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HG Holdings Inc (STLY) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of HG Holdings Inc stock $3.80, price $3.50, upside +8.6%, quality 48 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 4 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Financial Services US

HH HG Holdings Inc logo Some data Nov 3, 2026

HG Holdings Inc

STLY · US
Fairly valued, weak quality

The stock costs about what our calculation considers fair.

Solidly profitable · 14.2% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Costs just 9.7 times its yearly profit.
Fair value $3.80 · Fairly valued
Quality 48/100
Mixed vs. peers (8/14)
Moderate moat 49/100 · thin data
Some data
Weak Growth (revenue 3y −1.1 %/yr in USD)
⚠ Dilution⚠ Thinly traded
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

$11.75 $2.95 Fair Value $3.80 Jun 2020 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 3, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $2.95 – $11.75 · fair‑value band $2.85 – $4.74 · the $3.50 price screens below the $3.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. As of Nov 3, 2026.

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Company profile

HG Holdings, Inc. provides land title insurance for owners and mortgages in the United States. It operates through Title Insurance and Corporate and Other segments.

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The company issues title insurance policies; offers title agency services on residential and commercial real estate transactions; and closing and/or escrow services to facilitate real estate transactions.

It is also involved in real estate-related through its equity investments; provision of management advisory services, such as legal entity formation, licensure, regulatory approval, assumption of policies, and other general operational services; and reinsurance business.

The company was formerly known as Stanley Furniture Company, Inc. and changed its name to HG Holdings, Inc. in March 2018. HG Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1924 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.

Stock analysis

HG Holdings Inc (STLY) currently trades at $3.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.80, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 7.9%).

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Valuation

Bull case: the Economic Profit group reads highest at a median of $6.13 per share, and 3 of the 4 models we run sit above the $3.50 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $2.33, and 1 of the 4 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.

Scenario range: $2.85 (bear) to $4.74 (bull), the price of $3.50 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Financial Services sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.

HG Holdings Inc reported revenue of $15.1M in FY2025 versus $3.5M in FY2021, a compound +44.5%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5M in FY2025, compounding −13.7%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap $17.9M Micro · P/E ratio 9.7 · P/S ratio 1.10 · EPS (TTM) $0.3600 · Net margin 14.2% · Return on equity 6.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −12.1% (5-year average) · Operating margin 22.2%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 49 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at 9%, STLY screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear $2.85 Fair Value $3.80 Bull $4.74
Price $3.50 · Upside +8.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.3087 per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Residual Income $6.19 $6.13 $6.34 71
P/E Multiple $2.95 $3.94 $4.92 63
P/B Multiple $3.74 $4.99 $6.24 55
All 4 models by family
Multiples
P/E Multiple $2.95 $3.94 $4.92 63
P/B Multiple $3.74 $4.99 $6.24 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $1.54 $2.33 $2.91 55
Economic Profit
Residual Income $6.19 $6.13 $6.34 71

The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 24
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 58
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 43
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 89
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 75
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 27
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 11
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Insider trades

In the last 6 months, no officer or director bought or sold shares on the open market.

  • SaleTucker Golden Frederick10% owner60,240 shares at $4.75$286,140Mar 30, 2026

Sales are often planned (taxes, diversification, 10b5-1 plans). Purchases with their own money are seen as the stronger sign. For information only: not part of the quality score or Fair Value.

Source: SEC Form 4, as of Nov 6, 2026. All filings at the SEC ↗

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+23.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.1%
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+37.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+37.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 21.8%/yr over ~12Y (margin trend unclear) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.

Growth Forecast

Little optimism in the price
The price assumes less growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
−11.7%
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −13.7% a year for the price.

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Insurance - Specialty · 23 stocks

Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 48 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside +8.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 6.0% · Bottom 25%
Return on assets 3.0% · Below median
Net margin (12 months) 14.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months) 22.2% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 9.7% · Above median

Valuation Multiplesvs Insurance - Specialty median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 9.7× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.43× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (12 months) 1.10× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow (fiscal year) 20.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 2.8× · Cheapest 25%
PEG 1.88× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)45 · sector 40
FUTURE (revenue growth)49 · sector 23
PAST (return on equity)24 · sector 60
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 91
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 66

