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Swire Pacific Limited (SWRAF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Swire Pacific Limited $2.19, price $11.05, upside -80.2%, quality 59 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? No
- Good quality? Yes
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Thin data
Sep 29, 2026
Thin data
Sep 29, 2026
Swire Pacific Limited
SWRAF · USStretched ValuationStrong overvaluation with only moderate quality.
!Fair value $2.19 · Strongly overvalued (−80.2%)
!Quality 59/100
✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +2.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.3% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓4.4% dividend yield · Sustainable
!Narrow moat 36/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.86 – $11.40 · fair‑value band $1.63 – $3.92 · the $11.05 price screens above the $2.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 29, 2026.
Company profile
Swire Pacific Limited engages in the property, aviation, beverages, marine, and trading and industrial businesses in Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan, rest of Asia, the United States, and internationally. The company's Property division develops, owns, and operates mixed-use properties.
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Swire Pacific Limited engages in the property, aviation, beverages, marine, and trading and industrial businesses in Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan, rest of Asia, the United States, and internationally. The company's Property division develops, owns, and operates mixed-use properties. This division's property investment portfolio comprises office towers, shopping malls, hotels, retail space, star hotels, and serviced apartments, as well as residential projects; and trading portfolio consists of residential properties. It also owns and manages hotels in Hong Kong and Mainland China, as well as owns interests in the Mandarin Oriental hotel in the United States. The company's Aviation division provides flight catering, and passenger and ramp handling services; and owns and operates a cargo terminal at Hong Kong International Airport, as well as offers aircraft maintenance and modification services. Its Beverages division owns rights to manufacture, market, and distribute beverages to consumers. The company's Trading & Industrial division markets, retails, and distributes footwear, apparel, and accessories through its retail outlets; sells passenger cars, commercial vehicles, motorcycles, and scooters; operates a chain of bakeries; packages and sells sugar products under the Taikoo Sugar brand; and offers waste management, business consultancy, and financial services, as well as engages in property trading and investment activities. Swire Pacific Limited was founded in 1816 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. Swire Pacific Limited operates as a subsidiary of John Swire & Sons (H.K.) Limited.
Stock analysis
Swire Pacific Limited (SWRAF) currently trades at $11.05, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $2.19, 80.2% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $6.11 per share, and 0 of the 13 models we run sit above the $11.05 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $0.6100, and 13 of the 13 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $1.63 (bear) to $3.92 (bull), the price of $11.05 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Swire Pacific Limited reported revenue of HK$90.4B in FY2025 versus HK$91.2B in FY2021, a compound −0.2%/yr. Reported net income was HK$2.9B in FY2025, compounding −13.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $40.3B · P/E ratio 41.1 · P/S ratio 1.34 · EPS (TTM) $0.2700 · Dividend yield 4.4% · Net margin 3.2% · Return on equity 1.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 3.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at −80%, SWRAF screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($0.6100 to $6.11). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear $1.63
Fair Value $2.19
Bull $3.92
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Growth DCF
$2.85
$4.95
$7.93
77
Residual Income
$6.30
$5.96
$5.79
76
Rev-Margin DCF
$2.02
$4.03
$6.32
71
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
$0.0200
$0.9200
$2.27
66
5Y P/E Exit
$0.8100
$1.77
$2.74
69
10Y P/E Exit
$1.48
$2.47
$3.60
63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.7000
$2.05
$2.71
65
Lynch FV
$0.4300
$0.6100
$0.7900
61
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$1.48
$3.09
$4.90
66
DDM Multi-Stage
$1.48
$2.39
$3.24
66
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$1.63
$2.17
$2.71
63
P/B Multiple
$1.32
$1.75
$2.19
55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$4.56
$6.11
$9.12
54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF
$2.85
$4.95
$7.93
77
Rev-Margin DCF
$2.02
$4.03
$6.32
71
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$6.30
$5.96
$5.79
76
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
59/100
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75
Profitability
16
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
54
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
64
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
42
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
87
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
78
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
98
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
64/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−0.3%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.9%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +4.0% a year
Revenue growth 27 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+22.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+18.1%
Dividend (yield on the price)4.4%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.18.1% vs −11.5%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.10% → 12%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+5.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+4.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in HKD, Hong Kong: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.8% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +3.2% a year for the price and +2.3% for the forecasts.
Forecast 2026 (sales)+4.4%
Forecast 2027 (sales)+5.1%
Projected 2028 (sales)+4.7%
Projected 2029 (sales)+4.4%
Projected 2030 (sales)+4.0%
SWRAF screens overvalued: fair value 80% below the price. Compare with 3M Company →
Earlier news
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (72 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.
Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
- Swire Pacific Ltd's Dividend Analysis
- Here's Why Momentum in Swire Pacific (SWRAY) Should Keep going
- Assessing Swire Pacific (SEHK:19) Valuation After Its Strong Recent Share Price Run
- Here's What Could Help Swire Pacific (SWRAY) Maintain Its Recent Price Strength
Compare Swire Pacific Limited with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 358 stocks
Beats the industry median on 10/15 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Industrials sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Industrials
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
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|---|---|---|---|
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| Honeywell International Inc HON | $210.94 | $244.82 | +16% |
| CITIC Limited 0267 | HK$12.94 | HK$25.88 | +100% |
| SK Inc 034730 | 611,000 KRW | 348,688 KRW | −43% |
| Jardine Matheson Holdings J36 | $55.36 | $78.34 | +42% |
| Keppel Ltd BN4 | 11.30 SGD | 3.88 SGD | −66% |
| Kingdom Holding 4280 | 13.08 SAR | 13.40 SAR | +2% |
| Koç Holding KCHOL | 216.50 TRY | 182.26 TRY | −16% |
| Aker ASA AKER | kr 1,396 | kr 1,017 | −27% |
| thyssenkrupp AG TKA | €14.01 | €15.69 | +12% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Swire Pacific Limited (SWRAF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 29, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $2.19 versus a price of $11.05, about −80% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SWRAF?
Our model-based fair value for Swire Pacific Limited is $2.19 (as of Sep 29, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $11.05.
What is the quality score of SWRAF?
Swire Pacific Limited has a Quality Score of 59/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Swire Pacific Limited (SWRAF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $2.19 (as of Sep 29, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario $1.63, optimistic scenario $3.92. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Swire Pacific Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $2.19, about −80% upside versus a price of $11.05 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $1.63, optimistic scenario $3.92. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Swire Pacific Limited (SWRAF)?
Swire Pacific Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$90.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 29, 2026).
Does Swire Pacific Limited pay a dividend?
Swire Pacific Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.38% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 29, 2026).
What growth is priced into Swire Pacific Limited (SWRAF)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Swire Pacific Limited would have to grow free cash flow by +5.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.9 % per year. As of Sep 29, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SWRAF use?
Our models discount Swire Pacific Limited at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.48, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Swire Pacific Limited that is +5.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Swire Pacific Limited (SWRAF) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Swire Pacific Limited grew +2.9 % a year. The price currently implies +5.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Swire Pacific Limited (SWRAF) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.0 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Swire Pacific Limited (+5.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Swire Pacific Limited (SWRAF)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.61 %: that much free cash flow Swire Pacific Limited produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Swire Pacific Limited (SWRAF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Swire Pacific Limited it is $2.19 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026), against a price of $11.05. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Swire Pacific Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 29, 2026, SWRAF trades above its calculated fair value: price $11.05, fair value $2.19, a gap of about −80% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SWRAF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($11.05); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($2.19). For Swire Pacific Limited the two are $8.86 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Swire Pacific Limited worth?
The market values Swire Pacific Limited at about $40.3B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 29, 2026). Per share that is $11.05; our models calculate a fair value of $2.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SWRAF?
Our models span a range for Swire Pacific Limited: cautious scenario $1.63, base $2.19, optimistic $3.92 per share (as of Sep 29, 2026, price $11.05). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SWRAF?
Swire Pacific Limited trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 41.1 (as of Sep 29, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $2.19 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 0.2, P/S 0.4, EV/EBITDA 6.1.
What is the PEG ratio of SWRAF?
The PEG ratio of Swire Pacific Limited is 0.28 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 29, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Swire Pacific Limited (SWRAF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Swire Pacific Limited (as of Sep 29, 2026): return on equity 1.1%, debt of 0.28 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 59/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SWRAF from its 52-week high?
Swire Pacific Limited trades at $11.05, about 3% below its 52-week high of $11.40 and 45% above the low of $7.61 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $2.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Swire Pacific Limited?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, CITIC Limited, SK Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Swire Pacific Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 29, 2026: price $11.05, calculated fair value $2.19 (−80%), Quality Score 59/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SWRAF calculated?
We run Swire Pacific Limited through 13 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $2.19, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Swire Pacific Limited itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Swire Pacific Limited (SWRAF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $11.05. Our model-based fair value is $2.19, about −80% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Swire Pacific Limited right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($3.92). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (59/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($1.63 to $3.92) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Swire Pacific Limited (SWRAF) come from?
Earnings per share at Swire Pacific Limited grew −7.9 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −4.6 %, EBIT margin −0.4 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.9 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Swire Pacific Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Swire Pacific Limited (SWRAF)?
The market capitalisation of Swire Pacific Limited is $40.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Swire Pacific Limited (SWRAF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Swire Pacific Limited is 1.34 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Swire Pacific Limited (SWRAF)?
Earnings per share at Swire Pacific Limited are $0.2700 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 41.1). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Swire Pacific Limited (SWRAF)?
The dividend yield of Swire Pacific Limited is 4.4% (payout 179%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Swire Pacific Limited (SWRAF)?
The net margin of Swire Pacific Limited is 3.2% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Swire Pacific Limited (SWRAF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Swire Pacific Limited is 1.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Swire Pacific Limited (SWRAF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Swire Pacific Limited is 3.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Swire Pacific Limited (SWRAF)?
The operating margin of Swire Pacific Limited is 11.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Swire Pacific Limited (SWRAF)?
Revenue at Swire Pacific Limited is growing +5.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −0.3%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Swire Pacific Limited (SWRAF)?
Earnings per share at Swire Pacific Limited are growing +17.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Swire Pacific Limited (SWRAF) carry?
The net debt of Swire Pacific Limited is HK$75.1B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 8.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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