Sygnia Ltd (SYG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Sygnia Ltd ZAR 4.84, price ZAR 32.50, upside -85.1%, quality 56 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R12.78 – R39.50 · fair‑value band R3.63 – R6.05 · the R32.50 price screens above the R4.84 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 4, 2026.
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Sygnia Limited, a financial services group, provides investment management and administration services to institutional and retail clients primarily in South Africa.
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Sygnia Limited, a financial services group, provides investment management and administration services to institutional and retail clients primarily in South Africa. It offers investment funds, such as unitised life funds, unit trusts, ETFs, and management of segregated portfolios; various savings products, including retirement annuities, tax-free savings accounts, investment policies, living annuities, and preservation funds; and institutional investment administration, employee benefits, and retirement fund services. Sygnia Limited was formerly known as Sygnia Investment Holdings No 2 Proprietary Limited and changed its name to Sygnia Limited in July 2015. The company was founded in 2003 and is headquartered in Cape Town, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Sygnia Ltd (SYG) currently trades at R32.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R4.84, 85.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 24 models at a data quality of 96/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Scenario range: R3.63 (bear) to R6.05 (bull), the price of R32.50 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Sygnia Ltd reported revenue of 1.1B ZAR in FY2025 versus 737M ZAR in FY2021, a compound +9.7%/yr. Reported net income was 382M ZAR in FY2025, compounding +12.3%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 5.1B ZAC · P/E ratio 12.0 · P/S ratio 4.31 · EPS (TTM) R2.70 · Dividend yield 7.8% · Net margin 35.8% · Return on equity 49.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −22% fair-value upside, at −85%, SYG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear R3.63Fair Value R4.84Bull R6.05
Price R32.50 · Upside -85.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.1500 ZAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
+12.8%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−38.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −9.0% a year
Revenue growth 11 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−9.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in ZAR ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in ZAR: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+19.2%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+11.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)7.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.11.4% vs 16.5%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 46%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 15.1%/yr over ~9Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+8.7%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (South Africa: IMF forecast 3.3% a year to 2030, 4.9% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.3% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Financial Conglomerates · 54 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−85.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)49.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets0.2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)35.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM)45.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth24.3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)7.8% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.03× · Lowest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Financial Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)12.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B5.78× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)4.33× · Pricier than median
P/FCF13.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA8.8× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 9
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 72
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)99· sector 84
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 60
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Sygnia Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SYG
Frequently asked questions
Is Sygnia Ltd (SYG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 4, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R4.84 versus a price of R32.50, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SYG?
Our model-based fair value for Sygnia Ltd is R4.84 (as of Oct 4, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R32.50.
What is the quality score of SYG?
Sygnia Ltd has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Sygnia Ltd (SYG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R4.84 (as of Oct 4, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario R3.63, optimistic scenario R6.05. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Sygnia Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R4.84, about −85% upside versus a price of R32.50 (overvalued). Cautious scenario R3.63, optimistic scenario R6.05. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Sygnia Ltd (SYG)?
Sygnia Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.2B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 4, 2026).
Does Sygnia Ltd pay a dividend?
Sygnia Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 7.85% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 4, 2026).
What growth is priced into Sygnia Ltd (SYG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Sygnia Ltd would have to grow free cash flow by +8.7 % per year for five years (discount rate 13.4 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -38.3 % per year. As of Oct 4, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SYG use?
Our models discount Sygnia Ltd at 13.4 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.34, country premium for South Africa. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Sygnia Ltd that is +8.7 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (13.4 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Sygnia Ltd (SYG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Sygnia Ltd grew -38.3 % a year. The price currently implies +8.7 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Sygnia Ltd (SYG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Sygnia Ltd (+8.7 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Sygnia Ltd (SYG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 7.56 %: that much free cash flow Sygnia Ltd produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (13.4 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Sygnia Ltd (SYG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Sygnia Ltd it is R4.84 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026), against a price of R32.50. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Sygnia Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 4, 2026, SYG trades above its calculated fair value: price R32.50, fair value R4.84, a gap of about −85% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SYG?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R32.50); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R4.84). For Sygnia Ltd the two are R27.66 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Sygnia Ltd worth?
The market values Sygnia Ltd at about 5.1B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Oct 4, 2026). Per share that is R32.50; our models calculate a fair value of R4.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SYG?
Our models span a range for Sygnia Ltd: cautious scenario R3.63, base R4.84, optimistic R6.05 per share (as of Oct 4, 2026, price R32.50). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SYG?
Sygnia Ltd trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 12.0 (as of Oct 4, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of R4.84 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 5.8, P/S 4.3, EV/EBITDA 8.8.
How solid is the balance sheet of Sygnia Ltd (SYG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Sygnia Ltd (as of Oct 4, 2026): return on equity 49.2%, debt of 0.03 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SYG from its 52-week high?
Sygnia Ltd trades at R32.50, about 18% below its 52-week high of R39.50 and 18% above the low of R27.50 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R4.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Sygnia Ltd?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value ORIX Corporation, Yuanta Financial Holding, Bajaj Finserv Ltd, China Galaxy Securities Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Sygnia Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 4, 2026: price R32.50, calculated fair value R4.84 (−85%), Quality Score 56/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SYG calculated?
We run Sygnia Ltd through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R4.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Sygnia Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Sygnia Ltd (SYG)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was R32.50. Our model-based fair value is R4.84, about −85% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Sygnia Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (R6.05). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Sygnia Ltd (SYG) come from?
Earnings per share at Sygnia Ltd grew +18.0 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −14.6 %, EBIT margin +36.5 %, tax rate +0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +1.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Sygnia Ltd
How large is the market capitalisation of Sygnia Ltd (SYG)?
The market capitalisation of Sygnia Ltd is 5.1B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Sygnia Ltd (SYG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Sygnia Ltd is 4.31 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Sygnia Ltd (SYG)?
Earnings per share at Sygnia Ltd are R2.70 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 12.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Sygnia Ltd (SYG)?
The dividend yield of Sygnia Ltd is 7.8% (payout 94.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Sygnia Ltd (SYG)?
The net margin of Sygnia Ltd is 35.8% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Sygnia Ltd (SYG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Sygnia Ltd is 49.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Sygnia Ltd (SYG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Sygnia Ltd is 0.3% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Sygnia Ltd (SYG)?
The operating margin of Sygnia Ltd is 45.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Sygnia Ltd (SYG)?
Revenue at Sygnia Ltd is growing +24.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +9.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Sygnia Ltd (SYG)?
Earnings per share at Sygnia Ltd are growing +21.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Sygnia Ltd (SYG) hold?
Sygnia Ltd holds more cash than debt, 37.7M ZAC net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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