System1 Group PLC (SYS1) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 24, 2026: fair value of System1 Group PLC £2.28, price £3.60, upside -36.7%, quality 58 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range £1.06 – £7.68 · fair‑value band £1.71 – £2.85 · the £3.60 price screens above the £2.28 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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System1 Group PLC, together with its subsidiaries, provides market research data and insight services in the United Kingdom, the United States, Latin America, rest of Europe, and the Asia Pacific.
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System1 Group PLC, together with its subsidiaries, provides market research data and insight services in the United Kingdom, the United States, Latin America, rest of Europe, and the Asia Pacific. It offers various tools comprising test your ad, a testing platform that covers all media types from early-stage scripts to finished films, to ensure fast, predictive, actionable products; test your innovation, that measures the emotional response of people to predict potential in success of each idea; and test your brand, a predictive measures that helps to understand brand health, predict future performance, and improve and inform brand strategy. It also serves advertisers. The company was formerly known as Brainjuicer Group Plc and changed its name to System1 Group PLC in March 2017. System1 Group PLC was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in London, the United Kingdom.
Stock analysis
System1 Group PLC (SYS1) currently trades at £3.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is £2.28, implying the stock looks roughly 57.9% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of £2.94 per share, and 3 of the 26 models we run sit above the £3.60 price.
Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at £0.6200, and 23 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: £1.71 (bear) to £2.85 (bull), the price of £3.60 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
System1 Group PLC reported revenue of 37.0M GBX in FY2026 versus 24.1M GBX in FY2022, a compound +11.3%/yr. Reported net income was 1.3M GBX in FY2026, compounding +8.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap 45.8M GBX · P/E ratio 36.0 · P/S ratio 1.28 · EPS (TTM) £0.1000 · Dividend yield 1.7% · Net margin 3.6% · Return on equity 9.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 51 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades at its 52-week high and 85% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 20% fair-value upside, at −37%, SYS1 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear £1.71Fair Value £2.28Bull £2.85
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 6 months old). Earnings retained since then (£0.0195 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.70/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +1.7% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+16.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: EBIT basis.
+22.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+21.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.7%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.0% vs −10%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.14% → 7%
Start year 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (UK: IMF forecast 2.3% a year to 2030, 3.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.9% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Advertising Agencies · 197 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score58 · Above median
Fair Value upside−31% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)9% · Above median
Return on assets6% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM)4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)15% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth69% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM)1.7% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.17× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Advertising Agencies median · lower = cheaper
P/E (TTM)36.0× · Pricier than median
P/B3.85× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)1.50× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF29.2× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA20.9× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.20× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 34
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 11
PAST (return on equity)37· sector 9
HEALTH (low debt)91· sector 98
DIVIDEND (yield)33· sector 59
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "System1 Group PLC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/SYS1
Frequently asked questions
Is System1 Group PLC (SYS1) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of £2.28 versus a price of £3.60, about −37% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of SYS1?
Our model-based fair value for System1 Group PLC is £2.28 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: £3.60.
What is the quality score of SYS1?
System1 Group PLC has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for System1 Group PLC (SYS1)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of £2.28 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario £1.71, optimistic scenario £2.85. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the System1 Group PLC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at £2.28, about −37% upside versus a price of £3.60 (overvalued). Cautious scenario £1.71, optimistic scenario £2.85. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of System1 Group PLC (SYS1)?
System1 Group PLC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about £37.0M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does System1 Group PLC pay a dividend?
System1 Group PLC currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.67% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What growth is priced into System1 Group PLC (SYS1)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, System1 Group PLC would have to grow free cash flow by +13.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.8 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +10.1 % per year. As of Sep 24, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of SYS1 use?
Our models discount System1 Group PLC at 11.8 %: a base by market capitalisation (micro), damped by beta 0.16, country premium for United Kingdom. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For System1 Group PLC that is +13.4 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.8 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has System1 Group PLC (SYS1) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at System1 Group PLC grew +10.1 % a year. The price currently implies +13.4 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of System1 Group PLC (SYS1) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into System1 Group PLC (+13.4 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of System1 Group PLC (SYS1)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.14 %: that much free cash flow System1 Group PLC produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.8 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of System1 Group PLC (SYS1)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For System1 Group PLC it is £2.28 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of £3.60. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is System1 Group PLC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, SYS1 trades above its calculated fair value: price £3.60, fair value £2.28, a gap of about −37% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of SYS1?
No. The price is what the market pays today (£3.60); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (£2.28). For System1 Group PLC the two are £1.32 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is System1 Group PLC worth?
The market values System1 Group PLC at about 45.8M GBX (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is £3.60; our models calculate a fair value of £2.28 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about SYS1?
Our models span a range for System1 Group PLC: cautious scenario £1.71, base £2.28, optimistic £2.85 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price £3.60). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of SYS1?
System1 Group PLC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 36.0 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of £2.28 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.2, P/B 3.9, P/S 1.5, EV/EBITDA 20.9.
What is the PEG ratio of SYS1?
The PEG ratio of System1 Group PLC is 1.20 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 24, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of System1 Group PLC (SYS1)?
Balance-sheet figures for System1 Group PLC (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 9.2%, debt of 0.17 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 58/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is SYS1 from its 52-week high?
System1 Group PLC trades at £3.60, at its 52-week high of £3.60 and 85% above the low of £1.95 (as of Sep 24, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of £2.28 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to System1 Group PLC?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value AppLovin Corporation, Publicis Groupe S.A, Omnicom Group, Focus Media Information Technology Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is System1 Group PLC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price £3.60, calculated fair value £2.28 (−37%), Quality Score 58/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of SYS1 calculated?
We run System1 Group PLC through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of £2.28, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. System1 Group PLC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of System1 Group PLC (SYS1)?
The closing price on Sep 24, 2026 was £3.60. Our model-based fair value is £2.28, about −37% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with System1 Group PLC right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (£2.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of System1 Group PLC (SYS1) come from?
Earnings per share at System1 Group PLC grew −3.1 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +2.4 %, EBIT margin −6.5 %, tax rate +1.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of System1 Group PLC
How large is the market capitalisation of System1 Group PLC (SYS1)?
The market capitalisation of System1 Group PLC is 45.8M GBX. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of System1 Group PLC (SYS1)?
The price-to-sales ratio of System1 Group PLC is 1.28 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of System1 Group PLC (SYS1)?
Earnings per share at System1 Group PLC are £0.1000 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 36.0). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of System1 Group PLC (SYS1)?
The dividend yield of System1 Group PLC is 1.7% (payout 60.0%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of System1 Group PLC (SYS1)?
The net margin of System1 Group PLC is 3.6% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of System1 Group PLC (SYS1)?
The return on equity (ROE) of System1 Group PLC is 9.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of System1 Group PLC (SYS1)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of System1 Group PLC is 11.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of System1 Group PLC (SYS1)?
The operating margin of System1 Group PLC is 15.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at System1 Group PLC (SYS1)?
Revenue at System1 Group PLC is growing +68.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +16.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at System1 Group PLC (SYS1)?
Earnings per share at System1 Group PLC are growing +27.3% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does System1 Group PLC (SYS1) hold?
System1 Group PLC holds more cash than debt, 11.4M GBX net (fiscal year 2026). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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