Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) stock SEK 115, price SEK 104, upside +10.0%, quality 58 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 23 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range kr 26.43 – kr 105.80 · fair‑value band kr 85.97 – kr 143.26 · the kr 104.20 price screens below the kr 114.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation and franchising of hotels in Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Poland.
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It operates hotels under the Scandic, Scandic Go, Signature Collection, Hilton, Holiday Inn, Maldron, Indigo, Clayton, and Crowne Plaza brand names. The company was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT) currently trades at kr 104.20, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 114.62, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 9.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of kr 448.74 per share, and 13 of the 23 models we run sit above the kr 104.20 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at kr 45.82, and 10 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 85.97 (bear) to kr 143.26 (bull), the price of kr 104.20 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) reported revenue of 22.3B SEK in FY2025 versus 10.1B SEK in FY2021, a compound +21.9%/yr. Reported net income was 625M SEK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 22.4B SEK (≈ $2.3B) Mid · P/E ratio 30.8 · P/S ratio 0.99 · EPS (TTM) kr 3.38 · Dividend yield 2.5% · Net margin 3.2% · Return on equity 26.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 54 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −27% fair-value upside, at 10%, SHOT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bearkr 85.97Fair Value kr 114.62Bullkr 143.26
Price kr 104.20 · Upside +10.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 0.6689 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−1.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−3.8%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.5%
Per share before 2020divided by the spin-off factor 1.4096
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−3.8% vs 1.4%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−60% → 13%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−19.2%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+22.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −20.8% a year for the price and +20.5% for the forecasts.
Compare Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lodging · 157 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside+10.0% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)26.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets1.2% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)3.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)15.1% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)3.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.5% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.34× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)30.8× · Pricier than median
P/B7.74× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SHOT
Frequently asked questions
Is Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 114.62 versus a price of kr 104.20, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of SHOT?
Our model-based fair value for Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) is kr 114.62 (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 104.20.
What is the quality score of SHOT?
Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 114.62 (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 85.97, optimistic scenario kr 143.26. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 114.62, about +10% upside versus a price of kr 104.20 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario kr 85.97, optimistic scenario kr 143.26. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 22.6B SEK (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) pay a dividend?
Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) currently shows a dividend yield of 2.50% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) pays a dividend of kr 2.60 per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.5%. The last ex-dividend date was Nov 6, 2026. The payout ratio is 76.9% of earnings. Free cash flow covers the dividend 9.43 times. Our assessment: Sustainable. Payout and cash coverage both look sustainable.
What growth is priced into Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by -19.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.3 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +24.4 % per year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SHOT use?
Our models discount Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) at 9.3 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.91, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) that is -19.2 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (9.3 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) grew +24.4 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -19.2 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (-19.2 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 23.52 %: that much free cash flow Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.3 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) it is kr 114.62 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of kr 104.20. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models in 7 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, SHOT trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 104.20, fair value kr 114.62, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SHOT?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 104.20); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 114.62). For Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) the two are kr 10.42 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) worth?
The market values Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) at about 22.4B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is kr 104.20; our models calculate a fair value of kr 114.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SHOT?
Our models span a range for Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 85.97, base kr 114.62, optimistic kr 143.26 per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price kr 104.20). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SHOT?
Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.8 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 114.62 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 7.7, P/S 1.0, EV/EBITDA 6.0.
What is the PEG ratio of SHOT?
The PEG ratio of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) is 0.89 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 7, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 26.2%, debt of 0.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SHOT from its 52-week high?
Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) trades at kr 104.20, about 2% below its 52-week high of kr 105.80 and 31% above the low of kr 79.25 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 114.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ)?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Marriott International, Inc, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, H World Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price kr 104.20, calculated fair value kr 114.62 (+10%), Quality Score 58/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SHOT calculated?
We run Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) through 23 models from 7 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of kr 114.62 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) currently trades 9% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was kr 104.20. Our model-based fair value is kr 114.62, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT) come from?
Earnings per share at Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) grew −4.0 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.3 %, EBIT margin +9.0 %, tax rate −1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −11.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
The market capitalisation of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) is 22.4B SEK (≈ $2.3B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) is 0.99 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
Earnings per share at Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) are kr 3.38 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
The dividend yield of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) is 2.5% (payout 76.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
The net margin of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) is 3.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) is 26.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
The operating margin of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) is 15.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
Revenue at Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) is growing +3.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
Earnings per share at Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) are growing +30.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT) carry?
The net debt of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) is 43.7B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Nov 7, 2026