SMC Corp (SMECF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 16, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of SMC Corp stock $266, price $411, upside -35.2%, quality 60 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 12, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $288.86 – $661.25 · fair‑value band $176.15 – $387.86 · the $411.00 price screens above the $266.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 12, 2026.
Follow SMC in your weekly email
Every Wednesday you see whether SMC is on track or worth a review, plus price against fair value. Free, up to 3 stocks.
We send you a confirmation link. Unsubscribe with one click.
SMC Corporation manufactures, processes, and sells automatic control equipment worldwide.
Show moreShow less
The company offers air management system, directional control valves, air cylinders, rotary actuators, air grippers, magnet grippers, electric actuators/cylinders, vacuum equipment, air grippers for collaborative robots, compact compressor, air preparation equipment, modular F.R.L., pressure control equipment, booster regulators, lubrication equipment, gas generator, fittings and tubing, flow control equipment, speed controllers, silencers/exhaust cleaners/pressure gauges, air blowing equipment, switches/sensors/controllers, static neutralization equipment/ionizers, industrial device communication equipment/wireless system, process valves, chemical valves/fittings & tubing/needle valves, process pumps/diaphragm pumps, temperature control equipment, process gas equipment ap tech, high vacuum equipment, industrial filters/sintered metal elements, pneumatic instrumentation equipment, hydraulic equipment, and specialized products for general use.
It serves automobiles, semiconductor/liquid crystal/electric, machine tool, food/beverages, physicochemical/medical/pharmaceutical, agriculture, energy, production facility, and other industries.
The company was formerly known as Shoketsu Kinzoku Kogyo Co., Ltd. and changed its name to SMC Corporation in April 1986. SMC Corporation was incorporated in 1959 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
SMC Corp (SMECF) currently trades at $411.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $266.28, 35.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
Show more
Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $354.23 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the $411.00 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $101.38, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $176.15 (bear) to $387.86 (bull), the price of $411.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
SMC Corp reported revenue of ¥848B in FY2026 versus ¥727B in FY2022, a compound +3.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥168B in FY2026, compounding −3.4%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $26.0B Large · P/E ratio 24.6 · P/S ratio 4.88 · EPS (TTM) $16.45 · Dividend yield 1.5% · Net margin 19.9% · Return on equity 8.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 10.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 64 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 28% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −48% fair-value upside, at −35%, SMECF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$176.15Fair Value $266.28Bull$387.86
Price $411.00 · Upside -35.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($5.60 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.57/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+7.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+0.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.0%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.0% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.4%
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
’26
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+9.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+7.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.5%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.7.7% vs 5.0%, steady
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.28% → 23%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+36.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+11.2%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +33.9% a year for the price and +8.9% for the forecasts.
AI conclusion: High margins in factory automation represent the main strength, while modest ROE and insufficient qualitative data limit any clear moat assessment.
Main risk: Temporary demand from key sectors would hit revenue stability in the core factory automation operations.
SMC recently completed a 50 billion yen share repurchase of over 720,000 shares alongside first-quarter revenue growth exceeding 35 percent tied to automation equipment. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Does the active capital return combined with this earnings momentum signal durable strength in its core factory automation operations or mainly temporary demand from key sectors?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Free, no sign-up
Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Specialty Industrial Machinery · 803 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score60 · Above median
Fair Value upside−35.2% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)8.3% · Above median
Return on assets7.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)19.9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)22.8% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)15.4% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.5% · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Specialty Industrial Machinery median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)24.6× · Cheaper than median
P/B1.93× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)4.89× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow113.0× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA14.7× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)77· sector 32
PAST (return on equity)33· sector 27
HEALTH (low debt)100· sector 96
DIVIDEND (yield)31· sector 27
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "SMC Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SMECF
Frequently asked questions
Is SMC Corp (SMECF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 12, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $266.28 versus a price of $411.00, about −35% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SMECF?
