Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) SEK 98.23, price SEK 89.30, upside +10.0%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation and franchising of hotels in Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Poland. It operates hotels under the Scandic, Scandic Go, Signature Collection, Hilton, Holiday Inn, Maldron, Indigo, Clayton, and Crowne Plaza brand names.
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Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ), together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation and franchising of hotels in Sweden, Norway, Finland, Denmark, Ireland, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Poland. It operates hotels under the Scandic, Scandic Go, Signature Collection, Hilton, Holiday Inn, Maldron, Indigo, Clayton, and Crowne Plaza brand names. The company was founded in 1963 and is headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden.
Stock analysis
Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT) currently trades at kr 89.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is kr 98.23, implying the stock looks roughly 9.1% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of kr 309.43 per share, and 15 of the 24 models we run sit above the kr 89.30 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at kr 21.89, and 9 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: kr 73.67 (bear) to kr 124.99 (bull), the price of kr 89.30 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) reported revenue of 22.3B SEK in FY2025 versus 10.1B SEK in FY2021, a compound +21.9%/yr. Reported net income was 625M SEK in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 19.3B SEK (≈ $1.9B) · P/E ratio 30.0 · P/S ratio 0.84 · EPS (TTM) kr 2.98 · Dividend yield 2.9% · Net margin 2.8% · Return on equity 23.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −32% fair-value upside, at 10%, SHOT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear kr 73.67Fair Value kr 98.23Bull kr 124.99
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (kr 0.2780 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.95/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.2% a year
Revenue growth 13 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−7.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.9%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−10% vs −2%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−60% → 13%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−19.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+17.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (Sweden: IMF forecast 2.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −21.3% a year for the price and +14.9% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (15 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
Compare Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Lodging · 167 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score59 · Above median
Fair Value upside+10% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)23% · Top 25%
Return on assets3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM)3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth3% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.9% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.34× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Lodging median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)30.0× · Pricier than median
P/B6.65× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SHOT
Frequently asked questions
Is Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of kr 98.23 versus a price of kr 89.30, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SHOT?
Our model-based fair value for Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) is kr 98.23 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: kr 89.30.
What is the quality score of SHOT?
Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of kr 98.23 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario kr 73.67, optimistic scenario kr 124.99. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at kr 98.23, about +10% upside versus a price of kr 89.30 (undervalued). Cautious scenario kr 73.67, optimistic scenario kr 124.99. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 22.4B SEK (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) pay a dividend?
Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.91% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) would have to grow free cash flow by -19.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +24.4 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SHOT use?
Our models discount Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) at 10.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.89, country premium for Sweden. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) that is -19.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) grew +24.4 % a year. The price currently implies -19.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (-19.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 27.38 %: that much free cash flow Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) it is kr 98.23 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of kr 89.30. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SHOT trades below its calculated fair value: price kr 89.30, fair value kr 98.23, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SHOT?
No. The price is what the market pays today (kr 89.30); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (kr 98.23). For Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) the two are kr 8.93 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) worth?
The market values Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) at about 19.3B SEK (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is kr 89.30; our models calculate a fair value of kr 98.23 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SHOT?
Our models span a range for Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ): cautious scenario kr 73.67, base kr 98.23, optimistic kr 124.99 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price kr 89.30). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SHOT?
Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 30.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of kr 98.23 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.9, P/B 6.7, P/S 0.9, EV/EBITDA 5.3.
What is the PEG ratio of SHOT?
The PEG ratio of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) is 0.89 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 23.4%, debt of 0.34 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SHOT from its 52-week high?
Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) trades at kr 89.30, about 8% below its 52-week high of kr 96.61 and 13% above the low of kr 79.25 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of kr 98.23 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ)?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Marriott International, Inc, Hilton Worldwide Holdings, InterContinental Hotels Group, Hyatt Hotels Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price kr 89.30, calculated fair value kr 98.23 (+10%), Quality Score 59/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SHOT calculated?
We run Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of kr 98.23, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) currently trades 10 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was kr 89.30. Our model-based fair value is kr 98.23, about +10% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) right now?
The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT) come from?
Earnings per share at Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) grew −4.0 % a year from 2015 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +0.3 %, EBIT margin +9.0 %, tax rate −1.3 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −11.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ)
How large is the market capitalisation of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
The market capitalisation of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) is 19.3B SEK (≈ $1.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) is 0.84 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
Earnings per share at Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) are kr 2.98 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 30.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
The dividend yield of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) is 2.9% (payout 87.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
The net margin of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) is 2.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) is 23.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) is 3.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
The operating margin of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) is 4.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
Revenue at Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) is growing +3.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +5.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT)?
Earnings per share at Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) are growing −88.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) (SHOT) carry?
The net debt of Scandic Hotels Group AB (publ) is 43.7B SEK (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.3 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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