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Stockland (STKAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Stockland $2.22, price $2.71, upside -18.2%, quality 62 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Stockland
STKAF · USOvervalued / MonitorQuality is not strong enough to offset the price risk.
!Fair value $2.22 · Overvalued (−18.2%)
✓Quality 62/100
!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +2.2 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 24.8% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!9.7% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Moderate moat 58/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.7529 – $4.17 · fair‑value band $1.31 – $2.86 · the $2.71 price screens above the $2.22 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Stockland is a leading creator and curator of connected communities with people at the heart of the places we create. For more than 70 years, we have built a proud legacy, helping more Australians achieve the dream of home ownership, and enabling the future of work and retail.
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Stockland is a leading creator and curator of connected communities with people at the heart of the places we create. For more than 70 years, we have built a proud legacy, helping more Australians achieve the dream of home ownership, and enabling the future of work and retail. Today, we continue to build on our history as one of Australia's largest diversified property groups to elevate the social value of our places, and create a tangible sense of human connection, belonging and community for our customers. We own, fund, develop and manage one of Australia's largest portfolios of residential and land lease communities, retail town centres, and workplace and logistics assets. Our approach is distinctive, bringing a unique combination of development expertise, scale, deep customer insight, and diverse talent - with care in everything we do. We are committed to contributing to the economic prosperity of Australia and the wellbeing of our communities and our planet. Stockland was incorporated in 1952 in Australia.
Stock analysis
Stockland (STKAF) currently trades at $2.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.22, 18.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $3.63 per share, and 3 of the 16 models we run sit above the $2.71 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $0.7300, and 13 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $1.31 (bear) to $2.86 (bull), the price of $2.71 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 62/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Stockland reported revenue of A$3.1B in FY2025 versus A$2.7B in FY2021, a compound +3.5%/yr. Reported net income was A$826M in FY2025, compounding −7.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $8.6B · P/E ratio 10.9 · P/S ratio 2.86 · EPS (TTM) $0.2500 · Dividend yield 9.7% · Net margin 26.4% · Return on equity 8.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 4.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 35% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −14% fair-value upside, at −18%, STKAF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $1.31
Fair Value $2.22
Bull $2.86
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$2.42
$2.59
$2.88
76
FCF DCF
$0.2300
$0.7400
$1.45
74
Growth DCF
$0.2600
$0.7300
$1.35
74
All 16 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$0.2300
$0.7400
$1.45
74
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.5800
$1.50
$2.64
69
5Y EBITDA Exit
$0.9600
$2.17
$3.53
72
10Y Revenue Exit
$0.3800
$1.16
$2.14
62
10Y EBITDA Exit
$0.6600
$1.61
$2.78
65
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$1.32
$2.25
$3.35
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$1.32
$1.93
$2.58
67
Multiples
P/S Multiple
$3.01
$4.02
$5.02
58
P/B Multiple
$3.01
$4.02
$5.02
55
EV/EBIT
$2.47
$3.63
$4.78
65
EV/EBITDA
$1.74
$2.65
$3.57
66
EV/Revenue
$0.9200
$1.74
$2.56
52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$1.46
$1.95
$2.91
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$0.2600
$0.7300
$1.35
74
Rev-Margin DCF
$0.5800
$1.51
$2.49
69
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$2.42
$2.59
$2.88
76
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
62/100
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 31
Profitability
39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
61
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
49
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
55
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
33
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
36
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
19
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
80
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
50/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+4.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.8% a year
Revenue growth 28 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.4%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
≈ +9.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−0.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)9.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.3.0% vs −0.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.26% → 23%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Rate on operating basis: 2025 sits 87% above its own trend.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+23.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in AUD, Australia: IMF forecast 3.0% a year to 2030, 2.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +20.0% a year for the price.
STKAF screens overvalued: fair value 18% below the price. Compare with Goodman Group →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (47 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Hype
Recent news coverage is unusually upbeat, far more positive than stocks are typically covered.
- Stockland Corp Ltd (STKAF) (FY 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: FFO Up 10. ...
- Stockland Corp Ltd (STKAF) (H1 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Strong FFO Growth and Surging ...
