Smart Eye AB (SMTEF) Fair Value & Analysis
Technology · US · Market cap $357M
Smart Eye AB
SMTEF · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $7.34 to $7.33 (−0.1%) since Jul 18, 2026. Share price +13.5% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 25% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($9.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (36/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($4.84 to $9.16) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $3.85 – $31.31 · fair‑value band $4.84 – $9.16 · the $9.82 price screens above the $7.33 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Smart Eye AB (SMTEF) currently trades at $9.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.33, implying the stock looks roughly 25.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 36/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Over the trailing twelve months, Smart Eye AB generated revenue of $382M at a net margin of -31.9%. Revenue grew 40.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -9.9%. Net debt stands at $198M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $4.84 (bear case) to $9.16 (bull case); at $9.82, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 81% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -40% fair-value upside, at -25%, SMTEF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 35 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Smart Eye AB (publ) develops human insight artificial intelligence (AI) technology solutions that understand, support, and predict human behavior in the Nordics countries, the rest of Europe, North America, Asia, and internationally.
Full company description
Smart Eye AB (publ) develops human insight artificial intelligence (AI) technology solutions that understand, support, and predict human behavior in the Nordics countries, the rest of Europe, North America, Asia, and internationally. The company provides driver monitoring systems and interior sensing solutions for automotive market; and AIS, an end-to-end driver monitoring hardware and software system for fleet and aftermarket. It offers various behavioral research products, including smart eye research instruments under the Smart Eye Pro, AI-X, XO, and Aurora names, as well as offers smart recorders, software, and analysis services to automotive, aviation and aerospace, media and marketing, psychology and neuroscience, and behavioral research industries. In addition, the company offers media analytics platform comprising emotion AI for video testing, a cloud-based service used for analyzing images and videos of humans expressing emotion to support qualitative research, and software development kits that enable developers to incorporate emotion sensing to their apps and digital experiences; and iMotions, a human insights software to collect and analyze human behavior data through eye tracking, galvanic skin response, facial expression analysis, EEG, EMG, and ECG on one convenient platform. Smart Eye AB (publ) was incorporated in 1999 and is based in Gothenburg, Sweden.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Smart Eye AB reported revenue of $403M in FY2025 versus $110M in FY2021, a compound +38.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$172M in FY2025.
SMTEF screens 25% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →
Peer Group
Software - Application · 713 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Software - Application stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| SAP SE SAPS | C$12.46 | C$16.26 | +30% |
| Shopify Inc SHOP | C$209.78 | C$28.76 | -86% |
| Uber Technologies, Inc UBER | $75.36 | $43.66 | -42% |
| Salesforce, Inc CRM | $193.32 | $249.28 | +29% |
| ServiceNow, Inc NOW | $124.94 | $43.73 | -65% |
| Cadence Design Systems, Inc CDNS | $323.13 | $112.57 | -65% |
| Beijing Kingsoft Office Software, Inc 688111 | ¥254.50 | ¥81.23 | -68% |
| Tata Elxsi Limited TATAELXSI | ₹3,712 | ₹2,519 | -32% |
| Douzone Bizon Co 012510 | 120,000 KRW | 92,181 KRW | -23% |
| KFin Technologies Limited KFINTECH | ₹922.00 | ₹556.85 | -40% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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