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Shoe Zone plc (SHOE) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · GB · Market cap 22.0M GBX

SZ Shoe Zone plc SHOE · LSE
Price£0.4750
Fair Value£0.9000
Upside+89.5%
Quality61/100
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Mixed Growth
Loss-making · -0.8% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (7/12)
Narrow moat 18/100
Evidence: High Range £0.6700 – £1.12 Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 28 days ago

Share price +28.4% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 89% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (£0.6700). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (61/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

£2.13 £0.3309 Fair Value £0.9000 May 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range £0.3309 – £2.13 · fair‑value band £0.6700 – £1.12 · the £0.4750 price screens below the £0.9000 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Shoe Zone plc (SHOE) currently trades at £0.4750, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £0.9000, implying the stock looks roughly 89.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, Shoe Zone plc generated revenue of £141M at a net margin of -0.8%. Revenue declined 12.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -3.8%. Net debt stands at £28.7M. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from £0.6700 (bear case) to £1.12 (bull case); at £0.4750, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -45% fair-value upside, at 89%, SHOE screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF £2.87 £3.52 £4.49 80
Residual Income £0.5500 £0.5500 £0.4800 76
Rev-Margin DCF £1.85 £2.34 £2.98 74
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF £2.80 £3.49 £4.61 38
Owner Earnings £2.81 £3.51 £4.63 31
5Y Revenue Exit £1.85 £2.26 £2.86 39
5Y EBITDA Exit £3.44 £5.02 £7.10 41
5Y P/E Exit £1.70 £2.01 £2.38 38
10Y Revenue Exit £2.27 £2.59 £2.89 36
10Y EBITDA Exit £3.12 £4.04 £5.02 37
10Y P/E Exit £2.21 £2.45 £2.65 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd £0.2800 £0.3400 £0.3800 54
EPV £0.6500 £0.7200 £0.7700 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM £1.21 £1.30 £1.42 70
DDM Multi-Stage £1.21 £1.40 £1.64 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple £0.6700 £0.9000 £1.12 63
P/S Multiple £0.5200 £0.6900 £0.8700 58
P/B Multiple £0.5200 £0.6900 £0.8700 55
EV/EBIT £1.52 £1.99 £2.45 53
EV/EBITDA £4.67 £6.19 £7.70 54
EV/Revenue £1.07 £1.47 £1.87 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) £0.3900 £0.5200 £0.7800 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF £2.87 £3.52 £4.49 80
Rev-Margin DCF £1.85 £2.34 £2.98 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income £0.5500 £0.5500 £0.4800 76
ROIC Compounder £0.6500 £0.7200 £0.7700 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E £0.4800 £0.6800 £0.8800 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (£2.59) versus Earnings-Based (£0.3400). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 141M GBX
Revenue growth (YoY) -12.0%
Net margin -0.8%
Return on equity -3.8%
Free cash flow 17.1M GBX FY2025
Operating margin -7.2%
More key figures
EPS (TTM) £-0.0300
EPS growth (YoY) -14.5%
Net debt 28.7M GBX FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 61/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 41

Profitability 46
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 22
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 72
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 57
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 45
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 51
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 20
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 94
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Shoe Zone plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a footwear retailer in the United Kingdom. The company offers boots, slippers, wellies, trainers, shoes, safety footwear, canvas, and sandals for men, women, boys, and girls. It also provides handbags, schoolbags, socks, shoe care products, and bracelets.

Full company description

Shoe Zone plc, together with its subsidiaries, operates as a footwear retailer in the United Kingdom. The company offers boots, slippers, wellies, trainers, shoes, safety footwear, canvas, and sandals for men, women, boys, and girls. It also provides handbags, schoolbags, socks, shoe care products, and bracelets. The company sells products through its stores and website, shoezone.com. Shoe Zone plc was incorporated in 2014 and is based in Leicester, the United Kingdom.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Shoe Zone plc reported revenue of £149M in FY2025 versus £119M in FY2021, a compound +5.8%/yr. Reported net income was £1.9M in FY2025, compounding −28.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 52/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
£149M
Latest YoY
−7.6%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−1.5%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.0%
Avg. growth/yr (15Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−3.1%
Revenue +5.8%/yr
FY21 £119M
FY22 £156M
FY23 £166M
FY24 £161M
FY25 £149M
Net income −28.0%/yr
FY21 £7.0M
FY22 £10.8M
FY23 £13.2M
FY24 £7.4M
FY25 £1.9M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −0.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share +0.3 pp

of which total revenue −0.5 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.8 pp

EBIT margin +0.9 pp
Tax rate −0.5 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.9 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shoe Zone plc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SHOE

Peer Group

Apparel Retail · 106 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 61 · Above median
Fair Value upside +90% · Top 25%
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) -1% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) -7% · Bottom 25%
Revenue growth -12% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.82× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.21× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 1.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 2.5× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 33
FUTURE 0 · sector 18
PAST 0 · sector 36
HEALTH 100 · sector 100
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 44

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Apparel Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A 1ITX €58.44 €23.29 -60%
The TJX Companies, Inc TJX $154.46 $84.95 -45%
Fast Retailing Co 6288 HK$40.00 HK$15.37 -62%
Ross Stores, Inc ROST $233.46 $118.41 -49%
Burlington Stores, Inc BURL $327.72 $147.08 -55%
Trent Limited TRENT ₹2,903 ₹709.49 -76%
lululemon athletica inc., LULU $116.33 $299.63 +158%
Aritzia Inc ATZ C$160.05 C$87.26 -45%
The Gap, Inc GAP $20.35 $37.12 +82%
Urban Outfitters, Inc URBN $72.95 $92.88 +27%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Shoe Zone plc (SHOE) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £0.9000 versus a price of £0.4750, about +89% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SHOE?
Our model-based fair value for Shoe Zone plc is £0.9000 (as of Jul 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is £0.4750.
What is the quality score of SHOE?
Shoe Zone plc has a Quality Score of 61/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Shoe Zone plc (SHOE)?
Shoe Zone plc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £141M (latest available figure, as of Jul 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of SHOE?
The net profit margin of Shoe Zone plc is about -0.8%, meaning it is currently running at a net loss. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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