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Santos Limited (STOSF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Santos Limited $3.08, price $5.89, upside -47.7%, quality 51 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Broad data
Oct 3, 2026
Santos Limited
STOSF · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $3.08 · Strongly overvalued (−47.7%)
!Quality 51/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +9.2 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 16.6% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!4.0% dividend yield · Watch coverage
!Moderate moat 48/100
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.22 – $6.53 · fair‑value band $2.15 – $4.00 · the $5.89 price screens above the $3.08 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 3, 2026.
Company profile
Santos Limited explores, develops, produces, transports, and markets hydrocarbons in Australia and Papua New Guinea. The company's assets are located in the Alaska, Cooper Basin, Queensland and New South Wales, Papua New Guinea, Northern Australia, Timor-Leste and Western Australia. It also engages in the development of decarbonization technologies.
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Santos Limited explores, develops, produces, transports, and markets hydrocarbons in Australia and Papua New Guinea. The company's assets are located in the Alaska, Cooper Basin, Queensland and New South Wales, Papua New Guinea, Northern Australia, Timor-Leste and Western Australia. It also engages in the development of decarbonization technologies. In addition, the company produces crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, ethane, liquefied natural gas, and condensate, as well as natural gas. Santos Limited was incorporated in 1954 and is headquartered in Adelaide, Australia.
Stock analysis
Santos Limited (STOSF) currently trades at $5.89, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $3.08, 47.7% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $3.35 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the $5.89 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $1.16, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $2.15 (bear) to $4.00 (bull), the price of $5.89 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Santos Limited reported revenue of $5.3B in FY2025 versus $4.7B in FY2021, a compound +2.8%/yr. Reported net income was $846M in FY2025, compounding +6.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $19.2B · P/E ratio 23.6 · P/S ratio 3.79 · EPS (TTM) $0.2500 · Dividend yield 4.0% · Net margin 16.1% · Return on equity 5.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.6%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 31 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 51% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −48%, STOSF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $2.15
Fair Value $3.08
Bull $4.00
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.0098 per share) are deliberately not added.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
FCF DCF
$1.22
$2.36
$4.01
75
EPV
$1.71
$2.22
$2.66
74
Growth DCF
$1.29
$2.35
$3.81
74
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF
$1.22
$2.36
$4.01
75
Owner Earnings
$2.01
$3.51
$5.67
72
5Y Revenue Exit
$0.4000
$1.12
$1.99
66
5Y EBITDA Exit
$2.27
$4.45
$6.90
71
5Y P/E Exit
$1.11
$2.39
$3.66
67
10Y Revenue Exit
$0.6400
$1.34
$2.18
62
10Y EBITDA Exit
$1.85
$3.60
$5.77
64
10Y P/E Exit
$1.13
$2.21
$3.41
60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$1.77
$4.22
$5.44
63
PEG = 1.0
$0.7400
$1.05
$1.37
55
EPV
$1.71
$2.22
$2.66
74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$2.25
$3.94
$6.06
65
DDM Multi-Stage
$2.25
$3.35
$4.56
64
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$2.74
$3.65
$4.56
63
P/S Multiple
$1.46
$1.94
$2.43
58
P/B Multiple
$3.32
$4.43
$5.54
55
EV/EBIT
$1.95
$3.05
$4.14
65
EV/EBITDA
$3.46
$5.06
$6.66
67
EV/Revenue
$0.0200
$0.6000
$1.19
46
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$2.41
$3.23
$4.83
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$1.29
$2.35
$3.81
74
Rev-Margin DCF
$0.4000
$1.16
$1.98
67
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$3.78
$3.90
$4.16
74
ROIC Compounder
$1.71
$2.22
$2.66
70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$2.15
$3.08
$4.00
65
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
51/100
Of which business quality 50 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Profitability
28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
23
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
64
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
44
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
58
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
77
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
91
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
88
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−2.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−12.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.2%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +5.0% a year
Revenue growth 24 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.5%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
−0.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−4.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.18% → 27%
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 6.8%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+20.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+8.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +17.2% a year for the price and +6.1% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+36.9%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+2.6%
Projected 2028 (sales)+2.5%
Projected 2029 (sales)+2.5%
Projected 2030 (sales)+2.4%
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
Compare Santos Limited with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 264 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Energy sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Energy
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Oil & gas
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10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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|---|---|---|---|
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $127.06 | $91.42 | −28% |
| CNOOC Limited 0883 | HK$23.40 | HK$39.91 | +71% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $47.55 | $52.31 | +10% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $137.76 | $165.02 | +20% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $57.84 | $33.18 | −43% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $46.73 | $51.40 | +10% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $185.23 | $243.76 | +32% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$31.48 | A$23.87 | −24% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $50.09 | $55.10 | +10% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $336.46 | $317.06 | −6% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Santos Limited (STOSF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 3, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $3.08 versus a price of $5.89, about −48% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of STOSF?
