Sona Topas Tourism Industry (SONA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of Sona Topas Tourism Industry IDR 3,252, price IDR 2,390, upside +36.1%, quality 76 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 625.30 IDR – 9,868 IDR · fair‑value band 2,276 IDR – 4,227 IDR · the 2,390 IDR price screens below the 3,252 IDR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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PT Sona Topas Tourism Industry Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, offers tour and travel-related services in Indonesia. It operates through Travel and Retail Travel Shops segments. The company operates retail shops in Bali, Jakarta, Surabaya, Lombok, Medan, and Batam. It also sells tours and travel tickets; and handles related documents and tours.
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PT Sona Topas Tourism Industry Tbk, together with its subsidiaries, offers tour and travel-related services in Indonesia. It operates through Travel and Retail Travel Shops segments. The company operates retail shops in Bali, Jakarta, Surabaya, Lombok, Medan, and Batam. It also sells tours and travel tickets; and handles related documents and tours. The company was formerly known as PT Sona Topas and changed its name to PT Sona Topas Tourism Industry Tbk in October 1990. PT Sona Topas Tourism Industry Tbk was incorporated in 1978 and is based in Jakarta Selatan, Indonesia.
Stock analysis
Sona Topas Tourism Industry (SONA) currently trades at 2,390 IDR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 3,252 IDR, implying the stock looks roughly 26.5% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of 4,476 IDR per share, and 16 of the 26 models we run sit above the 2,390 IDR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 738.22 IDR, and 10 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: 2,276 IDR (bear) to 4,227 IDR (bull), the price of 2,390 IDR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Sona Topas Tourism Industry reported revenue of 900B IDR in FY2025 versus 67.9B IDR in FY2021, a compound +90.8%/yr. Reported net income was 89.1B IDR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 1.7T IDR (≈ $96.3M) · P/E ratio 16.5 · P/S ratio 1.63 · EPS (TTM) 144.89 IDR · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 9.9% · Return on equity 13.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 48 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 36%, SONA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear 2,276 IDRFair Value 3,252 IDRBull 4,227 IDR
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (67.59 IDR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.92/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+41.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+29.7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −4.5% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.2%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in IDR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in IDR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−8.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−10.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−11% vs −5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.−71% → 12%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 10.0%/yr over ~10Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+0.8%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Indonesia: IMF forecast 2.6% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −1.8% a year for the price.
Compare Sona Topas Tourism Industry with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Travel Services · 88 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score76 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+31% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)14% · Above median
Return on assets7% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)10% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)11% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth6% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)2.2% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.12× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Travel Services median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sona Topas Tourism Industry Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SONA
Frequently asked questions
Is Sona Topas Tourism Industry (SONA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 3,252 IDR versus a price of 2,390 IDR, about +36% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of SONA?
Our model-based fair value for Sona Topas Tourism Industry is 3,252 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 2,390 IDR.
What is the quality score of SONA?
Sona Topas Tourism Industry has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sona Topas Tourism Industry (SONA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 3,252 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario 2,276 IDR, optimistic scenario 4,227 IDR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sona Topas Tourism Industry stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 3,252 IDR, about +36% upside versus a price of 2,390 IDR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 2,276 IDR, optimistic scenario 4,227 IDR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sona Topas Tourism Industry (SONA)?
Sona Topas Tourism Industry reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 935B IDR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Sona Topas Tourism Industry pay a dividend?
Sona Topas Tourism Industry currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.21% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sona Topas Tourism Industry (SONA)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sona Topas Tourism Industry would have to grow free cash flow by +0.8 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +29.7 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SONA use?
Our models discount Sona Topas Tourism Industry at 15.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.07, country premium for Indonesia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sona Topas Tourism Industry that is +0.8 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sona Topas Tourism Industry (SONA) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sona Topas Tourism Industry grew +29.7 % a year. The price currently implies +0.8 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sona Topas Tourism Industry (SONA) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sona Topas Tourism Industry (+0.8 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sona Topas Tourism Industry (SONA)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 8.70 %: that much free cash flow Sona Topas Tourism Industry produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sona Topas Tourism Industry (SONA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sona Topas Tourism Industry it is 3,252 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 2,390 IDR. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sona Topas Tourism Industry stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SONA trades below its calculated fair value: price 2,390 IDR, fair value 3,252 IDR, a gap of about +36% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SONA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (2,390 IDR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (3,252 IDR). For Sona Topas Tourism Industry the two are 861.58 IDR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sona Topas Tourism Industry worth?
The market values Sona Topas Tourism Industry at about 1.7T IDR (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 2,390 IDR; our models calculate a fair value of 3,252 IDR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SONA?
Our models span a range for Sona Topas Tourism Industry: cautious scenario 2,276 IDR, base 3,252 IDR, optimistic 4,227 IDR per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 2,390 IDR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SONA?
Sona Topas Tourism Industry trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 16.5 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 3,252 IDR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.3, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 9.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sona Topas Tourism Industry (SONA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sona Topas Tourism Industry (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 13.8%, debt of 0.12 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 76/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SONA from its 52-week high?
Sona Topas Tourism Industry trades at 2,390 IDR, about 45% below its 52-week high of 4,338 IDR and 24% above the low of 1,920 IDR (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 3,252 IDR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sona Topas Tourism Industry?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Booking Holdings, Airbnb, Inc, Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd, Viking Holdings, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sona Topas Tourism Industry stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 2,390 IDR, calculated fair value 3,252 IDR (+36%), Quality Score 76/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SONA calculated?
We run Sona Topas Tourism Industry through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 3,252 IDR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Sona Topas Tourism Industry currently trades 36 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sona Topas Tourism Industry (SONA)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was 2,390 IDR. Our model-based fair value is 3,252 IDR, about +36% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sona Topas Tourism Industry right now?
The rarer combination: high quality (76/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. A fairly wide model range (2,276 IDR to 4,227 IDR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Sona Topas Tourism Industry (SONA) come from?
Earnings per share at Sona Topas Tourism Industry grew −7.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −10.5 %, EBIT margin −1.6 %, tax rate +0.7 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Sona Topas Tourism Industry
How large is the market capitalisation of Sona Topas Tourism Industry (SONA)?
The market capitalisation of Sona Topas Tourism Industry is 1.7T IDR (≈ $96.3M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sona Topas Tourism Industry (SONA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sona Topas Tourism Industry is 1.63 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sona Topas Tourism Industry (SONA)?
Earnings per share at Sona Topas Tourism Industry are 144.89 IDR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 16.5). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sona Topas Tourism Industry (SONA)?
The dividend yield of Sona Topas Tourism Industry is 2.2% (payout 36.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sona Topas Tourism Industry (SONA)?
The net margin of Sona Topas Tourism Industry is 9.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sona Topas Tourism Industry (SONA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sona Topas Tourism Industry is 13.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sona Topas Tourism Industry (SONA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sona Topas Tourism Industry is −0.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sona Topas Tourism Industry (SONA)?
The operating margin of Sona Topas Tourism Industry is 11.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sona Topas Tourism Industry (SONA)?
Revenue at Sona Topas Tourism Industry is growing +5.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg +41.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sona Topas Tourism Industry (SONA)?
Earnings per share at Sona Topas Tourism Industry are growing +54.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Sona Topas Tourism Industry (SONA) hold?
Sona Topas Tourism Industry holds more cash than debt, 540B IDR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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