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Thu Dau Mot Water Joint Stock Company (TDM) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · VN · Market cap 6.7T VND

TD Thu Dau Mot Water Joint Stock Company TDM · VN
Price62,000 VND
Fair Value16,724 VND
Upside-73.0%
Quality44/100
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Expensive Growth
Highly profitable · 38.9% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
2.23% dividend yield
Trails peers (5/14)
Moderate moat 63/100
Evidence: High Range 11,330 VND – 22,118 VND Share as image

Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026

From 22 valuation models · updated 24 days ago

Share price +4.6% over the past month.

Below-average quality, and screening another 73% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (22,118 VND). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • A fairly wide model range (11,330 VND to 22,118 VND) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

62,000 VND 20,789 VND Fair Value 16,724 VND Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 20,789 VND – 62,000 VND · fair‑value band 11,330 VND – 22,118 VND · the 62,000 VND price screens above the 16,724 VND fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.

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Analysis

Thu Dau Mot Water Joint Stock Company (TDM) currently trades at 62,000 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 16,724 VND, implying the stock looks roughly 73.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).

Over the trailing twelve months, Thu Dau Mot Water Joint Stock Company generated revenue of 484B VND at a net margin of 38.9%. Revenue declined 21.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.3%. Net debt stands at 539B VND. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 11,330 VND (bear case) to 22,118 VND (bull case); at 62,000 VND, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -10% fair-value upside, at -73%, TDM screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely (2,359 VND to 34,004 VND). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income 19,911 VND 21,549 VND 25,946 VND 76
Rev-Margin DCF 1,308 VND 4,799 VND 8,543 VND 74
ROIC Compounder 6,755 VND 8,595 VND 10,232 VND 72
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings 14,644 VND 22,419 VND 34,825 VND 31
5Y Revenue Exit 1,308 VND 4,842 VND 9,430 VND 39
5Y EBITDA Exit 5,585 VND 12,266 VND 20,075 VND 41
5Y P/E Exit 10,803 VND 21,324 VND 32,251 VND 38
10Y Revenue Exit 2,359 VND 5,951 VND 36
10Y EBITDA Exit 2,393 VND 7,429 VND 13,582 VND 37
10Y P/E Exit 5,697 VND 13,615 VND 22,309 VND 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 12,846 VND 25,454 VND 31,927 VND 54
EPV 6,755 VND 8,595 VND 10,232 VND 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 13,333 VND 19,331 VND 25,749 VND 70
DDM Multi-Stage 13,333 VND 19,057 VND 26,007 VND 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple 25,503 VND 34,004 VND 42,505 VND 63
P/S Multiple 8,542 VND 11,389 VND 14,236 VND 58
P/B Multiple 24,086 VND 32,115 VND 40,144 VND 55
EV/EBIT 9,362 VND 13,708 VND 18,054 VND 53
EV/EBITDA 12,507 VND 17,901 VND 23,295 VND 54
EV/Revenue 4,297 VND 7,713 VND 11,130 VND 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 11,633 VND 15,588 VND 23,266 VND 50
Growth DCF
Rev-Margin DCF 1,308 VND 4,799 VND 8,543 VND 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 19,911 VND 21,549 VND 25,946 VND 76
ROIC Compounder 6,755 VND 8,595 VND 10,232 VND 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 18,589 VND 26,556 VND 34,523 VND 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (26,556 VND) versus Growth DCF (4,799 VND). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 484B VND
Revenue growth (YoY) -21.7%
Net margin 38.9%
Return on equity 7.3%
Free cash flow 5.8B VND FY2025
P/E ratio 39.3
More key figures
Operating margin 37.9%
EPS (TTM) 1,527 VND
Dividend yield 2.2%
EPS growth (YoY) -15.8%
Net debt 539B VND FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66

Profitability 39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 20
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 31
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 69
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 89
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 50
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 66
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 63
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Thu Dau Mot Water Joint Stock Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in producing and supplying treated water in Vietnam.

Full company description

Thu Dau Mot Water Joint Stock Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in producing and supplying treated water in Vietnam. It is also involved in the investment, exploitation, treatment, and supply of clean water for daily life and production; investment and management of drainage systems; construction and repair of water supply and drainage systems; purchase and sale of water supplies, other installation materials, and equipment in construction; construction of houses, medium and low voltage lines, substations, public lighting systems, medium and low voltage lines, substations, and public lighting systems; installation of other construction systems; and other specialized construction activities. In addition, the company provides architectural design, civil, and industrial structures services; design of water supply and drainage, electricity for civil and industrial works, and small and medium-sized irrigation works; supervision of the construction and completion of civil, industrial, and technical infrastructure works; estimation of cost estimates and work construction investment projects; environmental consulting services; and water quality and environmental analysis and assessment services. Thu Dau Mot Water Joint Stock Company was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Thu Dau Mot, Vietnam.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Thu Dau Mot Water Joint Stock Company reported revenue of 506B VND in FY2025 versus 417B VND in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was 210B VND in FY2025, compounding −10.6%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 43/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
506B VND
Latest YoY
−7.0%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.9%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.6%
Revenue +5.0%/yr
FY21 417B VND
FY22 479B VND
FY23 533B VND
FY24 544B VND
FY25 506B VND
Net income −10.6%/yr
FY21 329B VND
FY22 220B VND
FY23 283B VND
FY24 204B VND
FY25 210B VND

TDM screens 73% overvalued. Compare with American Water Works Company →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Thu Dau Mot Water Joint Stock Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TDM

Peer Group

Utilities - Regulated Water · 67 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 44 · Below median
Fair Value upside −73% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 39% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 38% · Top 25%
Revenue growth -22% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.2% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.21× · Lower than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 39.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 2.58× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 13.76× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 33.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 1
FUTURE 0 · sector 28
PAST 29 · sector 29
HEALTH 89 · sector 66
DIVIDEND 45 · sector 48

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
American Water Works Company AWK $134.33 $65.80 -51%
SBSP3 SBSP3 R$29.22 R$31.23 +7%
SBS SBS $5.79 $5.21 -10%
Essential Utilities, Inc WTRG $38.59 $21.81 -43%
CSMG3 CSMG3 R$66.10 R$60.17 -9%
Grandblue Environment Co 600323 ¥29.42 ¥33.29 +13%
American States Water Company AWR $85.01 $48.02 -44%
Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co 000598 ¥6.97 ¥10.74 +54%
California Water Service Group CWT $49.73 $33.56 -33%
Chongqing Water Group 601158 ¥4.12 ¥2.77 -33%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Thu Dau Mot Water Joint Stock Company (TDM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Jul 18, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 16,724 VND versus a price of 62,000 VND, about −73% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TDM?
Our model-based fair value for Thu Dau Mot Water Joint Stock Company is 16,724 VND (as of Jul 18, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 62,000 VND.
What is the quality score of TDM?
Thu Dau Mot Water Joint Stock Company has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Thu Dau Mot Water Joint Stock Company (TDM)?
Thu Dau Mot Water Joint Stock Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 484B VND (latest available figure, as of Jul 18, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of TDM?
The net profit margin of Thu Dau Mot Water Joint Stock Company is about 38.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 38.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Thu Dau Mot Water Joint Stock Company pay a dividend?
Thu Dau Mot Water Joint Stock Company currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.24% relative to its recent price (as of Jul 18, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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