TAG Oil Ltd (TAO) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · CA · Market cap C$25.7M
Fair value as of: Jul 31, 2026
From 1 valuation models · updated 10 days ago
Share price −5.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 68% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$0.0223). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (12/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$0.0700 – C$0.7600 · the C$0.0800 price screens above the C$0.0255 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 31, 2026.
Analysis
TAG Oil Ltd (TAO) currently trades at C$0.0800, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$0.0255, implying the stock looks roughly 68.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 12/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).
Trailing-twelve-month revenue stands at C$1.4M. Revenue declined 5.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -7.0%. Fundamentals as of Jul 31, 2026
The share trades about 53% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -26% fair-value upside, at -68%, TAO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 1 models by family
Notify me when TAO reaches fair value
Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 19 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 24
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
TAG Oil Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas in Canada, the Middle East, and North Africa. The company holds interest in the Badr Oil Field, a 26,000-acre concession located in the Western Desert, Egypt. The company was formerly known as Durum Cons. Energy Corp.
Full company description
TAG Oil Ltd., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil and gas in Canada, the Middle East, and North Africa. The company holds interest in the Badr Oil Field, a 26,000-acre concession located in the Western Desert, Egypt. The company was formerly known as Durum Cons. Energy Corp. and changed its name to TAG Oil Ltd. in June 2002. TAG Oil Ltd. was incorporated in 1990 and is headquartered in Vancouver, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2020 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
TAG Oil Ltd reported revenue of C$864K in FY2025 versus C$16.4M in FY2020, a compound −44.5%/yr. Reported net income was −C$6.3M in FY2025.
TAO screens 68% overvalued. Compare with CNOOC Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas E&P · 315 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas E&P median · lower = cheaper
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas E&P stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| CNOOC Limited 600938 | ¥28.97 | ¥32.55 | +12% |
| ConocoPhillips explores for, COP | $109.04 | $91.79 | -16% |
| Canadian Natural Resources Limited CNQ | $42.86 | $31.54 | -26% |
| EOG Resources, Inc EOG | $139.89 | $130.19 | -7% |
| Occidental Petroleum Corporation OXY | $54.86 | $30.68 | -44% |
| Diamondback Energy, Inc FANG | $183.39 | $106.12 | -42% |
| Devon Energy Corporation DVN | $43.83 | $27.06 | -38% |
| Woodside Energy Group WDS | A$30.46 | A$20.71 | -32% |
| EQT Corporation EQT | $48.85 | $42.85 | -12% |
| Texas Pacific Land Corporation TPL | $415.70 | $79.20 | -81% |
Compare TAG Oil Ltd with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Energy stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is TAG Oil Ltd (TAO) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of TAO?
What is the quality score of TAO?
What is the revenue of TAG Oil Ltd (TAO)?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track TAG Oil Ltd and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.