Sega Sammy Holdings Inc (SGAMY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Sega Sammy Holdings Inc stock $4.58, price $5.35, upside -14.4%, quality 62 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.40 – $5.79 · fair‑value band $3.06 – $5.52 · the $5.35 price screens above the $4.58 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 14, 2026.
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Sega Sammy Holdings Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the entertainment contents business in Japan, the United States, Europe, and internationally. It operates through Entertainment Contents Business, Pachislot and Pachinko Machines Business, and Gaming Business segments.
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The Entertainment Contents Business segment engages in the development and sale of consumer game software, such as Full Game and F2P, etc., as well as amusement machines; planning, production, and sale of animated films; and development, manufacture, and sale of toys.
Its Pachislot and Pachinko Machines Business segment is involved in the development, manufacture, sale of pachislot and pachinko machines.
The Gaming Business segment engages in the development, manufacture, and sale of gaming devices and casino machines; online gaming business; and development and operation of the Paradise City integrated resort. Sega Sammy Holdings Inc. was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in Shinagawa, Japan.
Stock analysis
Sega Sammy Holdings Inc (SGAMY) currently trades at $5.35, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $4.58, 14.4% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $6.33 per share, and 3 of the 16 models we run sit above the $5.35 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.8100, and 13 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $3.06 (bear) to $5.52 (bull), the price of $5.35 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR reported revenue of ¥517B in FY2026 versus ¥321B in FY2022, a compound +12.7%/yr. Reported net income was −¥6.1B in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap $4.3B Mid · EPS (TTM) $−0.0400 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 0.0% · Return on equity −0.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.2% · Operating margin 2.5% · Revenue (TTM) ¥502B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 25 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 60% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 50% fair-value upside, at −14%, SGAMY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$3.06Fair Value $4.58Bull$5.52
Price $5.35 · Upside -14.4%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.60/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+20.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.0% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
2.4% (2021) → 9.7% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+3.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.8% a year for the price and +1.3% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: Reliable cash flows from pachinko and pachislot machines form the main strength, while higher-risk global gaming bets and acquisitions have caused impairments and sustained net losses.
Main risk: Further impairments on global gaming acquisitions such as Rovio would hit profitability and returns already weakened by sustained net losses.
Sega Sammy pairs reliable cash flows from its pachinko and pachislot machines with higher-risk global gaming bets through core franchises and acquisitions such as Rovio. Impairments there contributed to a net loss in the fiscal year ended March 2026 despite sales growth, leading management to suspend large-scale M&A and focus on improving existing operations. Will sharper marketing and the upcoming game pipeline deliver enough growth to offset these pressures, or will the machine business remain the main source of stability?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Electronic Gaming & Multimedia · 135 stocks
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Is Sega Sammy Holdings Inc (SGAMY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $4.58 versus a price of $5.35, about −14% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SGAMY?
Our model-based fair value for Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR is $4.58 (as of Oct 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.35.
What is the quality score of SGAMY?
Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sega Sammy Holdings Inc (SGAMY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $4.58 (as of Oct 14, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $3.06, optimistic scenario $5.52. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $4.58, about −14% upside versus a price of $5.35 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $3.06, optimistic scenario $5.52. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sega Sammy Holdings Inc (SGAMY)?
Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥502B (latest available figure, as of Oct 14, 2026).
Does Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR pay a dividend?
Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR currently shows a dividend yield of 1.69% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 14, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sega Sammy Holdings Inc (SGAMY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR would have to grow free cash flow by +13.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.2 % per year. As of Oct 14, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SGAMY use?
Our models discount Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.02, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR that is +13.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sega Sammy Holdings Inc (SGAMY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR grew +13.2 % a year. The price currently implies +13.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sega Sammy Holdings Inc (SGAMY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +3.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR (+13.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sega Sammy Holdings Inc (SGAMY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.36 %: that much free cash flow Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sega Sammy Holdings Inc (SGAMY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR it is $4.58 per share (as of Oct 14, 2026), against a price of $5.35. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 14, 2026, SGAMY trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.35, fair value $4.58, a gap of about −14% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SGAMY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.35); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($4.58). For Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR the two are $0.7700 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR worth?
The market values Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR at about $4.3B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 14, 2026). Per share that is $5.35; our models calculate a fair value of $4.58 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SGAMY?
Our models span a range for Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR: cautious scenario $3.06, base $4.58, optimistic $5.52 per share (as of Oct 14, 2026, price $5.35). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of SGAMY?
The PEG ratio of Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR is 11.20 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 14, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sega Sammy Holdings Inc (SGAMY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR (as of Oct 14, 2026): return on equity −0.1%, debt of 0.38 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SGAMY from its 52-week high?
Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR trades at $5.35, at its 52-week high of $5.35 and 60% above the low of $3.34 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $4.58 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value NetEase, Inc, Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc, Roblox Corporation, Zhejiang Century Huatong Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 14, 2026: price $5.35, calculated fair value $4.58 (−14%), Quality Score 62/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SGAMY calculated?
We run Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $4.58, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sega Sammy Holdings Inc (SGAMY)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $5.35. Our model-based fair value is $4.58, about −14% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($3.06 to $5.52) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Sega Sammy Holdings Inc (SGAMY) come from?
Earnings per share at Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR grew +12.4 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.8 %, EBIT margin +7.4 %, tax rate +1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Sega Sammy Holdings Inc (SGAMY)?
The market capitalisation of Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR is $4.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Sega Sammy Holdings Inc (SGAMY)?
Earnings per share at Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR are $−0.0400. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sega Sammy Holdings Inc (SGAMY)?
The dividend yield of Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR is 1.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sega Sammy Holdings Inc (SGAMY)?
The net margin of Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR is 0.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sega Sammy Holdings Inc (SGAMY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR is −0.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sega Sammy Holdings Inc (SGAMY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR is 8.2% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sega Sammy Holdings Inc (SGAMY)?
The operating margin of Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR is 2.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sega Sammy Holdings Inc (SGAMY)?
Revenue at Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR is growing +17.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sega Sammy Holdings Inc (SGAMY)?
Earnings per share at Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR are growing +248% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Sega Sammy Holdings Inc (SGAMY) hold?
Sega Sammy Holdings Inc ADR holds more cash than debt, ¥6.5B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Oct 14, 2026