TAG Oil Ltd. (TAO) fair value: what the stock is really worth
We calculate from audited financials what TAG Oil Ltd. is really worth. The fair value tells you whether the price is too high or too low, the quality score (0 to 100) how solid the business behind it is. 26 models, 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Valuation from Aug 13, 2026. With the latest figures (losses, negative cash flow), a fair value can no longer be calculated.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.0700 – C$0.7600 · the C$0.0875 price screens above the C$0.0213 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
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TAG Oil Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas in Canada, the Middle East, and North Africa. The company holds interest in the Badr Oil Field, a 26,000-acre concession located in the Western Desert, Egypt. The company was formerly known as Durum Cons. Energy Corp.
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TAG Oil Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas in Canada, the Middle East, and North Africa. The company holds interest in the Badr Oil Field, a 26,000-acre concession located in the Western Desert, Egypt. The company was formerly known as Durum Cons. Energy Corp. and changed its name to TAG Oil Ltd. in June 2002. TAG Oil Ltd. was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Stock analysis
TAG Oil Ltd. (TAO) currently trades at C$0.0875, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$0.0213, implying the stock looks roughly 310.8% overvalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 1 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at low.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
TAG Oil Ltd. reported revenue of C$1.4M in FY2026 versus −C$76.8K in FY2021. Reported net income was −C$4.8M in FY2026.
Key figures
Market cap C$34.2M (≈ $24.2M) · P/S ratio 25.4 · EPS (TTM) C$−0.0100 · Return on equity −8.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) −17.7% · Operating margin −197% · Revenue (TTM) C$1.3M · Revenue growth (YoY) −6.3%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 32 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at −76%, TAO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear C$0.0213Fair Value C$0.0213Bull C$0.0213
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.26/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+60.6%
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−26.9%
’17
’18
’19
’20
’25
’26
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
9.6% (2020) → −477.1% (2026)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2026 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Oil & Gas E&P · 307 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/7 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score34 · Below median
Fair Value upside−76% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−6% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−197% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth−6% · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of C$0.0213 versus a price of C$0.0875, about −76% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TAO?
Our model-based fair value for TAG Oil Ltd. is C$0.0213 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: C$0.0875.
What is the quality score of TAO?
TAG Oil Ltd. has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for TAG Oil Ltd. (TAO)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of C$0.0213 (as of Aug 13, 2026) from 1 valuation models. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the TAG Oil Ltd. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at C$0.0213, about −76% upside versus a price of C$0.0875 (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of TAG Oil Ltd. (TAO)?
TAG Oil Ltd. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about C$1.3M (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of TAG Oil Ltd. (TAO)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For TAG Oil Ltd. it is C$0.0213 per share (as of Aug 13, 2026), against a price of C$0.0875. It is the blended result of 1 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is TAG Oil Ltd. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Aug 13, 2026, TAO trades above its calculated fair value: price C$0.0875, fair value C$0.0213, a gap of about −76% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TAO?
No. The price is what the market pays today (C$0.0875); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (C$0.0213). For TAG Oil Ltd. the two are C$0.0662 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is TAG Oil Ltd. worth?
The market values TAG Oil Ltd. at about C$34.2M (market capitalisation, as of Aug 13, 2026). Per share that is C$0.0875; our models calculate a fair value of C$0.0213 per share.
How solid is the balance sheet of TAG Oil Ltd. (TAO)?
Balance-sheet figures for TAG Oil Ltd. (as of Aug 13, 2026): return on equity −8.7%. They feed the Quality Score of 29/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TAO from its 52-week high?
TAG Oil Ltd. trades at C$0.0875, about 33% below its 52-week high of C$0.1300 and 25% above the low of C$0.0700 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of C$0.0213 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to TAG Oil Ltd.?
From the same area (Energy) we also value CNOOC Limited, ConocoPhillips explores for,, Canadian Natural Resources Limited, EOG Resources, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is TAG Oil Ltd. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Aug 13, 2026: price C$0.0875, calculated fair value C$0.0213 (−76%), Quality Score 29/100, from 1 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TAO calculated?
We run TAG Oil Ltd. through 1 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of C$0.0213, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. TAG Oil Ltd. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of TAG Oil Ltd. (TAO)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was C$0.0875. Our model-based fair value is C$0.0213, about −76% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with TAG Oil Ltd. right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$0.0213). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of TAG Oil Ltd.
How large is the market capitalisation of TAG Oil Ltd. (TAO)?
The market capitalisation of TAG Oil Ltd. is C$34.2M (≈ $24.2M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of TAG Oil Ltd. (TAO)?
The price-to-sales ratio of TAG Oil Ltd. is 25.4 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of TAG Oil Ltd. (TAO)?
Earnings per share at TAG Oil Ltd. are C$−0.0100. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the return on equity of TAG Oil Ltd. (TAO)?
The return on equity (ROE) of TAG Oil Ltd. is −8.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of TAG Oil Ltd. (TAO)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of TAG Oil Ltd. is −17.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of TAG Oil Ltd. (TAO)?
The operating margin of TAG Oil Ltd. is −197% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at TAG Oil Ltd. (TAO)?
Revenue at TAG Oil Ltd. is growing −6.3% versus a year earlier. How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does TAG Oil Ltd. (TAO) generate?
The free cash flow of TAG Oil Ltd. is −C$9.4M (fiscal year 2026). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
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