
The net margin of SEGRO Plc is 75.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SEGRO Plc (SEGXF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SEGRO Plc is 4.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SEGRO Plc (SEGXF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SEGRO Plc is 4.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SEGRO Plc (SEGXF)?
The operating margin of SEGRO Plc is 67.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SEGRO Plc (SEGXF)?
Revenue at SEGRO Plc is growing +7.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SEGRO Plc (SEGXF)?
Earnings per share at SEGRO Plc are growing −18.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does SEGRO Plc (SEGXF) carry?
The net debt of SEGRO Plc is £4.9B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 13.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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