SMC Corporation (SMCAY) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $29.1B
SMC Corporation
SMCAY · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +10.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 51% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($17.48). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($7.70 to $17.48) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $12.10 – $27.71 · fair‑value band $7.70 – $17.48 · the $24.18 price screens above the $11.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
SMC Corporation (SMCAY) currently trades at $24.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $11.84, implying the stock looks roughly 51.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, SMC Corporation generated revenue of $843B at a net margin of 19.9%. Revenue grew 15.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $662B. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $7.70 (bear case) to $17.48 (bull case); at $24.18, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 100% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -48% fair-value upside, at -51%, SMCAY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($16.46) versus Earnings-Based ($5.66). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
SMC Corporation manufactures, processes, and sells automatic control equipment worldwide. The company offers air management system, directional control valves, air cylinders, rotary actuators, air grippers, magnet grippers, electric actuators/cylinders, vacuum equipment, air grippers for collaborative robots, compact compressor, air preparation equipment, …
Full company description
SMC Corporation manufactures, processes, and sells automatic control equipment worldwide. The company offers air management system, directional control valves, air cylinders, rotary actuators, air grippers, magnet grippers, electric actuators/cylinders, vacuum equipment, air grippers for collaborative robots, compact compressor, air preparation equipment, modular F.R.L., pressure control equipment, booster regulators, lubrication equipment, gas generator, fittings and tubing, flow control equipment, speed controllers, silencers/exhaust cleaners/pressure gauges, air blowing equipment, switches/sensors/controllers, static neutralization equipment/ionizers, industrial device communication equipment/wireless system, process valves, chemical valves/fittings & tubing/needle valves, process pumps/diaphragm pumps, temperature control equipment, process gas equipment ap tech, high vacuum equipment, industrial filters/sintered metal elements, pneumatic instrumentation equipment, hydraulic equipment, and specialized products for general use. It serves automobiles, semiconductor/liquid crystal/electric, machine tool, food/beverages, physicochemical/medical/pharmaceutical, agriculture, energy, production facility, and other industries. The company was formerly known as Shoketsu Kinzoku Kogyo Co., Ltd. and changed its name to SMC Corporation in April 1986. SMC Corporation was incorporated in 1959 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
SMC Corporation reported revenue of $893B in FY2026 versus $727B in FY2022, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was $177B in FY2026, compounding −2.1%/yr from FY2022.
SMCAY screens 51% overvalued. Compare with GE Vernova Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Bears are Losing Control Over Smc (SMCAY), Here's Why It's a 'Buy' Now
- All You Need to Know About Smc (SMCAY) Rating Upgrade to Strong Buy
- Palliser Capital Publishes Value Enhancement Plan for SMC Corporation
- Smc (SMCAY) Upgraded to Strong Buy: What Does It Mean for the Stock?
Peer Group
Specialty Industrial Machinery · 809 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 38/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Industrial Machinery stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| GE Vernova Inc 1GEV | €887.60 | €186.93 | -79% |
| 1SIE 1SIE | €273.20 | €91.93 | -66% |
| SMNS SMNS | C$31.76 | C$22.68 | -29% |
| Eaton Corporation ETN | $407.28 | $171.92 | -58% |
| Atlas Copco AB ATCOA | kr 195.15 | kr 112.59 | -42% |
| Sandvik AB SAND | kr 384.10 | kr 193.01 | -50% |
| Doosan Enerbility Co 034020 | 76,400 KRW | 7,938 KRW | -90% |
| Vestas Wind Systems A/S VWS | kr 178.10 | kr 124.54 | -30% |
| Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent Controls Co 002050 | ¥43.20 | ¥22.68 | -48% |
| NARI Technology Co 600406 | ¥22.19 | ¥18.71 | -16% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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