Our model-based fair value for SMC Corp is $266.28 (as of Oct 12, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $411.00.
What is the quality score of SMECF?
SMC Corp has a Quality Score of 60/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for SMC Corp (SMECF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $266.28 (as of Oct 12, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $176.15, optimistic scenario $387.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the SMC Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $266.28, about −35% upside versus a price of $411.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $176.15, optimistic scenario $387.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of SMC Corp (SMECF)?
SMC Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥843B (latest available figure, as of Oct 12, 2026).
Does SMC Corp pay a dividend?
SMC Corp currently shows a dividend yield of 1.54% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 12, 2026).
What growth is priced into SMC Corp (SMECF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, SMC Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +36.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.0 % per year. As of Oct 12, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SMECF use?
Our models discount SMC Corp at 8.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.85, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For SMC Corp that is +36.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has SMC Corp (SMECF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at SMC Corp grew +9.0 % a year. The price currently implies +36.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of SMC Corp (SMECF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.4 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into SMC Corp (+36.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of SMC Corp (SMECF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.88 %: that much free cash flow SMC Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of SMC Corp (SMECF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For SMC Corp it is $266.28 per share (as of Oct 12, 2026), against a price of $411.00. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is SMC Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 12, 2026, SMECF trades above its calculated fair value: price $411.00, fair value $266.28, a gap of about −35% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SMECF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($411.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($266.28). For SMC Corp the two are $144.72 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is SMC Corp worth?
The market values SMC Corp at about $26.0B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 12, 2026). Per share that is $411.00; our models calculate a fair value of $266.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SMECF?
Our models span a range for SMC Corp: cautious scenario $176.15, base $266.28, optimistic $387.86 per share (as of Oct 12, 2026, price $411.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SMECF?
SMC Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 24.6 (as of Oct 12, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $266.28 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.9, P/S 4.9, EV/EBITDA 14.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of SMC Corp (SMECF)?
Balance-sheet figures for SMC Corp (as of Oct 12, 2026): return on equity 8.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 60/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SMECF from its 52-week high?
SMC Corp trades at $411.00, about 24% below its 52-week high of $538.13 and 28% above the low of $322.00 (as of Oct 16, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $266.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to SMC Corp?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value GE Vernova Inc, SIE, Eaton Corporation, Parker-Hannifin Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is SMC Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 12, 2026: price $411.00, calculated fair value $266.28 (−35%), Quality Score 60/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SMECF calculated?
We run SMC Corp through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $266.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.8 % above its aggregate fair value. SMC Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of SMC Corp (SMECF)?
The closing price on Oct 16, 2026 was $411.00. Our model-based fair value is $266.28, about −35% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with SMC Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($387.86). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (60/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($176.15 to $387.86) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of SMC Corp (SMECF) come from?
Earnings per share at SMC Corp grew +5.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +6.7 %, EBIT margin −1.9 %, tax rate −0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of SMC Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of SMC Corp (SMECF)?
The market capitalisation of SMC Corp is $26.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of SMC Corp (SMECF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of SMC Corp is 4.88 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of SMC Corp (SMECF)?
Earnings per share at SMC Corp are $16.45 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 24.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of SMC Corp (SMECF)?
The dividend yield of SMC Corp is 1.5% (payout 38.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of SMC Corp (SMECF)?
The net margin of SMC Corp is 19.9% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of SMC Corp (SMECF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of SMC Corp is 8.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of SMC Corp (SMECF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of SMC Corp is 10.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of SMC Corp (SMECF)?
The operating margin of SMC Corp is 22.8% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at SMC Corp (SMECF)?
Revenue at SMC Corp is growing +15.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +0.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at SMC Corp (SMECF)?
Earnings per share at SMC Corp are growing +28.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does SMC Corp (SMECF) hold?
SMC Corp holds more cash than debt, ¥663B net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Free · no account needed
Watch SMC Corp in the live analysis
One click puts SMC Corp on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 28,000+ stock screener.
Broad data
Oct 12, 2026