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Stoneridge Inc (SRI) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Stoneridge Inc $2.13, price $7.00, upside -69.6%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Consumer Cyclical · US · ISIN US86183P1021

SI Stoneridge Inc logo Some data Sep 23, 2026

Stoneridge Inc

SRI · US

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value $2.13 · Strongly overvalued (−70%)
!Quality 44/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +5.9 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -14.2% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers (4/13)
!Narrow moat 13/100
!Insider activity 40/100
!Evidence only medium, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$31.63 $3.61 Fair Value $2.13 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $3.61 – $31.63 · fair‑value band $1.12 – $3.62 · the $7.00 price screens above the $2.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Stoneridge, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells engineered electrical and electronic systems, components, and modules for the commercial, automotive, off-highway, and agricultural vehicle markets in North America, South America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific.

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Stoneridge, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, manufactures, and sells engineered electrical and electronic systems, components, and modules for the commercial, automotive, off-highway, and agricultural vehicle markets in North America, South America, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. The company operates in two segments, Electronics and Stoneridge Brazil. The Electronics segment offers advanced driver information solutions, vision systems, connectivity and compliance solutions, and control modules for commercial vehicle and off-highway markets through OEM and aftermarket channels. The Stoneridge Brazil segment provides vehicle tracking devices and monitoring services, driver information systems, vehicle security alarms and convenience accessories, and telematics solutions and multimedia devices primarily for the automotive and commercial vehicle markets through aftermarket distribution channel, direct to OEMs, and factory authorized dealer installers. It sells monitoring services and tracking devices directly to corporate and individual customers. The company was founded in 1965 and is headquartered in Novi, Michigan.

Stock analysis

Stoneridge Inc (SRI) currently trades at $7.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.13, implying the stock looks roughly 228.6% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $4.27 per share, and 0 of the 10 models we run sit above the $7.00 price.

Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $1.54, and 10 of the 10 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $1.12 (bear) to $3.62 (bull), the price of $7.00 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.

Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.

Stoneridge Inc reported revenue of $861M in FY2025 versus $770M in FY2021, a compound +2.8%/yr. Reported net income was −$103M in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap $195M · P/S ratio 0.23 · EPS (TTM) $−3.94 · Net margin −11.9% · Return on equity −53.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.5% · Operating margin −5.3% · Revenue (TTM) $873M.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 48% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −19% fair-value upside, at −70%, SRI screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $1.12 Fair Value $2.13 Bull $3.62
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $2.13 $3.73 $5.77 79
Growth DCF $2.23 $3.71 $5.50 78
5Y EBITDA Exit $2.04 $4.62 $7.59 72
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $2.13 $3.73 $5.77 79
5Y Revenue Exit $0.7500 $2.38 $4.43 68
5Y EBITDA Exit $2.04 $4.62 $7.59 72
10Y Revenue Exit $1.26 $2.66 $4.24 65
10Y EBITDA Exit $2.03 $3.94 $6.12 67
Multiples
EV/EBITDA $2.90 $5.22 $7.54 65
EV/Revenue n/a $1.54 $3.22 50
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $3.18 $4.27 $6.37 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $2.23 $3.71 $5.50 78
Rev-Margin DCF $0.7500 $2.52 $4.51 68

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30

Profitability 31
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 26
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 16
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 51
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 99
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 0
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 47
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 34
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 75
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 37/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−5.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.9% a year
Revenue growth 29 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.0%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−1.2% (2020) → −1.4% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+26.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +24.0% a year for the price.

