Scandic Hotels Group (SHOT) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · SE · Market cap 17.4B SEK
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from kr 53.85 to kr 49.39 (−8.3%) since Jun 24, 2026. Share price −5.7% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 40% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (kr 47.94 to kr 107.68) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 26.43 – kr 96.61 · fair‑value band kr 47.94 – kr 107.68 · the kr 83.00 price screens above the kr 49.39 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Scandic Hotels Group (SHOT) currently trades at kr 83.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 49.39, implying the stock looks roughly 40.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Scandic Hotels Group generated revenue of 22.4B SEK at a net margin of 2.9%. Revenue grew 3.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 23.4%. Net debt stands at 43.7B SEK. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from kr 47.94 (bear case) to kr 107.68 (bull case); at kr 83.00, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 15% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -62% fair-value upside, at -40%, SHOT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (kr 281.63) versus Asset-Based (kr 9.02). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation and franchising of hotels in Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Poland. It operates hotels under the Scandic, Scandic Go, Signature Collection, Hilton, Holiday Inn, Maldron, Indigo, Clayton, and Crowne Plaza brand names.
Full company description
Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation and franchising of hotels in Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Poland. It operates hotels under the Scandic, Scandic Go, Signature Collection, Hilton, Holiday Inn, Maldron, Indigo, Clayton, and Crowne Plaza brand names. The company was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Scandic Hotels Group reported revenue of kr 22.3B in FY2025 versus kr 10.1B in FY2021, a compound +21.9%/yr. Reported net income was kr 625M in FY2025.
SHOT screens 40% overvalued. Compare with Marriott International, Inc →
Peer Group
Lodging · 170 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Lodging stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marriott International, Inc MAR | $369.05 | $135.64 | -63% |
| Hilton Worldwide Holdings HLT | $328.48 | $123.67 | -62% |
| InterContinental Hotels Group IHG | $159.87 | $85.18 | -47% |
| Hyatt Hotels Corporation H | $191.00 | $47.69 | -75% |
| H World Group HTHT | $42.67 | $47.55 | +11% |
| Accor SA AC | €47.25 | €39.26 | -17% |
| The Indian Hotels Company INDHOTEL | ₹743.20 | ₹260.68 | -65% |
| Wyndham Hotels & Resorts, Inc WH | $78.54 | $24.02 | -69% |
| Hanjin Kal, 180640 | 113,500 KRW | 36,890 KRW | -67% |
| Jabal Omar Development Company 4250 | 16.00 SAR | 11.64 SAR | -27% |
Compare Scandic Hotels Group with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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