Saga Communications Inc (SGA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Saga Communications Inc $6.94, price $8.69, upside -20.1%, quality 41 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.40 – $20.05 · fair‑value band $5.95 – $7.93 · the $8.69 price screens above the $6.94 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Saga Communications, Inc., a media company, acquires, develops, and operates broadcast properties in the United States. It owns and operates FM and AM radio stations, as well as metro signals.
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Saga Communications, Inc., a media company, acquires, develops, and operates broadcast properties in the United States. It owns and operates FM and AM radio stations, as well as metro signals. The company's radio stations employ various programming formats, including classic hits, country, classic country, hot/soft/urban adult contemporary, oldies, classic rock, rock, and news/talk. In addition, it engages in broadcast advertising; digital advertising across multiple platforms, such as targeted display advertising, search engine management, search engine optimization, online promotions, advertising on its online news sites and websites and digital audio streams, mobile messaging, email marketing, and other e-commerce; and concerts, promotional events, tower rental, and other miscellaneous activities. Saga Communications, Inc. was incorporated in 1986 and is headquartered in Grosse Pointe Farms, Michigan.
Stock analysis
Saga Communications Inc (SGA) currently trades at $8.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.94, implying the stock looks roughly 25.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $15.95 per share, and 1 of the 12 models we run sit above the $8.69 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $6.73, and 11 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $5.95 (bear) to $7.93 (bull), the price of $8.69 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 41/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Saga Communications Inc reported revenue of $107M in FY2025 versus $108M in FY2021, a compound −0.3%/yr. Reported net income was −$7.9M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $53.5M · P/S ratio 0.51 · EPS (TTM) $−1.35 · Dividend yield 11.5% · Net margin −7.4% · Return on equity −5.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.3% · Operating margin −14.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 43% fair-value upside, at −20%, SGA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $5.95Fair Value $6.94Bull $7.93
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.28/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −2.1% a year
Revenue growth 33 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.8%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1.3% (2020) → −2.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.7% a year for the price.
Compare Saga Communications Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Broadcasting · 70 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score41 · Below median
Fair Value upside−20% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−8% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−14% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−6% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)11.5% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Broadcasting median · lower = cheaper
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Is Saga Communications Inc (SGA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.94 versus a price of $8.69, about −20% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SGA?
Our model-based fair value for Saga Communications Inc is $6.94 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $8.69.
What is the quality score of SGA?
Saga Communications Inc has a Quality Score of 41/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Saga Communications Inc (SGA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.94 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.95, optimistic scenario $7.93. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Saga Communications Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.94, about −20% upside versus a price of $8.69 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.95, optimistic scenario $7.93. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Saga Communications Inc (SGA)?
Saga Communications Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $106M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Saga Communications Inc pay a dividend?
Saga Communications Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 11.51% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Saga Communications Inc (SGA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Saga Communications Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +8.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.3 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SGA use?
Our models discount Saga Communications Inc at 12.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Saga Communications Inc that is +8.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Saga Communications Inc (SGA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Saga Communications Inc grew +2.3 % a year. The price currently implies +8.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Saga Communications Inc (SGA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Saga Communications Inc (+8.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Saga Communications Inc (SGA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.53 %: that much free cash flow Saga Communications Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Saga Communications Inc (SGA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Saga Communications Inc it is $6.94 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $8.69. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Saga Communications Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SGA trades above its calculated fair value: price $8.69, fair value $6.94, a gap of about −20% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SGA?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($8.69); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.94). For Saga Communications Inc the two are $1.75 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Saga Communications Inc worth?
The market values Saga Communications Inc at about $53.5M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $8.69; our models calculate a fair value of $6.94 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SGA?
Our models span a range for Saga Communications Inc: cautious scenario $5.95, base $6.94, optimistic $7.93 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $8.69). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of SGA?
The PEG ratio of Saga Communications Inc is 4.31 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Saga Communications Inc (SGA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Saga Communications Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −5.6%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 41/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SGA from its 52-week high?
Saga Communications Inc trades at $8.69, about 29% below its 52-week high of $12.20 and 3% above the low of $8.40 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.94 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Saga Communications Inc?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value Nexstar Media Group, SES S.A, MFE-Mediaforeurope N.V, Jiangsu Broadcasting Cable Information Network Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Saga Communications Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $8.69, calculated fair value $6.94 (−20%), Quality Score 41/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SGA calculated?
We run Saga Communications Inc through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.94, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Saga Communications Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Saga Communications Inc (SGA)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $8.69. Our model-based fair value is $6.94, about −20% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Saga Communications Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($7.93). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (41/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Where does the earnings growth of Saga Communications Inc (SGA) come from?
Earnings per share at Saga Communications Inc grew −10.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.8 %, EBIT margin −12.9 %, tax rate +2.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Saga Communications Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Saga Communications Inc (SGA)?
The market capitalisation of Saga Communications Inc is $53.5M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Saga Communications Inc (SGA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Saga Communications Inc is 0.51 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Saga Communications Inc (SGA)?
Earnings per share at Saga Communications Inc are $−1.35. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Saga Communications Inc (SGA)?
The dividend yield of Saga Communications Inc is 11.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Saga Communications Inc (SGA)?
The net margin of Saga Communications Inc is −7.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Saga Communications Inc (SGA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Saga Communications Inc is −5.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Saga Communications Inc (SGA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Saga Communications Inc is 3.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Saga Communications Inc (SGA)?
The operating margin of Saga Communications Inc is −14.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Saga Communications Inc (SGA)?
Revenue at Saga Communications Inc is growing −5.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −2.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Saga Communications Inc (SGA)?
Earnings per share at Saga Communications Inc are growing −56.1% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Saga Communications Inc (SGA) hold?
Saga Communications Inc holds more cash than debt, $17.5M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Sep 23, 2026