Shelly Group SE (SLYG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Shelly Group SE €12.19, price €64.40, upside -81.1%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value €12.19 · Strongly overvalued (−81%)
!Quality 54/100
!Expensive Growth(revenue 3y +17.0 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 17.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·0.20% dividend yield
!Mixed vs. peers(7/14)
✓Wide moat83/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
58‑month range €7.93 – €70.84 · fair‑value band €10.38 – €22.37 · the €64.40 price screens above the €12.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Shelly Group SE, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, management, evaluation, and sale of interests in Bulgaria and internationally. It is also involved in the acquisition, management, and sale of bonds; acquisition, evaluation and sale of patents; assignment of licenses for the use of patents; financing of companies.
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Shelly Group SE, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, management, evaluation, and sale of interests in Bulgaria and internationally. It is also involved in the acquisition, management, and sale of bonds; acquisition, evaluation and sale of patents; assignment of licenses for the use of patents; financing of companies. The company was founded in 2010 and is headquartered in Sofia, Bulgaria.
Stock analysis
Shelly Group SE (SLYG) currently trades at €64.40, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €12.19, implying the stock looks roughly 428.3% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Earnings-Based group reads highest at a median of €33.10 per share, and 1 of the 12 models we run sit above the €64.40 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €1.65, and 11 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: €10.38 (bear) to €22.37 (bull), the price of €64.40 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Shelly Group SE reported revenue of €149M in FY2025 versus €59.5M in FY2021, a compound +25.8%/yr. Reported net income was €25.0M in FY2025, compounding +12.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €1.2B · P/E ratio 43.5 · P/S ratio 7.29 · EPS (TTM) €1.48 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 16.8% · Return on equity 28.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 23.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 50 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 41% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 38% fair-value upside, at −81%, SLYG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (€1.65 to €65.27). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear €10.38Fair Value €12.19Bull €22.37
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.9861 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−28.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.0%
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+9.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+9.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Profit margin 2021 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.31% → 23%
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
more than +80 %
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 378 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Above median
Fair Value upside−81% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)28% · Top 25%
Return on assets18% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)17% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)26% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth26% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)43.5× · Priciest 25%
P/B6.39× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)8.35× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF1,095.1× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA37.6× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 16
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 19
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 89
DIVIDEND (yield)4· sector 40
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shelly Group SE Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SLYG
Frequently asked questions
Is Shelly Group SE (SLYG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €12.19 versus a price of €64.40, about −81% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SLYG?
Our model-based fair value for Shelly Group SE is €12.19 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €64.40.
What is the quality score of SLYG?
Shelly Group SE has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shelly Group SE (SLYG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €12.19 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario €10.38, optimistic scenario €22.37. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shelly Group SE stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €12.19, about −81% upside versus a price of €64.40 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €10.38, optimistic scenario €22.37. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shelly Group SE (SLYG)?
Shelly Group SE reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €159M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Shelly Group SE pay a dividend?
Shelly Group SE currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.20% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shelly Group SE (SLYG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shelly Group SE would have to grow free cash flow by more than 80 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 4 years revenue grew +25.8 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SLYG use?
Our models discount Shelly Group SE at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.09, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shelly Group SE that is more than 80 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shelly Group SE (SLYG) delivered so far?
Over the past 4 years revenue at Shelly Group SE grew +25.8 % a year. The price currently implies more than 80 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shelly Group SE (SLYG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shelly Group SE (more than 80 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shelly Group SE (SLYG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.10 %: that much free cash flow Shelly Group SE produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shelly Group SE (SLYG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shelly Group SE it is €12.19 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of €64.40. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shelly Group SE stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SLYG trades above its calculated fair value: price €64.40, fair value €12.19, a gap of about −81% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SLYG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€64.40); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€12.19). For Shelly Group SE the two are €52.21 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shelly Group SE worth?
The market values Shelly Group SE at about €1.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is €64.40; our models calculate a fair value of €12.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SLYG?
Our models span a range for Shelly Group SE: cautious scenario €10.38, base €12.19, optimistic €22.37 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price €64.40). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SLYG?
Shelly Group SE trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 43.5 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €12.19 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 6.4, P/S 8.3, EV/EBITDA 37.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shelly Group SE (SLYG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shelly Group SE (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 28.2%. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SLYG from its 52-week high?
Shelly Group SE trades at €64.40, about 9% below its 52-week high of €70.84 and 41% above the low of €45.60 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €12.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shelly Group SE?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, Poste Italiane S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shelly Group SE stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price €64.40, calculated fair value €12.19 (−81%), Quality Score 54/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SLYG calculated?
We run Shelly Group SE through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €12.19, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Shelly Group SE itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shelly Group SE (SLYG)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was €64.40. Our model-based fair value is €12.19, about −81% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shelly Group SE right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€22.37). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range (€10.38 to €22.37) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Shelly Group SE
How large is the market capitalisation of Shelly Group SE (SLYG)?
The market capitalisation of Shelly Group SE is €1.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Shelly Group SE (SLYG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Shelly Group SE is 7.29 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Shelly Group SE (SLYG)?
Earnings per share at Shelly Group SE are €1.48 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 43.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shelly Group SE (SLYG)?
The dividend yield of Shelly Group SE is 0.2% (payout 8.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shelly Group SE (SLYG)?
The net margin of Shelly Group SE is 16.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shelly Group SE (SLYG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shelly Group SE is 28.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shelly Group SE (SLYG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shelly Group SE is 23.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shelly Group SE (SLYG)?
The operating margin of Shelly Group SE is 25.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shelly Group SE (SLYG)?
Revenue at Shelly Group SE is growing +25.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shelly Group SE (SLYG)?
Earnings per share at Shelly Group SE are growing +31.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Shelly Group SE (SLYG) hold?
Shelly Group SE holds more cash than debt, €9.3M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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