Seplat Energy Plc (SEPLF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 18, 2026: fair value of Seplat Energy Plc $12.61, price $11.46, upside +10.0%, quality 60 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
30‑month range $1.49 – $11.46 · fair‑value band $8.82 – $16.38 · the $11.46 price screens below the $12.61 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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Seplat Energy Plc, an independent energy company, engages in the oil and gas exploration and production, and gas processing activities in Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Americas. It operates through two segments, Oil and Gas. The company explores, develops, and produces crude oil; and processes and produces gas. It also operates oil and gas assets.
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Seplat Energy Plc, an independent energy company, engages in the oil and gas exploration and production, and gas processing activities in Africa, Asia, Europe, and the Americas. It operates through two segments, Oil and Gas. The company explores, develops, and produces crude oil; and processes and produces gas. It also operates oil and gas assets. In addition, the company is involved in the provision of technical, liaison, and administrative support services relating to oil and gas exploration and production. Seplat Energy Plc was formerly known as Seplat Petroleum Development Company Plc and changed its name to Seplat Energy Plc in May 2021. The company was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Lagos, Nigeria.
Stock analysis
Seplat Energy Plc (SEPLF) currently trades at $11.46, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.61, implying the stock looks roughly 9.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $24.00 per share, and 13 of the 24 models we run sit above the $11.46 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.04, and 11 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $8.82 (bear) to $16.38 (bull), the price of $11.46 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Seplat Energy Plc reported revenue of $2.7B in FY2025 versus $733M in FY2021, a compound +38.9%/yr. Reported net income was $160M in FY2025, compounding +3.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $6.9B · P/E ratio 38.2 · P/S ratio 2.24 · EPS (TTM) $0.3000 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 5.9% · Return on equity 9.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 33 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 381% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 10%, SEPLF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $8.82Fair Value $12.61Bull $16.38
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0761 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+144.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+42.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+38.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+20.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+18.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.20% → 24%
2025 sits 89% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−8.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−6.7%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −10.9% a year for the price and −8.9% for the forecasts.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 306 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+10% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Above median
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)6% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)24% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.51× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Seplat Energy Plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SEPLF
Frequently asked questions
Is Seplat Energy Plc (SEPLF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $12.61 versus a price of $11.46, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SEPLF?
Our model-based fair value for Seplat Energy Plc is $12.61 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.46.
What is the quality score of SEPLF?
Seplat Energy Plc has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Seplat Energy Plc (SEPLF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $12.61 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $8.82, optimistic scenario $16.38. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Seplat Energy Plc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $12.61, about +10% upside versus a price of $11.46 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $8.82, optimistic scenario $16.38. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Seplat Energy Plc (SEPLF)?
Seplat Energy Plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Seplat Energy Plc pay a dividend?
Seplat Energy Plc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.71% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Seplat Energy Plc (SEPLF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Seplat Energy Plc would have to grow free cash flow by -8.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +38.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SEPLF use?
Our models discount Seplat Energy Plc at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.11, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Seplat Energy Plc that is -8.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Seplat Energy Plc (SEPLF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Seplat Energy Plc grew +38.7 % a year. The price currently implies -8.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Seplat Energy Plc (SEPLF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Seplat Energy Plc (-8.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Seplat Energy Plc (SEPLF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.07 %: that much free cash flow Seplat Energy Plc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Seplat Energy Plc (SEPLF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Seplat Energy Plc it is $12.61 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $11.46. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Seplat Energy Plc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SEPLF trades below its calculated fair value: price $11.46, fair value $12.61, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SEPLF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.46); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($12.61). For Seplat Energy Plc the two are $1.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Seplat Energy Plc worth?
The market values Seplat Energy Plc at about $6.9B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $11.46; our models calculate a fair value of $12.61 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SEPLF?
Our models span a range for Seplat Energy Plc: cautious scenario $8.82, base $12.61, optimistic $16.38 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $11.46). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SEPLF?
Seplat Energy Plc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 38.2 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $12.61 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 3.8, P/S 2.5, EV/EBITDA 6.4.
How solid is the balance sheet of Seplat Energy Plc (SEPLF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Seplat Energy Plc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.3%, debt of 0.51 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SEPLF from its 52-week high?
Seplat Energy Plc trades at $11.46, at its 52-week high of $11.46 and 381% above the low of $2.38 (as of Sep 18, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $12.61 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Seplat Energy Plc?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Seplat Energy Plc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $11.46, calculated fair value $12.61 (+10%), Quality Score 60/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SEPLF calculated?
We run Seplat Energy Plc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $12.61, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Seplat Energy Plc currently trades 10 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Seplat Energy Plc (SEPLF)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was $11.46. Our model-based fair value is $12.61, about +10% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Seplat Energy Plc right now?
A fairly wide model range ($8.82 to $16.38) leaves room in how you read the outcome. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Key figures of Seplat Energy Plc
How large is the market capitalisation of Seplat Energy Plc (SEPLF)?
The market capitalisation of Seplat Energy Plc is $6.9B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Seplat Energy Plc (SEPLF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Seplat Energy Plc is 2.24 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Seplat Energy Plc (SEPLF)?
Earnings per share at Seplat Energy Plc are $0.3000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 38.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Seplat Energy Plc (SEPLF)?
The dividend yield of Seplat Energy Plc is 1.7% (payout 65.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Seplat Energy Plc (SEPLF)?
The net margin of Seplat Energy Plc is 5.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Seplat Energy Plc (SEPLF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Seplat Energy Plc is 9.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Seplat Energy Plc (SEPLF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Seplat Energy Plc is 8.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Seplat Energy Plc (SEPLF)?
The operating margin of Seplat Energy Plc is 24.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Seplat Energy Plc (SEPLF)?
Revenue at Seplat Energy Plc is growing +3.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +42.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Seplat Energy Plc (SEPLF)?
Earnings per share at Seplat Energy Plc are growing +87.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Seplat Energy Plc (SEPLF) carry?
The net debt of Seplat Energy Plc is $673M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.7 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Sep 24, 2026