SU Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares (SUGP) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $4.9M
SU Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares
SUGP · US
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 7 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $2.97 to $8.00 (+169.4%) since Jul 19, 2026. Share price +1.8% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 188% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($6.00). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- Solid quality (45/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
31‑month range $1.91 – $200.00 · fair‑value band $6.00 – $10.00 · the $2.78 price screens below the $8.00 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
SU Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares (SUGP) currently trades at $2.78, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $8.00, implying the stock looks roughly 188.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 45/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, SU Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares generated revenue of $192M at a net margin of -9.6%. Revenue declined 6.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -20.1%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $45.0M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $6.00 (bear case) to $10.00 (bull case); at $2.78, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 6% fair-value upside, at 188%, SUGP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($17.44) versus Asset-Based ($2.34). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 14
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
SU Group Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated security-related services company in Hong Kong and internationally. It operates in two segments, Security-Related Engineering Services Business, and Security Guarding and Screening Services Business.
Full company description
SU Group Holdings Limited, through its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated security-related services company in Hong Kong and internationally. It operates in two segments, Security-Related Engineering Services Business, and Security Guarding and Screening Services Business. The company provides security-related engineering, security guarding and screening, and related vocational training services. It also engages in the design, supply, installation, maintenance, and testing and commissioning of various security systems. In addition, the company offers threat detection systems, including X-ray machines, trace detection products, metal detectors, and mail screening machines; traffic and pedestrian control systems, such as traffic control, automatic fare control, automatic door, and people counting systems, as well as turnstiles; and ELV systems, such as CCTV systems, access control systems, public address systems, and building management systems. Further, the company provides screening services, such as the detection of explosives, and incendiary devices in air cargo consignment and detection of dangerous goods through threat detection systems by screeners; and training courses for basic security services, mandatory basic safety, and training revalidation courses. Additionally, it offers leasing equipment and project and maintenance services. SU Group Holdings Limited was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in Kwun Tong, Hong Kong. SU Group Holdings Limited is a subsidiary of Exceptional Engineering Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
SU Group Holdings Limited Ordinary Shares reported revenue of $182M in FY2025 versus $118M in FY2021, a compound +11.6%/yr. Reported net income was $10.7M in FY2025, compounding +16.4%/yr from FY2021.
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Peer Group
Security & Protection Services · 113 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Security & Protection Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ASSA ABLOY AB ASSAB | kr 360.50 | kr 269.97 | -25% |
| Verisure plc VSURE | €9.33 | €12.40 | +33% |
| Allegion plc ALLE | $166.11 | $127.80 | -23% |
| Securitas AB SECUB | kr 147.90 | kr 186.34 | +26% |
| Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 | ¥16.46 | ¥31.47 | +91% |
| MSA Safety Incorporated MSA | $192.04 | $116.42 | -39% |
| ADT Inc ADT | $7.31 | $16.68 | +128% |
| The Brink's Company BCO | $113.96 | $121.18 | +6% |
| Brady Corporation BRC | $95.12 | $72.32 | -24% |
| The GEO Group GEO | $31.45 | $25.50 | -19% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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