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Star Minerals Ltd (SMS) fair value: what the stock is really worth

We calculate from audited financials what Star Minerals Ltd is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.

Valuation from Sep 13, 2026. With the latest figures (losses, negative cash flow), a fair value can no longer be calculated.
  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Basic Materials · AU · ISIN AU0000168874

SM Thin data Sep 13, 2026

Star Minerals Ltd

SMS · AU

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value A$0.0833 · Strongly undervalued (+98%)
!Quality 24/100
!Weak Growth
!negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (3/6)
!Narrow moat 8/100
!Insider activity 35/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

A$0.2200 A$0.0190 Fair Value A$0.0833 Oct 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

59‑month range A$0.0190 – A$0.2200 · fair‑value band A$0.0659 – A$0.0972 · the A$0.0420 price screens below the A$0.0833 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 13, 2026.

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Company profile

Star Minerals Limited, explores, develops, and evaluates gold, copper, and base metals properties in Australia. Its flagship project is the Tumblegum South Gold Project located south of Meekatharra in Western Australia. Star Minerals Limited was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Leederville, Australia.

Stock analysis

Star Minerals Ltd (SMS) currently trades at A$0.0420, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is A$0.0833, implying the stock looks roughly 49.6% undervalued today.

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Valuation

How firm this estimate is: it rests on 3 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.

Scenario range: A$0.0659 (bear) to A$0.0972 (bull), the price of A$0.0420 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 24/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.

Star Minerals Ltd reported revenue of A$5.2K in FY2025 versus A$0 in FY2021. Reported net income was −A$1.9M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap A$13.2M (≈ $9.3M) · EPS (TTM) A$−0.0100 · Return on equity −24.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) −15.3% · Operating margin −7,479% · Revenue (TTM) A$12.5K · Revenue growth (YoY) +193% · Free cash flow −A$1.6M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 44% below its 52-week high and 20% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at 14% fair-value upside, at 98%, SMS screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear A$0.0659 Fair Value A$0.0833 Bull A$0.0972
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0100 A$0.0200 A$0.0300 50
All 1 models by family
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) A$0.0100 A$0.0200 A$0.0300 50

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 24/100

Of which business quality 30 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24

Profitability 0
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 25
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 5
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 88
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 66
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 43
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 21
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Gold · 238 stocks

Beats the industry median on 3/5 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 24 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +98% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −15% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 193% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Gold median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.24× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 100
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 17
HEALTH (low debt)0 · sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 20

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Gold stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Zijin Mining Group 601899 ¥31.41 ¥43.81 +39%
Newmont Corporation NEM A$177.02 A$265.78 +50%
Agnico Eagle Mines Limited AEM $195.57 $222.49 +14%
Barrick Mining Corporation B $42.49 $65.40 +54%
Franco-Nevada Corporation FNV $260.91 $287.00 +10%
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp WPM $145.45 $89.12 −39%
AngloGold Ashanti plc AU $104.60 $88.63 −15%
Zijin Gold International Company 2259 HK$146.60 HK$83.20 −43%
Kinross Gold Corporation KGC $27.62 $51.30 +86%
Royal Gold, Inc RGLD $252.78 $278.06 +10%

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Star Minerals Ltd · Fair Value
A$0.0833 +50%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Star Minerals Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SMS

Frequently asked questions

Is Star Minerals Ltd (SMS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of A$0.0833 versus a price of A$0.0420, about +98% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SMS?
Our model-based fair value for Star Minerals Ltd is A$0.0833 (as of Sep 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: A$0.0420.
What is the quality score of SMS?
Star Minerals Ltd has a Quality Score of 24/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Star Minerals Ltd (SMS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of A$0.0833 (as of Sep 13, 2026) from 1 valuation models. Cautious scenario A$0.0659, optimistic scenario A$0.0972. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Star Minerals Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at A$0.0833, about +98% upside versus a price of A$0.0420 (undervalued). Cautious scenario A$0.0659, optimistic scenario A$0.0972. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Star Minerals Ltd (SMS)?
Star Minerals Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$12.5K (latest available figure, as of Sep 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Star Minerals Ltd (SMS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Star Minerals Ltd it is A$0.0833 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026), against a price of A$0.0420. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Star Minerals Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 13, 2026, SMS trades below its calculated fair value: price A$0.0420, fair value A$0.0833, a gap of about +98% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SMS?
No. The price is what the market pays today (A$0.0420); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (A$0.0833). For Star Minerals Ltd the two are A$0.0413 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Star Minerals Ltd worth?
The market values Star Minerals Ltd at about A$13.2M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 13, 2026). Per share that is A$0.0420; our models calculate a fair value of A$0.0833 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SMS?
Our models span a range for Star Minerals Ltd: cautious scenario A$0.0659, base A$0.0833, optimistic A$0.0972 per share (as of Sep 13, 2026, price A$0.0420). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Star Minerals Ltd (SMS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Star Minerals Ltd (as of Sep 13, 2026): return on equity −24.3%. They feed the Quality Score of 24/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SMS from its 52-week high?
Star Minerals Ltd trades at A$0.0420, about 44% below its 52-week high of A$0.0750 and 20% above the low of A$0.0350 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of A$0.0833 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Star Minerals Ltd?
From the same area (Basic Materials) we also value Zijin Mining Group, Newmont Corporation, Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, Barrick Mining Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Star Minerals Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 13, 2026: price A$0.0420, calculated fair value A$0.0833 (+98%), Quality Score 24/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SMS calculated?
We run Star Minerals Ltd through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of A$0.0833, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Star Minerals Ltd currently trades 98 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Star Minerals Ltd (SMS)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was A$0.0420. Our model-based fair value is A$0.0833, about +98% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Star Minerals Ltd right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (24/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (A$0.0659). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Star Minerals Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Star Minerals Ltd (SMS)?
The market capitalisation of Star Minerals Ltd is A$13.2M (≈ $9.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Star Minerals Ltd (SMS)?
Earnings per share at Star Minerals Ltd are A$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of Star Minerals Ltd (SMS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Star Minerals Ltd is −24.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Star Minerals Ltd (SMS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Star Minerals Ltd is −15.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Star Minerals Ltd (SMS)?
The operating margin of Star Minerals Ltd is −7,479% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Star Minerals Ltd (SMS)?
Revenue at Star Minerals Ltd is growing +193% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does Star Minerals Ltd (SMS) generate?
The free cash flow of Star Minerals Ltd is −A$1.6M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Star Minerals Ltd (SMS) hold?
Star Minerals Ltd holds more cash than debt, A$1.2M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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