SRI screens 229% overvalued. Compare with O'Reilly Automotive, Inc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Auto Parts · 692 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/12 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 44 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −70% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −14% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −5% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 8% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 1.01× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Auto Parts median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.08× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.22× · Cheapest 25%
P/FCF 16.0× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 26.6× · Priciest 25%
PEG 0.26× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 27
FUTURE (revenue growth)40 · sector 21
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)50 · sector 95
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 38

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Ningbo Tuopu Group 601689 ¥45.71 ¥28.28 −38%
Bosch Limited BOSCHLTD ₹47,955 ₹25,325 −47%
Bharat Forge Limited BHARATFORG ₹2,004 ₹407.35 −80%
Huizhou Desay SV Automotive Co 002920 ¥84.71 ¥68.21 −19%

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Stoneridge Inc · Fair Value
$2.13 −229%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Stoneridge Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SRI

Frequently asked questions

Is Stoneridge Inc (SRI) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.13 versus a price of $7.00, about −70% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SRI?
Our model-based fair value for Stoneridge Inc is $2.13 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $7.00.
What is the quality score of SRI?
Stoneridge Inc has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Stoneridge Inc (SRI)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.13 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 10 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.12, optimistic scenario $3.62. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Stoneridge Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.13, about −70% upside versus a price of $7.00 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.12, optimistic scenario $3.62. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Stoneridge Inc (SRI)?
Stoneridge Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $873M (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Stoneridge Inc (SRI)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Stoneridge Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +26.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 15.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +5.9 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SRI use?
Our models discount Stoneridge Inc at 15.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 1.85, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Stoneridge Inc that is +26.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (15.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Stoneridge Inc (SRI) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Stoneridge Inc grew +5.9 % a year. The price currently implies +26.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Stoneridge Inc (SRI) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Stoneridge Inc (+26.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Stoneridge Inc (SRI)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 6.26 %: that much free cash flow Stoneridge Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (15.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Stoneridge Inc (SRI)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Stoneridge Inc it is $2.13 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $7.00. It is the blended result of 10 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Stoneridge Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SRI trades above its calculated fair value: price $7.00, fair value $2.13, a gap of about −70% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SRI?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($7.00); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.13). For Stoneridge Inc the two are $4.87 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Stoneridge Inc worth?
The market values Stoneridge Inc at about $195M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $7.00; our models calculate a fair value of $2.13 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SRI?
Our models span a range for Stoneridge Inc: cautious scenario $1.12, base $2.13, optimistic $3.62 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $7.00). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of SRI?
The PEG ratio of Stoneridge Inc is 0.26 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Stoneridge Inc (SRI)?
Balance-sheet figures for Stoneridge Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −53.6%, debt of 1.01 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SRI from its 52-week high?
Stoneridge Inc trades at $7.00, about 24% below its 52-week high of $9.17 and 48% above the low of $4.72 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.13 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Stoneridge Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value O'Reilly Automotive, Inc, AutoZone, Inc, Hyundai Mobis Co, Fuyao Glass Industry Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Stoneridge Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $7.00, calculated fair value $2.13 (−70%), Quality Score 44/100, from 10 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SRI calculated?
We run Stoneridge Inc through 10 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.13, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Stoneridge Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Stoneridge Inc (SRI)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $7.00. Our model-based fair value is $2.13, about −70% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Stoneridge Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.62). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($1.12 to $3.62). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.

Key figures of Stoneridge Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of Stoneridge Inc (SRI)?
The market capitalisation of Stoneridge Inc is $195M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Stoneridge Inc (SRI)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Stoneridge Inc is 0.23 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Stoneridge Inc (SRI)?
Earnings per share at Stoneridge Inc are $−3.94. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Stoneridge Inc (SRI)?
The net margin of Stoneridge Inc is −11.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Stoneridge Inc (SRI)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Stoneridge Inc is −53.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Stoneridge Inc (SRI)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Stoneridge Inc is 0.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Stoneridge Inc (SRI)?
The operating margin of Stoneridge Inc is −5.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Stoneridge Inc (SRI)?
Revenue at Stoneridge Inc is growing +7.9% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Stoneridge Inc (SRI)?
Earnings per share at Stoneridge Inc are growing +195% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Stoneridge Inc (SRI) carry?
The net debt of Stoneridge Inc is $124M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 10.2 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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