Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what Sampoerna Agro Tbk is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 1,174 IDR – 7,353 IDR · fair‑value band 4,372 IDR – 7,286 IDR · the 4,540 IDR price screens below the 5,829 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.
PT Prime Agri Resources Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, operates palm oil and rubber plantations, and palm oil mills in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Palm Products and Others segments. The company offers crude palm oil, palm kernel, and oil palm seeds, as well as non-palm products, such as rubber and sago starch.
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PT Prime Agri Resources Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, operates palm oil and rubber plantations, and palm oil mills in Indonesia and internationally. It operates through Palm Products and Others segments. The company offers crude palm oil, palm kernel, and oil palm seeds, as well as non-palm products, such as rubber and sago starch. It also engages in the utilization of forestry products; provision of management consultation service; production of germinated seeds; and wholesale trade activities. In addition, the company develops plasma plantations and manages cooperation with plasma farmers. Further, it produces and sells its oil palm seeds under the DxP Sriwijaya brand name. PT Prime Agri Resources Tbk was formerly known as PT Sampoerna Agro Tbk and changed its name to PT Prime Agri Resources Tbk in January 2026. PT Prime Agri Resources Tbk was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Palembang, Indonesia. As of November 19, 2025, PT Prime Agri Resources Tbk operates as a subsidiary of AGPA PTE. LTD.
Stock analysis
Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO) currently trades at 4,540 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 5,829 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 22.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 9,406 IDR per share, and 22 of the 26 models we run sit above the 4,540 IDR price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at 1,760 IDR, and 4 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 4,372 IDR (bear) to 7,286 IDR (bull), the price of 4,540 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Sampoerna Agro Tbk reported revenue of 6.4T IDR in FY2025 versus 5.2T IDR in FY2021, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was 505B IDR in FY2025, compounding −10.9%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 8.3T IDR (≈ $826M) · P/E ratio 29.7 · P/S ratio 2.32 · EPS (TTM) 152.99 IDR · Dividend yield 12.0% · Net margin 7.8% · Return on equity 4.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 42% below its 52-week high and 105% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at 28%, SGRO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 4,372 IDRFair Value 5,829 IDRBull 7,286 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (111.05 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.88/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+13.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.0%
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+15.9%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+3.9%
Dividend (yield on the price)12.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.4% vs 4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.11% → 27%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−6.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm Products · 290 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score76 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+17% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)5% · Above median
Return on assets4% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)11% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−23% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)12.0% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.49× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm Products median · lower = cheaper
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Is Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 5,829 IDR versus a price of 4,540 IDR, about +28% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SGRO?
Our model-based fair value for Sampoerna Agro Tbk is 5,829 IDR (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 4,540 IDR.
What is the quality score of SGRO?
Sampoerna Agro Tbk has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 5,829 IDR (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 4,372 IDR, optimistic scenario 7,286 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sampoerna Agro Tbk stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 5,829 IDR, about +28% upside versus a price of 4,540 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 4,372 IDR, optimistic scenario 7,286 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO)?
Sampoerna Agro Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 6.1T IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
Does Sampoerna Agro Tbk pay a dividend?
Sampoerna Agro Tbk currently shows a dividend yield of about 12.00% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 13, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sampoerna Agro Tbk would have to grow free cash flow by -6.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.0 % per year. As of Sep 13, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SGRO use?
Our models discount Sampoerna Agro Tbk at 13.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sampoerna Agro Tbk that is -6.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sampoerna Agro Tbk grew +13.0 % a year. The price currently implies -6.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sampoerna Agro Tbk (-6.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 17.31 %: that much free cash flow Sampoerna Agro Tbk produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sampoerna Agro Tbk it is 5,829 IDR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of 4,540 IDR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sampoerna Agro Tbk stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, SGRO trades below its calculated fair value: price 4,540 IDR, fair value 5,829 IDR, a gap of about +28% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SGRO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (4,540 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (5,829 IDR). For Sampoerna Agro Tbk the two are 1,289 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sampoerna Agro Tbk worth?
The market values Sampoerna Agro Tbk at about 8.3T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is 4,540 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 5,829 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SGRO?
Our models span a range for Sampoerna Agro Tbk: cautious scenario 4,372 IDR, base 5,829 IDR, optimistic 7,286 IDR per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price 4,540 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SGRO?
Sampoerna Agro Tbk trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 29.7 (as of Sep 13, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 5,829 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 1.2, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 6.0.
What is the PEG ratio of SGRO?
The PEG ratio of Sampoerna Agro Tbk is 1.62 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 13, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sampoerna Agro Tbk (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity 4.8%, debt of 0.49 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 76/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SGRO from its 52-week high?
Sampoerna Agro Tbk trades at 4,540 IDR, about 42% below its 52-week high of 7,850 IDR and 105% above the low of 2,220 IDR (as of Sep 13, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 5,829 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sampoerna Agro Tbk?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value Archer-Daniels-Midland Company, Muyuan Foods Group, Bunge Global SA, Tyson Foods, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sampoerna Agro Tbk stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price 4,540 IDR, calculated fair value 5,829 IDR (+28%), Quality Score 76/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SGRO calculated?
We run Sampoerna Agro Tbk through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 5,829 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 16.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Sampoerna Agro Tbk currently trades 28 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO)?
The closing price on Sep 18, 2026 was 4,540 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 5,829 IDR, about +28% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sampoerna Agro Tbk right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (76/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Where does the earnings growth of Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO) come from?
Earnings per share at Sampoerna Agro Tbk grew +6.3 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.9 %, EBIT margin +3.2 %, tax rate −4.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Sampoerna Agro Tbk
How large is the market capitalisation of Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO)?
The market capitalisation of Sampoerna Agro Tbk is 8.3T IDR (≈ $826M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sampoerna Agro Tbk is 2.32 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO)?
Earnings per share at Sampoerna Agro Tbk are 152.99 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 29.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO)?
The dividend yield of Sampoerna Agro Tbk is 12.0%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO)?
The net margin of Sampoerna Agro Tbk is 7.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sampoerna Agro Tbk is 4.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sampoerna Agro Tbk is 13.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO)?
The operating margin of Sampoerna Agro Tbk is 11.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO)?
Revenue at Sampoerna Agro Tbk is growing −23.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO)?
Earnings per share at Sampoerna Agro Tbk are growing −62.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sampoerna Agro Tbk (SGRO) carry?
The net debt of Sampoerna Agro Tbk is 97.1B IDR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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