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PT Semen Baturaja (Persero) Tbk (SMBR) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · ID · Market cap 1.6T IDR

PS PT Semen Baturaja (Persero) Tbk SMBR · JK
Price168.00 IDR
Fair Value243.52 IDR
Upside+45.0%
Quality65/100
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Mixed Growth
Thin margins · 6.2% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (11/14)
Narrow moat 37/100
Evidence: High Range 182.64 IDR – 304.39 IDR Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 21 days ago

Fair value updated Jul 19, 2026, revised from 294.26 IDR to 243.52 IDR (−17.2%) since Jun 25, 2026. Share price +12.0% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 45% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (182.64 IDR). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (65/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

991.23 IDR 132.00 IDR Fair Value 243.52 IDR Feb 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 132.00 IDR – 991.23 IDR · fair‑value band 182.64 IDR – 304.39 IDR · the 168.00 IDR price screens below the 243.52 IDR fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.

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Analysis

PT Semen Baturaja (Persero) Tbk (SMBR) currently trades at 168.00 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 243.52 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 45.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, PT Semen Baturaja (Persero) Tbk generated revenue of 2.3T IDR at a net margin of 6.2%. Revenue declined 16.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.2%. Net debt stands at 461B IDR. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 182.64 IDR (bear case) to 304.39 IDR (bull case); at 168.00 IDR, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 52% below its 52-week high and 30% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -59% fair-value upside, at 45%, SMBR screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 336.23 IDR 529.81 IDR 826.83 IDR 80
Residual Income 267.05 IDR 270.86 IDR 263.99 IDR 76
Rev-Margin DCF 260.82 IDR 422.04 IDR 612.48 IDR 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 330.65 IDR 551.43 IDR 914.21 IDR 38
Owner Earnings 387.00 IDR 644.03 IDR 1,066 IDR 31
5Y Revenue Exit 260.82 IDR 421.45 IDR 627.12 IDR 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 314.34 IDR 523.54 IDR 769.95 IDR 41
5Y P/E Exit 233.31 IDR 368.96 IDR 511.90 IDR 38
10Y Revenue Exit 273.74 IDR 430.07 IDR 642.83 IDR 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 317.02 IDR 503.37 IDR 756.44 IDR 37
10Y P/E Exit 263.77 IDR 392.39 IDR 551.19 IDR 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 117.70 IDR 401.11 IDR 538.08 IDR 54
Lynch FV 92.09 IDR 131.55 IDR 171.02 IDR 50
PEG = 1.0 92.09 IDR 131.55 IDR 171.02 IDR 46
EPV 197.69 IDR 234.79 IDR 267.78 IDR 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 25.03 IDR 54.66 IDR 91.96 IDR 70
DDM Multi-Stage 25.03 IDR 44.04 IDR 56.96 IDR 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 220.69 IDR 294.26 IDR 367.82 IDR 63
P/S Multiple 220.69 IDR 294.26 IDR 367.82 IDR 58
P/B Multiple 220.69 IDR 294.26 IDR 367.82 IDR 55
EV/EBIT 274.28 IDR 369.90 IDR 465.52 IDR 53
EV/EBITDA 342.64 IDR 461.04 IDR 579.45 IDR 54
EV/Revenue 236.03 IDR 342.58 IDR 449.13 IDR 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 171.79 IDR 230.20 IDR 343.59 IDR 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 336.23 IDR 529.81 IDR 826.83 IDR 80
Rev-Margin DCF 260.82 IDR 422.04 IDR 612.48 IDR 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 267.05 IDR 270.86 IDR 263.99 IDR 76
ROIC Compounder 197.69 IDR 234.79 IDR 267.78 IDR 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 193.73 IDR 276.75 IDR 359.78 IDR 68

Widest divergence: DCF Models (430.07 IDR) versus Dividend Discount (44.04 IDR). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 2.3T IDR
Revenue growth (YoY) -16.8%
Net margin 6.2%
Return on equity 4.2%
Free cash flow 278B IDR FY2025
P/E ratio 9.7
More key figures
Operating margin 5.6%
EPS (TTM) 14.01 IDR
EPS growth (YoY) -64.6%
Net debt 461B IDR FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 65/100

Of which business quality 63 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 28

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 72
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 72
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 94
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 68
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 11
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 10
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

PT Semen Baturaja (Persero) Tbk produces and distributes cement in Indonesia. The company provides ordinary Portland cement and Portland composite cement; Baturaja mortar cement; and white clay products. PT Semen Baturaja (Persero) Tbk was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Palembang, Indonesia.

