Latham Group (SWIM) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $682M
Latham Group
SWIM · US
Fair value as of: Jul 19, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price +27.2% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 73% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($2.15). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $2.11 – $32.70 · fair‑value band $1.27 – $2.15 · the $7.48 price screens above the $1.99 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 19, 2026.
Analysis
Latham Group (SWIM) currently trades at $7.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1.99, implying the stock looks roughly 73.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Latham Group generated revenue of $552M at a net margin of 1.6%. Revenue grew 5.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 2.2%. Net debt stands at $240M. Fundamentals as of Jul 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $1.27 (bear case) to $2.15 (bull case); at $7.48, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 17% below its 52-week high and 61% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -33% fair-value upside, at -73%, SWIM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($2.32) versus Economic Profit ($0.3800). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Latham Group, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets in-ground residential swimming pools in North America, Australia, and New Zealand. The company offers in-ground swimming pools, including fiberglass and packaged pools; and covers, such as automatic safety and all-season pool covers; and liners.
Full company description
Latham Group, Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets in-ground residential swimming pools in North America, Australia, and New Zealand. The company offers in-ground swimming pools, including fiberglass and packaged pools; and covers, such as automatic safety and all-season pool covers; and liners. It sells its products directly to dealers and distributors who warehouse the products and sell to dealers under the Latham, The Pool Company brand name, as well as sub-brands comprising Narellan, CoverStar, Radiant, and GLI brands. The company was formerly known as Latham Topco, Inc. and changed its name to Latham Group, Inc. in March 2021. Latham Group, Inc. was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Latham, New York.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Latham Group reported revenue of $546M in FY2025 versus $630M in FY2021, a compound −3.5%/yr. Reported net income was $11.1M in FY2025.
SWIM screens 73% overvalued. Compare with Trane Technologies plc →
Peer Group
Building Products & Equipment · 247 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Building Products & Equipment median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Building Products & Equipment stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Trane Technologies plc TT | $469.98 | $212.34 | -55% |
| Johnson Controls International plc JCI | $142.81 | $45.65 | -68% |
| Carrier Global Corporation CARR | $68.61 | $17.35 | -75% |
| Compagnie de Saint-Gobain S.A SGO | €76.62 | €101.60 | +33% |
| Geberit AG GEBN | CHF 523.20 | CHF 307.66 | -41% |
| Lennox International Inc LII | $543.93 | $363.09 | -33% |
| Kingspan Group KRX | €87.30 | €70.76 | -19% |
| Masco Corporation MAS | $78.04 | $54.36 | -30% |
| PT Impack Pratama Industri Tbk, IMPC | 1,420 IDR | 179.76 IDR | -87% |
| NIBE Industrier AB NIBEB | kr 36.03 | kr 25.37 | -30% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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