TOC Co (T3O) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 26, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of TOC Co stock €4.44, price €5.59, upside -20.6%, quality 72 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value above price?No
Good quality?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €3.56 – €6.20 · fair‑value band €3.91 – €5.47 · the €5.59 price screens above the €4.44 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 27, 2026.
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TOC Co., Ltd. engages in the real estate business in Japan. It operates through the Real Estate Business and the Linen Supply and Laundry Business segments.
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The company is involved in the ownership, rental, management, and operation of rental rooms, exhibition spaces, and parking lots; brokerage activities; linen supply for hotels, restaurants, banquets, and sports clubs; and provision of laundry services.
It also engages in the pharmaceutical, sports club and hot bath facility businesses; building management; information processing related activities; and planning, development, and operation of commercial facilities. The company was founded in 1926 and is headquartered in Shinagawa, Japan.
Stock analysis
TOC Co (T3O) currently trades at €5.59, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €4.44, 20.6% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €5.49 per share, and 2 of the 16 models we run sit above the €5.59 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at €0.5000, and 14 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €3.91 (bear) to €5.47 (bull), the price of €5.59 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Real Estate sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
TOC Co reported revenue of ¥15.2B in FY2026 versus ¥16.3B in FY2022, a compound −1.9%/yr. Reported net income was ¥2.3B in FY2026, compounding −7.0%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap €493M Small · P/E ratio 37.3 · P/S ratio 5.71 · EPS (TTM) €0.1500 · Dividend yield 1.0% · Net margin 15.3% · Return on equity 2.8% · Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 53 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 3% below its 52-week high and 39% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Real Estate peers we cover trades at −12% fair-value upside, at −21%, T3O screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€3.91Fair Value €4.44Bull€5.47
Price €5.59 · Upside -20.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then (€0.0536 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is weak: less than 2 % a year.
Revenue growth 1 year
+15.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.1%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−1.2%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −3.4% a year
Revenue growth 12 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−2.6%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−8.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−9.5%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−9.5% vs −3.3%, slowing
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.35% → 16%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.7%/yr over ~7Y (margins eroding too) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+6.2%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.1% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Real Estate Services · 529 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score72 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−20.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)2.8% · Below median
Return on assets1.9% · Below median
Net margin (12 months)17.8% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)24.9% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)16.7% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.0% · Bottom 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Real Estate Services median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "TOC Co Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/T3O
Frequently asked questions
Is TOC Co (T3O) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 27, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €4.44 versus a price of €5.59, about −21% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of T3O?
Our model-based fair value for TOC Co is €4.44 (as of Oct 27, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €5.59.
What is the quality score of T3O?
TOC Co has a Quality Score of 72/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TOC Co (T3O)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €4.44 (as of Oct 27, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario €3.91, optimistic scenario €5.47. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TOC Co stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €4.44, about −21% upside versus a price of €5.59 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €3.91, optimistic scenario €5.47. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TOC Co (T3O)?
TOC Co reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥15.7B (latest available figure, as of Oct 27, 2026).
Does TOC Co pay a dividend?
TOC Co currently shows a dividend yield of 1.02% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 27, 2026).
What growth is priced into TOC Co (T3O)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, TOC Co would have to grow free cash flow by +6.2 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -1.2 % per year. As of Oct 27, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of T3O use?
Our models discount TOC Co at 9.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.37, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For TOC Co that is +6.2 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has TOC Co (T3O) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at TOC Co grew -1.2 % a year. The price currently implies +6.2 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of TOC Co (T3O) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.3 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into TOC Co (+6.2 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of TOC Co (T3O)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 3.86 %: that much free cash flow TOC Co produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of TOC Co (T3O)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TOC Co it is €4.44 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026), against a price of €5.59. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TOC Co stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 27, 2026, T3O trades above its calculated fair value: price €5.59, fair value €4.44, a gap of about −21% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of T3O?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€5.59); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€4.44). For TOC Co the two are €1.15 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TOC Co worth?
The market values TOC Co at about €493M (market capitalisation, as of Oct 27, 2026). Per share that is €5.59; our models calculate a fair value of €4.44 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about T3O?
Our models span a range for TOC Co: cautious scenario €3.91, base €4.44, optimistic €5.47 per share (as of Oct 27, 2026, price €5.59). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of T3O?
TOC Co trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 37.3 (as of Oct 27, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €4.44 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 5.1, EV/EBITDA 11.3.
How solid is the balance sheet of TOC Co (T3O)?
Balance-sheet figures for TOC Co (as of Oct 27, 2026): return on equity 2.8%. They feed the Quality Score of 72/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is T3O from its 52-week high?
TOC Co trades at €5.59, about 3% below its 52-week high of €5.77 and 39% above the low of €4.01 (as of Oct 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €4.44 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TOC Co?
From the same area (Real Estate) we also value CBRE Group, Cellnex Telecom, S.A, KE Holdings, Swire Properties Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TOC Co stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 27, 2026: price €5.59, calculated fair value €4.44 (−21%), Quality Score 72/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of T3O calculated?
We run TOC Co through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €4.44, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 12.7 % above its aggregate fair value. TOC Co itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TOC Co (T3O)?
The closing price on Oct 26, 2026 was €5.59. Our model-based fair value is €4.44, about −21% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TOC Co right now?
A high-quality business (quality 72/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€5.47). The favourable scenario is already priced in. As a real-estate business, asset- and dividend-based methods carry more weight here than a standard DCF.
Key figures of TOC Co
How large is the market capitalisation of TOC Co (T3O)?
The market capitalisation of TOC Co is €493M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TOC Co (T3O)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TOC Co is 5.71 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TOC Co (T3O)?
Earnings per share at TOC Co are €0.1500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 37.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of TOC Co (T3O)?
The dividend yield of TOC Co is 1.0% (payout 37.9%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of TOC Co (T3O)?
The net margin of TOC Co is 15.3% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of TOC Co (T3O)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TOC Co is 2.8% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TOC Co (T3O)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TOC Co is 2.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TOC Co (T3O)?
The operating margin of TOC Co is 24.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TOC Co (T3O)?
Revenue at TOC Co is growing +16.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg −1.1%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at TOC Co (T3O)?
Earnings per share at TOC Co are growing +115% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
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Broad data
Oct 27, 2026