Full company description

PT Semen Baturaja (Persero) Tbk produces and distributes cement in Indonesia. The company provides ordinary Portland cement and Portland composite cement; Baturaja mortar cement; and white clay products. PT Semen Baturaja (Persero) Tbk was founded in 1974 and is headquartered in Palembang, Indonesia. PT Semen Baturaja (Persero) Tbk operates as a subsidiary of PT Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

PT Semen Baturaja (Persero) Tbk reported revenue of 2.4T IDR in FY2025 versus 1.8T IDR in FY2021, a compound +7.8%/yr. Reported net income was 172B IDR in FY2025, compounding +38.5%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 64/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
2.4T IDR
Latest YoY
+12.9%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+7.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.5%
Avg. growth/yr (23Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+9.6%
Revenue +7.8%/yr
FY21 1.8T IDR
FY22 1.9T IDR
FY23 2.0T IDR
FY24 2.1T IDR
FY25 2.4T IDR
Net income +38.5%/yr
FY21 46.7B IDR
FY22 77.3B IDR
FY23 122B IDR
FY24 129B IDR
FY25 172B IDR
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) −8.6 % p.a.
Revenue per share +4.9 pp

of which total revenue +5.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.1 pp

EBIT margin −7.0 pp
Tax rate −0.7 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −5.7 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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PT Semen Baturaja (Persero) Tbk · Fair Value
243.52 IDR +45%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "PT Semen Baturaja (Persero) Tbk Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SMBR

Peer Group

Building Materials · 253 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 65 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +45% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Above median
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 6% · Below median
Revenue growth -17% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.05× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Building Materials median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 11.2× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.46× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.69× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 4.2× · Cheaper than median

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 93 · sector 27
FUTURE 0 · sector 2
PAST 17 · sector 15
HEALTH 97 · sector 92
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 42

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Building Materials stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
CRH plc CRH $102.92 $70.57 -31%
UltraTech Cement Limited ULTRACEMCO ₹11,711 ₹4,719 -60%
China Jushi Co 600176 ¥54.52 ¥13.95 -74%
Grasim Industries Limited GRASIM ₹3,073 ₹1,245 -59%
CEMEX, S.A. CEMEXCPO 21.71 MXN 15.42 MXN -29%
Anhui Conch Cement Company 600585 ¥16.99 ¥26.14 +54%
Ambuja Cements Limited AMBUJACEM ₹435.25 ₹227.96 -48%
Shree Cement Limited SHREECEM ₹26,930 ₹8,215 -69%
TCC Group 1101B 43.70 TWD 10.48 TWD -76%
Taiwan Glass Ind. Corp 1802 53.30 TWD 13.98 TWD -74%

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Frequently asked questions

Is PT Semen Baturaja (Persero) Tbk (SMBR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 19, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 243.52 IDR versus a price of 168.00 IDR, about +45% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SMBR?
Our model-based fair value for PT Semen Baturaja (Persero) Tbk is 243.52 IDR (as of Jul 19, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 168.00 IDR.
What is the quality score of SMBR?
PT Semen Baturaja (Persero) Tbk has a Quality Score of 65/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of PT Semen Baturaja (Persero) Tbk (SMBR)?
PT Semen Baturaja (Persero) Tbk reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.3T IDR (latest available figure, as of Jul 19, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of SMBR?
The net profit margin of PT Semen Baturaja (Persero) Tbk is about 6.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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