Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Serve Robotics Inc. stock $2.18, price $3.22, that is 32.4% below the price, quality 27 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with one of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.
How to read this chart
32‑month range $1.82 – $25.00 · fair‑value band $1.44 – $2.72 · the $3.22 price screens above the $2.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.
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Serve Robotics Inc. designs, develops, and operates low-emission robots that serve people in public and commercial spaces for food delivery activity in the United States. It builds self-driving delivery robots. Serve Robotics Inc. was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in Redwood City, California.
Stock analysis
Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV) currently trades at $3.22, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.18, 32% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: $1.44 (bear) to $2.72 (bull), the price of $3.22 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 27/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Serve Robotics Inc. Common Stock reported revenue of $2.7M in FY2025 versus $0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −$101M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $282M Micro · P/S ratio 28.4 · EPS (TTM) $−2.61 · Return on equity −70.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −233% (5-year average) · Operating margin −2,158% · Revenue growth (YoY) +313% · Free cash flow −$118M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 5 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 79% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −36% fair-value upside, at −32%, SERV screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$1.44Fair Value $2.18Bull$2.72
Price $3.22 · Downside -32.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
NCAV (Graham)$1.69$2.56$3.2054
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$1.69$2.56$3.2054
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
In the last 6 months, 4 officers or directors sold shares worth $818,093 and none bought.
SaleBrian ReadChief Financial Officer15× since Dec 2, 2025: 77,825 shares, avg. $8.21$638,845Aug 19, 2026
SaleTouraj ParangPresident & COO, Director9× since Dec 11, 2025: 84,740 shares, avg. $7.81$661,919Aug 18, 2026
SaleAli KashaniChief Executive Officer, Director9× since Dec 11, 2025: 158,659 shares, avg. $8.37$1.3MAug 18, 2026
SaleDavid Michael GoldbergDirector10,600 shares at $7.20$76,320Jun 16, 202610b5-1 plan
SaleAnthony ArmentaChief Software & Data Officer6× since Nov 14, 2025: 68,200 shares, avg. $9.87$673,347Mar 13, 2026
SaleEuan AbrahamChief Hardware & Mftg Offcr5× since Dec 11, 2025: 9,137 shares, avg. $11.05$100,918Mar 10, 2026
SaleEvan DunnGeneral Counsel5× since Dec 8, 2025: 5,028 shares, avg. $10.73$53,971Mar 6, 2026
Plus 7 other filings such as grants, option exercises or tax withholding. They are not market purchases or sales.
Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.28/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+46.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+190.8%
’22
’23
’24
’25
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−19,433.5% (2022) → −4,253.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Integrated Freight & Logistics · 210 stocks
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Serve Robotics Inc. Common Stock Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SERV
Frequently asked questions
Is Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.18 versus a price of $3.22, about 32% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SERV?
Our model-based fair value for Serve Robotics Inc. is $2.18 (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.22.
What is the quality score of SERV?
Serve Robotics Inc. has a Quality Score of 27/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.18 (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.44, optimistic scenario $2.72. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Serve Robotics Inc. Common Stock stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.18, about 32% lower versus a price of $3.22 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.44, optimistic scenario $2.72. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the intrinsic value of Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Serve Robotics Inc. it is $2.18 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of $3.22. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models in 1 family (Asset-Based).
Is Serve Robotics Inc. Common Stock stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, SERV trades above its calculated fair value: price $3.22, fair value $2.18, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SERV?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.22); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.18). For Serve Robotics Inc. the two are $1.04 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Serve Robotics Inc. Common Stock worth?
The market values Serve Robotics Inc. at about $282M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is $3.22; our models calculate a fair value of $2.18 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SERV?
Our models span a range for Serve Robotics Inc.: cautious scenario $1.44, base $2.18, optimistic $2.72 per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price $3.22). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV)?
Balance-sheet figures for Serve Robotics Inc. (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity −70.2%, debt of 0.00 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 27/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SERV from its 52-week high?
Serve Robotics Inc. trades at $3.22, about 79% below its 52-week high of $15.41 and 39% above the low of $2.32 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.18 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Serve Robotics Inc. Common Stock?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value United Parcel Service, Inc, FedEx Corporation, Deutsche Post AG, DSV A/S, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Serve Robotics Inc. Common Stock stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price $3.22, calculated fair value $2.18 (−32%), Quality Score 27/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SERV calculated?
We run Serve Robotics Inc. through 1 models from 1 family: Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $2.18 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Serve Robotics Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $3.22. Our model-based fair value is $2.18, about 32% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Serve Robotics Inc. Common Stock right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (27/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range ($1.44 to $2.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Serve Robotics Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV)?
The market capitalisation of Serve Robotics Inc. is $282M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Serve Robotics Inc. is 28.4 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV)?
Earnings per share at Serve Robotics Inc. are $−2.61. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Serve Robotics Inc. is −70.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Serve Robotics Inc. is −233% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV)?
The operating margin of Serve Robotics Inc. is −2,158% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV)?
Revenue at Serve Robotics Inc. is growing +313% versus a year earlier (3y avg +191%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV) generate?
The free cash flow of Serve Robotics Inc. is −$118M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Serve Robotics Inc. (SERV) hold?
Serve Robotics Inc. holds more cash than debt, $101M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Thin data
Nov 8, 2026
