Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd (SHKLY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd $342, price $231, upside +48.1%, quality 57 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $11.10 – $324.52 · fair‑value band $239.35 – $444.50 · the $230.95 price screens below the $341.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
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Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the research, development, and manufacture of heavy-duty trucks (HDT), medium-heavy duty trucks, light-duty trucks (LDT), and related parts and components in Mainland China and internationally.
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Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the research, development, and manufacture of heavy-duty trucks (HDT), medium-heavy duty trucks, light-duty trucks (LDT), and related parts and components in Mainland China and internationally. It operates through three segments: Heavy Duty Trucks, Light Duty Trucks and Others, and Finance. The company offers HDTs under the SITRAK, HOWO, and Huanghe brands; specialty vehicles; medium-duty trucks, LDTs, buses, and other vehicles under the HOWO, Homan, and Wangpai brands; and auto-finance services to finance the end-users and the dealers. It also provides key assemblies, parts, and components, such as engines, cabins, axles, steel frames, and gearboxes. In addition, the company is involved in consultation and strategic planning in respect of the automobile market; research and development, manufacture, and sale of commercial vehicles; and truck refitting. It serves logistics, transportation, and infrastructure construction industries. The company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Jinan, China. Sinotruk (Hong Kong) Limited operates as a subsidiary of China National Heavy Duty Truck Group Company Limited.
Stock analysis
Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR (SHKLY) currently trades at $230.95, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $341.92, implying the stock looks roughly 32.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $468.16 per share, and 20 of the 26 models we run sit above the $230.95 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $81.54, and 6 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $239.35 (bear) to $444.50 (bull), the price of $230.95 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR reported revenue of 107B CNY in FY2025 versus 93.4B CNY in FY2021, a compound +3.4%/yr. Reported net income was 6.8B CNY in FY2025, compounding +12.1%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $16.1B · P/E ratio 15.0 · P/S ratio 0.96 · EPS (TTM) $15.35 · Dividend yield 5.6% · Net margin 6.4% · Return on equity 15.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 48%, SHKLY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $239.35Fair Value $341.92Bull $444.50
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($10.50 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+21.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +14.2% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+15.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)5.6%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.9.7% vs 32.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−8.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+9.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in CNY, China: IMF forecast 1.7% a year to 2030, 1.4% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −10.3% a year for the price and +7.9% for the forecasts.
Compare Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · 147 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score57 · Above median
Fair Value upside+57.5% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)15.0% · Above median
Return on assets3.5% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)6.4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)6.4% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth26.9% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)5.6% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.01× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SHKLY
Frequently asked questions
Is Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd (SHKLY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $341.92 versus a price of $230.95, about +48% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SHKLY?
Our model-based fair value for Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR is $341.92 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $230.95.
What is the quality score of SHKLY?
Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR has a Quality Score of 57/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd (SHKLY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $341.92 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario $239.35, optimistic scenario $444.50. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $341.92, about +48% upside versus a price of $230.95 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $239.35, optimistic scenario $444.50. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd (SHKLY)?
Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 110B CNY (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR pay a dividend?
Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR currently shows a dividend yield of about 5.64% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd (SHKLY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR would have to grow free cash flow by -8.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +1.7 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SHKLY use?
Our models discount Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.37, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR that is -8.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd (SHKLY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR grew +1.7 % a year. The price currently implies -8.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd (SHKLY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR (-8.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd (SHKLY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.73 %: that much free cash flow Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd (SHKLY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR it is $341.92 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $230.95. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, SHKLY trades below its calculated fair value: price $230.95, fair value $341.92, a gap of about +48% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SHKLY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($230.95); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($341.92). For Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR the two are $110.97 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR worth?
The market values Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR at about $16.1B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $230.95; our models calculate a fair value of $341.92 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SHKLY?
Our models span a range for Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR: cautious scenario $239.35, base $341.92, optimistic $444.50 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $230.95). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SHKLY?
Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 15.0 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $341.92 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.4, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 8.1.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd (SHKLY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 15.0%, debt of 0.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 57/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SHKLY from its 52-week high?
Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR trades at $230.95, about 29% below its 52-week high of $324.52 and 58% above the low of $146.57 (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $341.92 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Caterpillar Inc, Deere & Company, PACCAR Inc, Daimler Truck Holding, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $230.95, calculated fair value $341.92 (+48%), Quality Score 57/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SHKLY calculated?
We run Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $341.92, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR currently trades 32 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd (SHKLY)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was $230.95. Our model-based fair value is $341.92, about +48% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR right now?
The price is below even our cautious bear case ($239.35). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. Solid quality (57/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality. A fairly wide model range ($239.35 to $444.50) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd (SHKLY) come from?
Earnings per share at Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR grew +35.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +13.2 %, EBIT margin +11.1 %, tax rate +2.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +5.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR
How large is the market capitalisation of Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd (SHKLY)?
The market capitalisation of Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR is $16.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd (SHKLY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR is 0.96 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd (SHKLY)?
Earnings per share at Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR are $15.35 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 15.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd (SHKLY)?
The dividend yield of Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR is 5.6% (payout 84.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd (SHKLY)?
The net margin of Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR is 6.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd (SHKLY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR is 15.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd (SHKLY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR is 4.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd (SHKLY)?
The operating margin of Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR is 6.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd (SHKLY)?
Revenue at Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR is growing +26.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +21.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd (SHKLY)?
Earnings per share at Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR are growing +39.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd (SHKLY) carry?
The net debt of Sinotruk Hong Kong Ltd ADR is 3.5B CNY (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 0.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026