Shiseido Company Ltd (SSDOY) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Shiseido Company Ltd $2.65, price $22.48, upside -88.2%, quality 54 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Stretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $2.65 · Strongly overvalued (−88%)
!Quality 54/100
!Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +2.0 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -3.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·1.68% dividend yield
!Trails peers(2/12)
!Narrow moat24/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $13.43 – $69.10 · fair‑value band $2.65 – $3.43 · the $22.48 price screens above the $2.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Shiseido Company, Limited produces and sells in Japan and internationally. It offers fragrances, skincare, and makeup products through retail channels. The company also engages in the restaurant and food businesses; and operates beauty salons. In addition, it operates and supports SABFA, a professional hair makeup training school.
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Shiseido Company, Limited produces and sells in Japan and internationally. It offers fragrances, skincare, and makeup products through retail channels. The company also engages in the restaurant and food businesses; and operates beauty salons. In addition, it operates and supports SABFA, a professional hair makeup training school. Further, the company manages childcare facilities. It serves its products under the BAUM, BENEFIQUE, Clé de Peau Beauté, Dr. Dennis Gross Skincare, Drunk Elephant, EFFECTIM, Gallinée, INOUI, IPSA, ISSEY MIYAKE PARFUMS, NARS, narciso rodriguez, Serge Lutens, SHISEIDO, THE GINZA, Tory Burch Beauty, ZADIG&VOLTAIRE, ANESSA, AQUA LABEL, AUPRES, d program, ELIXIR, HAKU, INTEGRATE, MAJOLICA MAJORCA, MAQuillAGE, PRIOR, REVITAL, URARA, INRYU, The Collagen, and Perfect Cover brands. The company sells its products through department, specialized cosmetic, drug, and general merchandise stores. Shiseido Company, Limited was founded in 1872 and is headquartered in Chuo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Shiseido Company Ltd (SSDOY) currently trades at $22.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.65, implying the stock looks roughly 748.2% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $10.35 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the $22.48 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $2.65, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $2.65 (bear) to $3.43 (bull), the price of $22.48 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Defensive sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Shiseido Company Ltd reported revenue of ¥1.0T in FY2025 versus ¥1.0T in FY2021, a compound −0.4%/yr. Reported net income was −¥42.7B in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $9.0B · EPS (TTM) $−0.6300 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin −4.2% · Return on equity −5.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.3% · Operating margin 5.3% · Revenue (TTM) ¥974B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 67% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Defensive peers we cover trades at −25% fair-value upside, at −88%, SSDOY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.0785 to $13.49). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $2.65Fair Value $2.65Bull $3.43
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.34/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+2.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +2.9% a year
Revenue growth 30 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
1.6% (2020) → 1.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +6.2% a year for the price and −0.2% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (51 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Household & Personal Products · 250 stocks
Beats the industry median on 2/11 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score54 · Below median
Fair Value upside−88% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM)−4% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)5% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth2% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM)1.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.30× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Household & Personal Products median · lower = cheaper
P/FCF0.1× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA1.2× · Cheapest 25%
PEG2.18× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 33
FUTURE (revenue growth)8· sector 9
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 28
HEALTH (low debt)85· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)34· sector 55
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shiseido Company Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SSDOY
Frequently asked questions
Is Shiseido Company Ltd (SSDOY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.65 versus a price of $22.48, about −88% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SSDOY?
Our model-based fair value for Shiseido Company Ltd is $2.65 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $22.48.
What is the quality score of SSDOY?
Shiseido Company Ltd has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Shiseido Company Ltd (SSDOY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.65 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.65, optimistic scenario $3.43. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Shiseido Company Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.65, about −88% upside versus a price of $22.48 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.65, optimistic scenario $3.43. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Shiseido Company Ltd (SSDOY)?
Shiseido Company Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥974B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Shiseido Company Ltd pay a dividend?
Shiseido Company Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.68% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Shiseido Company Ltd (SSDOY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Shiseido Company Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +8.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.0 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SSDOY use?
Our models discount Shiseido Company Ltd at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.51, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Shiseido Company Ltd that is +8.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Shiseido Company Ltd (SSDOY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Shiseido Company Ltd grew +2.0 % a year. The price currently implies +8.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Shiseido Company Ltd (SSDOY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Shiseido Company Ltd (+8.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Shiseido Company Ltd (SSDOY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.82 %: that much free cash flow Shiseido Company Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Shiseido Company Ltd (SSDOY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Shiseido Company Ltd it is $2.65 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $22.48. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Shiseido Company Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, SSDOY trades above its calculated fair value: price $22.48, fair value $2.65, a gap of about −88% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SSDOY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($22.48); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.65). For Shiseido Company Ltd the two are $19.83 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Shiseido Company Ltd worth?
The market values Shiseido Company Ltd at about $9.0B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $22.48; our models calculate a fair value of $2.65 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SSDOY?
Our models span a range for Shiseido Company Ltd: cautious scenario $2.65, base $2.65, optimistic $3.43 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $22.48). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the PEG ratio of SSDOY?
The PEG ratio of Shiseido Company Ltd is 2.18 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Shiseido Company Ltd (SSDOY)?
Balance-sheet figures for Shiseido Company Ltd (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −5.6%, debt of 0.30 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 54/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SSDOY from its 52-week high?
Shiseido Company Ltd trades at $22.48, about 5% below its 52-week high of $23.68 and 67% above the low of $13.43 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.65 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Shiseido Company Ltd?
From the same area (Consumer Defensive) we also value The Procter & Gamble Company, Colgate-Palmolive Company, Hindustan Unilever Limited, Kenvue Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Shiseido Company Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $22.48, calculated fair value $2.65 (−88%), Quality Score 54/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SSDOY calculated?
We run Shiseido Company Ltd through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.65, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Shiseido Company Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Shiseido Company Ltd (SSDOY)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $22.48. Our model-based fair value is $2.65, about −88% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Shiseido Company Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.43). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of Shiseido Company Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Shiseido Company Ltd (SSDOY)?
The market capitalisation of Shiseido Company Ltd is $9.0B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What are the earnings per share of Shiseido Company Ltd (SSDOY)?
Earnings per share at Shiseido Company Ltd are $−0.6300. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Shiseido Company Ltd (SSDOY)?
The dividend yield of Shiseido Company Ltd is 1.7%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Shiseido Company Ltd (SSDOY)?
The net margin of Shiseido Company Ltd is −4.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Shiseido Company Ltd (SSDOY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Shiseido Company Ltd is −5.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Shiseido Company Ltd (SSDOY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Shiseido Company Ltd is 2.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Shiseido Company Ltd (SSDOY)?
The operating margin of Shiseido Company Ltd is 5.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Shiseido Company Ltd (SSDOY)?
Revenue at Shiseido Company Ltd is growing +1.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Shiseido Company Ltd (SSDOY)?
Earnings per share at Shiseido Company Ltd are growing +127% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Shiseido Company Ltd (SSDOY) carry?
The net debt of Shiseido Company Ltd is ¥231B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 3.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 23, 2026