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Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SIDN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 30, 2026: fair value of Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional MXN 90.45, price MXN 18.34, upside +393.2%, quality 33 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
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Basic Materials · MX · ISIN US20440W1053

CS Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional

SIDN · MX

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value 90.45 MXN · Strongly undervalued (+393.2%)
!Quality 33/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +8.3 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -4.5% net margin (TTM)
!High debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 19/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

137.09 MXN 15.26 MXN Fair Value 90.45 MXN May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 15.26 MXN – 137.09 MXN · fair‑value band 43.61 MXN – 90.45 MXN · the 18.34 MXN price screens below the 90.45 MXN fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated steel producer in Brazil and internationally. It operates through five segments: Steel Industry, Mining, Logistics, Energy, and Cement. The Steel Segment offers produce and sells of flat and long steel.

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Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated steel producer in Brazil and internationally. It operates through five segments: Steel Industry, Mining, Logistics, Energy, and Cement. The Steel Segment offers produce and sells of flat and long steel. The Mining Segment engages in extraction, processing and marketing of iron ore, tin, limestone, and dolomite. The Logistics Segment supplies railways, port concessions, and road fleet. The Cement Segment produces and sells bagged and bulk cement, as well as aggregates, concrete, and other products. The Energy segment is involved in generation and commercialization of energy originating from renewables. It offers flat steel products, such as hot and cold rolled, galvanized, galvalume, pre-painted, and metal sheets products; coil, sheets, and derivatives; tiles and derivatives, pipes, and profiles; long steel products including, reinforcing bars, iron rods, and laminated profiles; food and chemical packaging solutions; and carbochemical products. It also provides steel cutting services; produces and sells cement; operates railways; and generates electric power from its hydroelectric power plants. In addition, the company offers steel solutions and distributions; packaging; logistics services; and certifications. Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional was founded in 1941 and is headquartered in São Paulo, Brazil.

Stock analysis

Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, (SIDN) currently trades at 18.34 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 90.45 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 79.7% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 118.37 MXN per share, and 6 of the 8 models we run sit above the 18.34 MXN price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 22.48 MXN, and 2 of the 8 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 43.61 MXN (bear) to 90.45 MXN (bull), the price of 18.34 MXN sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, reported revenue of R$44.8B in FY2025 versus R$47.9B in FY2021, a compound −1.7%/yr. Reported net income was −R$2.0B in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 28.5B MXN (≈ $1.6B) · P/S ratio 0.64 · EPS (TTM) −5.10 MXN · Net margin −4.5% · Return on equity −8.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.4% · Operating margin 2.9% · Revenue (TTM) R$44.5B.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 50% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at 393%, SIDN screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 43.61 MXN Fair Value 90.45 MXN Bull 90.45 MXN
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
EPV n/a 4.35 MXN 12.14 MXN 68
Gordon GGM 14.17 MXN 25.53 MXN 35.14 MXN 68
ROIC Compounder n/a 4.35 MXN 12.14 MXN 68
All 8 models by family
Earnings-Based
EPV n/a 4.35 MXN 12.14 MXN 68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 14.17 MXN 25.53 MXN 35.14 MXN 68
DDM Multi-Stage 14.17 MXN 22.48 MXN 27.27 MXN 67
Multiples
EV/EBIT 70.37 MXN 118.37 MXN 166.37 MXN 64
EV/EBITDA 85.53 MXN 138.58 MXN 191.64 MXN 66
EV/Revenue 49.73 MXN 102.60 MXN 155.47 MXN 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 16.88 MXN 22.63 MXN 33.77 MXN 54
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder n/a 4.35 MXN 12.14 MXN 68

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 33/100

Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 13

Profitability 12
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 40
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 3
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 12
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 70
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 18
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 12
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 7
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 31/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +11.4% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+8.2%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
25.4% (2020) → 11.7% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Steel stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Nucor Corporation NUE $236.24 $116.49 −51%
ArcelorMittal S.A MT €59.82 €35.15 −41%
Steel Dynamics, Inc STLD $230.39 $127.93 −44%
JSW Steel Limited JSWSTEEL ₹1,233 ₹1,095 −11%
Tata Steel Limited TATASTEEL ₹178.00 ₹147.10 −17%
Reliance, Inc RS $393.04 $211.55 −46%
Baoshan Iron & Steel Co 600019 ¥5.84 ¥8.07 +38%
POSCO Holdings 005490 311,000 KRW 155,270 KRW −50%
Inner Mongolia Baotou Steel Union Co 600010 ¥2.09 ¥0.5300 −75%
Jindal Steel Limited JINDALSTEL ₹1,165 ₹516.27 −56%

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Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, · Fair Value
90.45 MXN +80%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SIDN

Frequently asked questions

Is Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SIDN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 90.45 MXN versus a price of 18.34 MXN, about +393% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SIDN?
Our model-based fair value for Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, is 90.45 MXN (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 18.34 MXN.
What is the quality score of SIDN?
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SIDN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 90.45 MXN (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 8 valuation models. Cautious scenario 43.61 MXN, optimistic scenario 90.45 MXN. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 90.45 MXN, about +393% upside versus a price of 18.34 MXN (undervalued). Cautious scenario 43.61 MXN, optimistic scenario 90.45 MXN. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SIDN)?
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about R$44.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SIDN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, it is 90.45 MXN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 18.34 MXN. It is the blended result of 8 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SIDN trades below its calculated fair value: price 18.34 MXN, fair value 90.45 MXN, a gap of about +393% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SIDN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (18.34 MXN); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (90.45 MXN). For Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, the two are 72.11 MXN per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, worth?
The market values Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, at about 28.5B MXN (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 18.34 MXN; our models calculate a fair value of 90.45 MXN per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SIDN?
Our models span a range for Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional,: cautious scenario 43.61 MXN, base 90.45 MXN, optimistic 90.45 MXN per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 18.34 MXN). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How far is SIDN from its 52-week high?
Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, trades at 18.34 MXN, about 50% below its 52-week high of 36.68 MXN and 20% above the low of 15.26 MXN (as of Sep 30, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 90.45 MXN is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional,?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Nucor Corporation, ArcelorMittal S.A, Steel Dynamics, Inc, JSW Steel Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 18.34 MXN, calculated fair value 90.45 MXN (+393%), Quality Score 33/100, from 8 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SIDN calculated?
We run Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, through 8 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 90.45 MXN, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, currently trades 80 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SIDN)?
The closing price on Sep 30, 2026 was 18.34 MXN. Our model-based fair value is 90.45 MXN, about +393% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (33/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (43.61 MXN). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (43.61 MXN to 90.45 MXN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Key figures of Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional,

How large is the market capitalisation of Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SIDN)?
The market capitalisation of Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, is 28.5B MXN (≈ $1.6B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SIDN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, is 0.64 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SIDN)?
Earnings per share at Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, are −5.10 MXN. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SIDN)?
The net margin of Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, is −4.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SIDN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, is −8.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SIDN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, is 10.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SIDN)?
The operating margin of Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, is 2.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SIDN)?
Revenue at Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, is growing −2.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SIDN)?
Earnings per share at Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, are growing +33.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SIDN) generate?
The free cash flow of Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, is −R$6.9B (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional (SIDN) carry?
The net debt of Companhia Siderúrgica Nacional, is R$37.9B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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