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ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SHASF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Jun 17, 2026: fair value of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd $0.28, price $0.10, upside +180.0%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? Yes
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd
SHASF · USClearly undervaluedStrong Fair Value upside, but quality is only moderate.
✓Fair value $0.2800 · Strongly undervalued (+180.0%)
!Quality 59/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +22.7 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 28.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 73/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!The models disagree: range $0.1600 to $0.5000
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.0129 – $0.2100 · fair‑value band $0.1600 – $0.5000 · the $0.1000 price screens below the $0.2800 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in oil and gas exploration and production. It has working interest in the Atrush Block in the Kurdistan region of Iraq, as well as holds working interest in the Sarsang Block in the Kurdistan region of Iraq. The company was incorporated in 1991 and is headquartered in Hamilton, Bermuda.
Stock analysis
ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SHASF) currently trades at $0.1000, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.2800, implying the stock looks roughly 64.3% undervalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $0.3900 per share, and 18 of the 24 models we run sit above the $0.1000 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $0.0600, and 6 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.1600 (bear) to $0.5000 (bull), the price of $0.1000 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd reported revenue of $158M in FY2025 versus $102M in FY2021, a compound +11.4%/yr. Reported net income was $27.3M in FY2025, compounding +19.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $297M · P/E ratio 5.0 · P/S ratio 0.87 · EPS (TTM) $0.0200 · Net margin 17.3% · Return on equity 18.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 9.7% · Operating margin 53.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 100% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 180%, SHASF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.1600
Fair Value $0.2800
Bull $0.5000
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0151 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$0.2200
$0.3300
$0.6300
75
EPV
$0.0800
$0.0900
$0.1000
74
Growth DCF
$0.2100
$0.3500
$0.5800
74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$0.2200
$0.3300
$0.6300
75
Owner Earnings
$0.3200
$0.6700
$1.26
70
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.0900
$0.1400
$0.2400
68
5Y EBITDA Exit
$0.1600
$0.2800
$0.5100
70
5Y P/E Exit
$0.1200
$0.2600
$0.4300
66
10Y Revenue Exit
$0.1400
$0.2500
$0.2900
65
10Y EBITDA Exit
$0.1800
$0.3800
$0.6900
63
10Y P/E Exit
$0.1600
$0.3100
$0.5300
59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.0600
$0.4500
$0.6300
61
Lynch FV
$0.2300
$0.3300
$0.4300
59
PEG = 1.0
$0.2300
$0.3300
$0.4300
55
EPV
$0.0800
$0.0900
$0.1000
74
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$0.1000
$0.1300
$0.1700
63
P/S Multiple
$0.0500
$0.0700
$0.0800
58
P/B Multiple
$0.1200
$0.1600
$0.1900
55
EV/EBIT
$0.1000
$0.1400
$0.1800
66
EV/EBITDA
$0.1300
$0.1800
$0.2300
67
EV/Revenue
$0.0100
$0.0300
$0.0500
49
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.0400
$0.0600
$0.0900
53
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$0.2100
$0.3500
$0.5800
74
Rev-Margin DCF
$0.1000
$0.1600
$0.3000
67
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$0.0700
$0.0800
$0.0900
74
ROIC Compounder
$0.0800
$0.1000
$0.1200
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$0.2700
$0.3900
$0.5000
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
59/100
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21
Profitability
42
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
54
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
92
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
39
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
69
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
35
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
13
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
19
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
41
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+44.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−3.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+22.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 18 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+23.2%
’07
’08
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+7.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−216% → 31%
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+1.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −0.6% a year for the price.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 287 stocks
Beats the industry median on 11/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Energy sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Energy
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $127.06 | $91.42 | −28% |
| CNOOC Limited 0883 | HK$23.40 | HK$39.91 | +71% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $47.55 | $52.31 | +10% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $137.76 | $165.02 | +20% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $57.84 | $33.18 | −43% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $46.73 | $51.40 | +10% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $185.23 | $243.76 | +32% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$31.48 | A$23.87 | −24% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $50.09 | $55.10 | +10% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $336.46 | $317.06 | −6% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SHASF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.2800 versus the last price from Jun 17, 2026 of $0.1000, about +180% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SHASF?
Our model-based fair value for ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd is $0.2800 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. Last price (from Jun 17, 2026): $0.1000.
What is the quality score of SHASF?
ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SHASF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.2800 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.1600, optimistic scenario $0.5000. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.2800, about +180% upside versus the last price from Jun 17, 2026 of $0.1000 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.1600, optimistic scenario $0.5000. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SHASF)?
ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $157M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SHASF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +1.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 12.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +22.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SHASF use?
Our models discount ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd at 12.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.89, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd that is +1.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (12.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SHASF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd grew +22.7 % a year. The price currently implies +1.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SHASF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +8.9 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (+1.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SHASF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 13.92 %: that much free cash flow ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (12.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SHASF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd it is $0.2800 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.1000. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SHASF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.1000, fair value $0.2800, a gap of about +180% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SHASF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.1000); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.2800). For ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd the two are $0.1800 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd worth?
The market values ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd at about $297M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.1000; our models calculate a fair value of $0.2800 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SHASF?
Our models span a range for ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd: cautious scenario $0.1600, base $0.2800, optimistic $0.5000 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.1000). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SHASF?
ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.2800 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.2, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 3.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SHASF)?
Balance-sheet figures for ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 18.5%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SHASF from its 52-week high?
ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd trades at $0.1000, about 52% below its 52-week high of $0.2100 and 100% above the low of $0.0500 (as of Jun 17, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.2800 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.1000, calculated fair value $0.2800 (+180%), Quality Score 59/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SHASF calculated?
We run ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.2800, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd currently trades 64 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SHASF)?
The latest price we hold is from Jun 17, 2026 and stands at $0.1000. Our model-based fair value is $0.2800, about +180% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.1600). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The model range is unusually wide ($0.1600 to $0.5000). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid quality (59/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Key figures of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SHASF)?
The market capitalisation of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd is $297M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SHASF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd is 0.87 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SHASF)?
Earnings per share at ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd are $0.0200 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SHASF)?
The net margin of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd is 17.3% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SHASF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd is 18.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SHASF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd is 9.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SHASF)?
The operating margin of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd is 53.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SHASF)?
Revenue at ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd is growing +6.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg −3.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SHASF)?
Earnings per share at ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd are growing +279% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd (SHASF) carry?
The net debt of ShaMaran Petroleum Ltd is $104M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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