The National Shipping Co. (4030) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 28, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of The National Shipping Co. stock SAR 39.45, price SAR 35.98, upside +9.6%, quality 38 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Fair value 30%+ above price?No
Quality 50+?No
In an uptrend?Yes
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Oct 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 8.97 SAR – 37.30 SAR · fair‑value band 27.62 SAR – 51.29 SAR · the 35.98 SAR price screens below the 39.45 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Oct 28, 2026.
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The National Shipping Company of Saudi Arabia, together with its subsidiaries, purchases, sells, and operates vessels for the transportation of cargo in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
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It operates in four segments: Transportation of Oil; Transportation of Chemicals; Logistics; and Transportation of Dry Bulk. The company transports crude oil and petrochemical products; and provides technical ship management and logistics services.
It also engages in agency activities for maritime shipping companies; cargo clearance; operating vessels for coordination for transport and storage on-board vessels; and other marine transport activities.
As of December 31, 2025, its fleet consisted of 104 owned vessels and 9 vessels under lease contract, including 50 very large crude-oil carriers; 34 tankers in the spot market and 8 tankers under charter agreements for the chemical transportation sector; 6 RoCon vessels for the logistics sector; and 13 vessels for the dry bulk transportation sector.
National Shipping Company of Saudi Arabia was founded in 1978 and is headquartered in Riyadh, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
The National Shipping Co. (4030) currently trades at 35.98 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 39.45 SAR, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.8%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 46.41 SAR per share, and 5 of the 16 models we run sit above the 35.98 SAR price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 10.91 SAR, and 11 of the 16 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 27.62 SAR (bear) to 51.29 SAR (bull), the price of 35.98 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 38/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
The National Shipping Co. reported revenue of 10.3B SAR in FY2025 versus 5.4B SAR in FY2021, a compound +17.9%/yr. Reported net income was 2.4B SAR in FY2025, compounding +88.5%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
Key figures
Market cap 33.2B SAR (≈ $8.9B) Mid · P/E ratio 5.2 · P/S ratio 1.96 · EPS (TTM) 6.93 SAR · Dividend yield 2.8% · Net margin 37.6% · Return on equity 38.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.0%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 83 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 58% fair-value upside, at 10%, 4030 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear27.62 SARFair Value 39.45 SARBull51.29 SAR
Price 35.98 SAR · Upside +9.6%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (4.91 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV11.14 SAR14.73 SAR17.87 SAR74
Residual Income17.36 SAR22.93 SAR36.56 SAR74
ROIC Compounder11.14 SAR14.73 SAR19.79 SAR71
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd17.92 SAR75.38 SAR102.85 SAR64
Lynch FV19.14 SAR27.35 SAR35.55 SAR61
PEG = 1.019.14 SAR27.35 SAR35.55 SAR57
EPV11.14 SAR14.73 SAR17.87 SAR74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM7.35 SAR15.29 SAR24.26 SAR66
DDM Multi-Stage7.35 SAR12.89 SAR16.04 SAR66
Multiples
P/E Multiple41.49 SAR55.33 SAR69.16 SAR63
P/S Multiple16.82 SAR22.42 SAR28.03 SAR58
P/B Multiple54.95 SAR73.27 SAR91.59 SAR55
EV/EBIT19.55 SAR30.22 SAR40.89 SAR65
EV/EBITDA32.53 SAR47.53 SAR62.52 SAR67
EV/Revenue1.67 SAR7.72 SAR13.78 SAR48
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)8.14 SAR10.91 SAR16.28 SAR54
Economic Profit
Residual Income17.36 SAR22.93 SAR36.56 SAR74
ROIC Compounder11.14 SAR14.73 SAR19.79 SAR71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E32.49 SAR46.41 SAR60.34 SAR67
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.39/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+9.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +3.3% a year
Revenue growth 19 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.1%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
≈ +28.5%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year≈ +25.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.base effect: 25.7% / 1.0%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.22% → 22%
⚠ Base effect: the rate starts in the earnings trough around 2020 (starting value 0.84 per share, median 1.73 in 2015 to 2018). It measures the recovery from the trough, not lasting growth.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Marine Shipping · 227 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/13 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score38 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside+9.6% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)38.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets7.9% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)37.6% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)43.7% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)156.2% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)2.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.70× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Marine Shipping median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The National Shipping Co. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4030
Frequently asked questions
Is The National Shipping Co. (4030) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 28, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 39.45 SAR versus a price of 35.98 SAR, about +10% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 4030?