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Insurance - Specialty stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Assured Guaranty Ltd AGO $73.45 $119.47 +63% vs STLY
NMI Holdings NMIH $39.03 $47.67 +22% vs STLY
Radian Group RDN $35.97 $40.29 +12% vs STLY
Essent Group ESNT $63.41 $71.00 +12% vs STLY
AXIS Capital Holdings AXS $105.97 $117.17 +11% vs STLY
MGIC Investment Corporation MTG $28.60 $29.94 +5% vs STLY
Enact Holdings ACT $46.43 $44.39 −4% vs STLY
First American Financial Corporation FAF $67.01 $52.72 −21% vs STLY
Fidelity National Financial, Inc FNF $43.84 $29.18 −33% vs STLY
Medibank Private Limited MPL A$5.18 A$1.95 −62% vs STLY

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HG Holdings Inc: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "HG Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/STLY

Frequently asked questions

Is HG Holdings Inc (STLY) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.80 versus a price of $3.50, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of STLY?
Our model-based fair value for HG Holdings Inc is $3.80 (as of Nov 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $3.50.
What is the quality score of STLY?
HG Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for HG Holdings Inc (STLY)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.80 (as of Nov 3, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.85, optimistic scenario $4.74. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the HG Holdings Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.80, about +9% upside versus a price of $3.50 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $2.85, optimistic scenario $4.74. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of HG Holdings Inc (STLY)?
HG Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $16.2M (latest available figure, as of Nov 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into HG Holdings Inc (STLY)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, HG Holdings Inc would have to grow free cash flow by -11.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +85.7 % per year. As of Nov 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of STLY use?
Our models discount HG Holdings Inc at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (nano), damped by beta 0.16, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For HG Holdings Inc that is -11.7 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has HG Holdings Inc (STLY) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at HG Holdings Inc grew +85.7 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of -11.7 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of HG Holdings Inc (STLY) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into HG Holdings Inc (-11.7 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of HG Holdings Inc (STLY)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.91 %: that much free cash flow HG Holdings Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of HG Holdings Inc (STLY)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For HG Holdings Inc it is $3.80 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026), against a price of $3.50. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models in 3 families (Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit).
Is HG Holdings Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 3, 2026, STLY trades below its calculated fair value: price $3.50, fair value $3.80, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of STLY?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($3.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.80). For HG Holdings Inc the two are $0.2995 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is HG Holdings Inc worth?
The market values HG Holdings Inc at about $17.9M (market capitalisation, as of Nov 3, 2026). Per share that is $3.50; our models calculate a fair value of $3.80 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about STLY?
Our models span a range for HG Holdings Inc: cautious scenario $2.85, base $3.80, optimistic $4.74 per share (as of Nov 3, 2026, price $3.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of STLY?
HG Holdings Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 9.7 (as of Nov 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $3.80 is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 10.6 (reported for FY2025: 11.7). Other multiples: PEG 1.9, P/B 0.4, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 2.8.
What is the PEG ratio of STLY?
The PEG ratio of HG Holdings Inc is 1.88 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Nov 3, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of HG Holdings Inc (STLY)?
Balance-sheet figures for HG Holdings Inc (as of Nov 3, 2026): return on equity 6.0%. They feed the Quality Score of 48/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is STLY from its 52-week high?
HG Holdings Inc trades at $3.50, about 41% below its 52-week high of $5.95 and 11% above the low of $3.16 (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.80 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to HG Holdings Inc?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value Fidelity National Financial, Inc, Medibank Private Limited, AXIS Capital Holdings, First American Financial Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is HG Holdings Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 3, 2026: price $3.50, calculated fair value $3.80 (+9%), Quality Score 48/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of STLY calculated?
We run HG Holdings Inc through 4 models from 3 families: Multiples, Asset-Based, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of $3.80 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. HG Holdings Inc currently trades 8% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of HG Holdings Inc (STLY)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was $3.50. Our model-based fair value is $3.80, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with HG Holdings Inc right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.

Key figures of HG Holdings Inc

How large is the market capitalisation of HG Holdings Inc (STLY)?
The market capitalisation of HG Holdings Inc is $17.9M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of HG Holdings Inc (STLY)?
The price-to-sales ratio of HG Holdings Inc is 1.10 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of HG Holdings Inc (STLY)?
Earnings per share at HG Holdings Inc are $0.3600 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 9.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of HG Holdings Inc (STLY)?
The net margin of HG Holdings Inc is 14.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of HG Holdings Inc (STLY)?
The return on equity (ROE) of HG Holdings Inc is 6.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of HG Holdings Inc (STLY)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of HG Holdings Inc is −12.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of HG Holdings Inc (STLY)?
The operating margin of HG Holdings Inc is 22.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at HG Holdings Inc (STLY)?
Revenue at HG Holdings Inc is growing +9.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at HG Holdings Inc (STLY)?
Earnings per share at HG Holdings Inc are growing −51.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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