Serve Robotics Inc (SERV) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $595M
Serve Robotics Inc
SERV · US
Fair value as of: Jul 24, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Share price −13.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 56% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.80). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (18/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($1.48 to $2.80) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (2 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
29‑month range $1.82 – $25.00 · fair‑value band $1.48 – $2.80 · the $5.09 price screens above the $2.24 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 24, 2026.
Analysis
Serve Robotics Inc (SERV) currently trades at $5.09, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.24, implying the stock looks roughly 56.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 18/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at $5.2M. It earns a return on equity of -52.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $101M. Fundamentals as of Jul 24, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.48 (bear case) to $2.80 (bull case); at $5.09, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 73% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -56%, SERV screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 24, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 27 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 0
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Serve Robotics Inc. designs, develops, and operates low-emission robots that serve people in public and commercial spaces for food delivery activity in the United States. It builds self-driving delivery robots. Serve Robotics Inc. was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Redwood City, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Serve Robotics Inc reported revenue of $2.7M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$101M in FY2025.
SERV screens 56% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- SERV Q2 Loss Wider Than Expected, Revenues Increase Y/Y, Stock Down
- Serve Robotics is Crashing: Buy the Dip?
- Serve Robotics Surges 13%, Ouster Climbs 6%, Symbotic Gains 4% as Robotics Stocks Rally
- Serve Robotics to Report Q2 Earnings: What to Expect From the Stock?
Peer Group
Specialty Industrial Machinery · 809 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 24, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova Inc 1GEV | €887.60 | €186.93 | -79% |
| 1SIE 1SIE | €273.20 | €91.93 | -66% |
| SMNS SMNS | C$31.76 | C$22.68 | -29% |
| Eaton Corporation ETN | $407.28 | $171.92 | -58% |
| Atlas Copco AB ATCOA | kr 195.15 | kr 112.59 | -42% |
| Sandvik AB SAND | kr 384.10 | kr 193.01 | -50% |
| Doosan Enerbility Co 034020 | 76,400 KRW | 7,938 KRW | -90% |
| Vestas Wind Systems A/S VWS | kr 178.10 | kr 124.54 | -30% |
| Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co 002050 | ¥43.20 | ¥22.68 | -48% |
| NARI Technology Co 600406 | ¥22.19 | ¥18.71 | -16% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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