Our model-based fair value for Santos Limited is $3.08 (as of Oct 3, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $5.89.
What is the quality score of STOSF?
Santos Limited has a Quality Score of 51/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Santos Limited (STOSF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $3.08 (as of Oct 3, 2026) from 25 valuation models. Cautious scenario $2.15, optimistic scenario $4.00. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Santos Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $3.08, about −48% upside versus a price of $5.89 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $2.15, optimistic scenario $4.00. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Santos Limited (STOSF)?
Santos Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $4.9B (latest available figure, as of Oct 3, 2026).
Does Santos Limited pay a dividend?
Santos Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.02% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 3, 2026).
What growth is priced into Santos Limited (STOSF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Santos Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +20.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.2 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.2 % per year. As of Oct 3, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of STOSF use?
Our models discount Santos Limited at 9.2 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Santos Limited that is +20.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.2 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Santos Limited (STOSF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Santos Limited grew +9.2 % a year. The price currently implies +20.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Santos Limited (STOSF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Santos Limited (+20.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Santos Limited (STOSF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.35 %: that much free cash flow Santos Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.2 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Santos Limited (STOSF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Santos Limited it is $3.08 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026), against a price of $5.89. It is the blended result of 25 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Santos Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 3, 2026, STOSF trades above its calculated fair value: price $5.89, fair value $3.08, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of STOSF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($5.89); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($3.08). For Santos Limited the two are $2.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Santos Limited worth?
The market values Santos Limited at about $19.2B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 3, 2026). Per share that is $5.89; our models calculate a fair value of $3.08 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about STOSF?
Our models span a range for Santos Limited: cautious scenario $2.15, base $3.08, optimistic $4.00 per share (as of Oct 3, 2026, price $5.89). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of STOSF?
Santos Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.6 (as of Oct 3, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $3.08 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 1.1, P/S 3.4, EV/EBITDA 7.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Santos Limited (STOSF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Santos Limited (as of Oct 3, 2026): return on equity 5.2%, debt of 0.39 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 51/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is STOSF from its 52-week high?
Santos Limited trades at $5.89, about 10% below its 52-week high of $6.53 and 51% above the low of $3.89 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $3.08 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Santos Limited?
From the same area (Energy) we also value ConocoPhillips explores for,, CNOOC Limited, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Santos Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 3, 2026: price $5.89, calculated fair value $3.08 (−48%), Quality Score 51/100, from 25 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of STOSF calculated?
We run Santos Limited through 25 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $3.08, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Santos Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Santos Limited (STOSF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $5.89. Our model-based fair value is $3.08, about −48% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Santos Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($4.00). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($2.15 to $4.00) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Santos Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Santos Limited (STOSF)?
The market capitalisation of Santos Limited is $19.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Santos Limited (STOSF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Santos Limited is 3.79 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Santos Limited (STOSF)?
Earnings per share at Santos Limited are $0.2500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Santos Limited (STOSF)?
The dividend yield of Santos Limited is 4.0% (payout 94.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Santos Limited (STOSF)?
The net margin of Santos Limited is 16.1% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Santos Limited (STOSF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Santos Limited is 5.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Santos Limited (STOSF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Santos Limited is 6.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Santos Limited (STOSF)?
The operating margin of Santos Limited is 25.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Santos Limited (STOSF)?
Revenue at Santos Limited is growing −11.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg −12.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Santos Limited (STOSF)?
Earnings per share at Santos Limited are growing −35.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Santos Limited (STOSF) carry?
The net debt of Santos Limited is $5.8B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 9.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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