Our model-based fair value for The National Shipping Co. is 39.45 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 35.98 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4030?
The National Shipping Co. has a Quality Score of 38/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for The National Shipping Co. (4030)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 39.45 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026) from 16 valuation models. Cautious scenario 27.62 SAR, optimistic scenario 51.29 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the The National Shipping Co. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 39.45 SAR, about +10% upside versus a price of 35.98 SAR (fairly valued). Cautious scenario 27.62 SAR, optimistic scenario 51.29 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of The National Shipping Co. (4030)?
The National Shipping Co. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 17.0B SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 28, 2026).
Does The National Shipping Co. pay a dividend?
The National Shipping Co. currently shows a dividend yield of 2.78% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 28, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of The National Shipping Co. (4030)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For The National Shipping Co. it is 39.45 SAR per share (as of Oct 28, 2026), against a price of 35.98 SAR. It is the blended result of 16 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is The National Shipping Co. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 28, 2026, 4030 trades below its calculated fair value: price 35.98 SAR, fair value 39.45 SAR, a gap of about +10% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4030?
No. The price is what the market pays today (35.98 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (39.45 SAR). For The National Shipping Co. the two are 3.47 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is The National Shipping Co. worth?
The market values The National Shipping Co. at about 33.2B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 28, 2026). Per share that is 35.98 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 39.45 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4030?
Our models span a range for The National Shipping Co.: cautious scenario 27.62 SAR, base 39.45 SAR, optimistic 51.29 SAR per share (as of Oct 28, 2026, price 35.98 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4030?
The National Shipping Co. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 5.2 (as of Oct 28, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 39.45 SAR is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 2.2, P/S 2.0, EV/EBITDA 5.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of The National Shipping Co. (4030)?
Balance-sheet figures for The National Shipping Co. (as of Oct 28, 2026): return on equity 38.2%, debt of 0.70 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 38/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4030 from its 52-week high?
The National Shipping Co. trades at 35.98 SAR, about 4% below its 52-week high of 37.30 SAR and 53% above the low of 23.58 SAR (as of Oct 28, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 39.45 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to The National Shipping Co.?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Limited, COSCO SHIPPING Holdings, Hapag-Lloyd Aktiengesellschaft,, Shanghai International Port (Group) Co, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is The National Shipping Co. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 28, 2026: price 35.98 SAR, calculated fair value 39.45 SAR (+10%), Quality Score 38/100, from 16 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4030 calculated?
We run The National Shipping Co. through 16 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 39.45 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.4 % above its aggregate fair value. The National Shipping Co. currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of The National Shipping Co. (4030)?
The closing price on Oct 28, 2026 was 35.98 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 39.45 SAR, about +10% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with The National Shipping Co. right now?
The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension. A fairly wide model range (27.62 SAR to 51.29 SAR) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of The National Shipping Co. (4030) come from?
Earnings per share at The National Shipping Co. grew +3.2 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.8 %, EBIT margin +0.1 %, tax rate −0.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of The National Shipping Co.
How large is the market capitalisation of The National Shipping Co. (4030)?
The market capitalisation of The National Shipping Co. is 33.2B SAR (≈ $8.9B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of The National Shipping Co. (4030)?
The price-to-sales ratio of The National Shipping Co. is 1.96 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of The National Shipping Co. (4030)?
Earnings per share at The National Shipping Co. are 6.93 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 5.2). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of The National Shipping Co. (4030)?
The dividend yield of The National Shipping Co. is 2.8% (payout 14.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of The National Shipping Co. (4030)?
The net margin of The National Shipping Co. is 37.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of The National Shipping Co. (4030)?
The return on equity (ROE) of The National Shipping Co. is 38.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of The National Shipping Co. (4030)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of The National Shipping Co. is 7.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of The National Shipping Co. (4030)?
The operating margin of The National Shipping Co. is 43.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at The National Shipping Co. (4030)?
Revenue at The National Shipping Co. is growing +156% versus a year earlier (3y avg +6.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at The National Shipping Co. (4030)?
Earnings per share at The National Shipping Co. are growing +574% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does The National Shipping Co. (4030) generate?
The free cash flow of The National Shipping Co. is −714M SAR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does The National Shipping Co. (4030) carry?
The net debt of The National Shipping Co. is 11.5B SAR (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Oct 28, 2026