- Stockland's (ASX:SGP) investors will be pleased with their decent 86% return over the last three years
- Retail investors who have a significant stake must be disappointed along with institutions after Stockland's (ASX:SGP) market cap dropped by
Compare Stockland with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.REIT - Diversified · 153 stocks
Beats the industry median on 9/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs REIT - Diversified median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Real Estate sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Real Estate
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more REIT - Diversified stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Goodman Group GMG | A$25.91 | A$12.61 | −51% |
| VICI Properties Inc VICI | $23.51 | $58.78 | +150% |
| W. P. Carey Inc WPC | $63.83 | $69.91 | +10% |
| The GPT Group GPT | A$4.41 | A$3.49 | −21% |
| Charter Hall Group CHC | A$17.63 | A$3.25 | −82% |
| COV COV | €46.38 | €39.78 | −14% |
| Mirvac Group MGR | A$1.72 | A$2.05 | +20% |
| Broadstone Net Lease, Inc BNL | $18.91 | $18.42 | −3% |
| KLCC Property Holdings 5235SS | 8.52 MYR | 4.22 MYR | −50% |
| T82U T82U | 1.35 SGD | 1.02 SGD | −24% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Stockland (STKAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.22 versus a price of $2.71, about −18% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of STKAF?
Our model-based fair value for Stockland is $2.22 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.71.
What is the quality score of STKAF?
Stockland has a Quality Score of 62/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Stockland (STKAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.22 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.31, optimistic scenario $2.86. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Stockland stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.22, about −18% upside versus a price of $2.71 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.31, optimistic scenario $2.86. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Stockland (STKAF)?
Stockland reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about A$3.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Stockland pay a dividend?
Stockland currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.66% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Stockland (STKAF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Stockland would have to grow free cash flow by +23.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.2 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of STKAF use?
Our models discount Stockland at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.94, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Stockland that is +23.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Stockland (STKAF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Stockland grew +2.2 % a year. The price currently implies +23.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Stockland (STKAF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.8 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Stockland (+23.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Stockland (STKAF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.46 %: that much free cash flow Stockland produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Stockland (STKAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Stockland it is $2.22 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $2.71. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Stockland stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, STKAF trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.71, fair value $2.22, a gap of about −18% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of STKAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.71); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.22). For Stockland the two are $0.4925 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Stockland worth?
The market values Stockland at about $8.6B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $2.71; our models calculate a fair value of $2.22 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about STKAF?
Our models span a range for Stockland: cautious scenario $1.31, base $2.22, optimistic $2.86 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $2.71). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of STKAF?
Stockland trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 10.9 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.22 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.5, P/B 0.8, P/S 2.4, EV/EBITDA 13.7.
What is the PEG ratio of STKAF?
The PEG ratio of Stockland is 3.55 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Stockland (STKAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Stockland (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 8.6%, debt of 0.41 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 62/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is STKAF from its 52-week high?
Stockland trades at $2.71, about 35% below its 52-week high of $4.17 and 10% above the low of $2.46 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.22 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Stockland?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value Goodman Group, VICI Properties Inc, W. P. Carey Inc, The GPT Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Stockland stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $2.71, calculated fair value $2.22 (−18%), Quality Score 62/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of STKAF calculated?
We run Stockland through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.22, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Stockland itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Stockland (STKAF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $2.71. Our model-based fair value is $2.22, about −18% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Stockland right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (62/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($1.31 to $2.86) leaves room in how you read the outcome. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Where does the earnings growth of Stockland (STKAF) come from?
Earnings per share at Stockland grew −4.5 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.3 %, EBIT margin −1.0 %, tax rate −1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −5.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Stockland
How large is the market capitalisation of Stockland (STKAF)?
The market capitalisation of Stockland is $8.6B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Stockland (STKAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Stockland is 2.86 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Stockland (STKAF)?
Earnings per share at Stockland are $0.2500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 10.9). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Stockland (STKAF)?
The dividend yield of Stockland is 9.7% (payout 105%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Stockland (STKAF)?
The net margin of Stockland is 26.4% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Stockland (STKAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Stockland is 8.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Stockland (STKAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Stockland is 4.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Stockland (STKAF)?
The operating margin of Stockland is 21.6% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Stockland (STKAF)?
Revenue at Stockland is growing +30.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +3.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Stockland (STKAF)?
Earnings per share at Stockland are growing +17.6% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Stockland (STKAF) carry?
The net debt of Stockland is A$4.5B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 13.9 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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