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Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC VND 10,340, price VND 59,000, upside -82.5%, quality 44 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Utilities · VN · ISIN VN000000TDM3

TD Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Thu Dau Mot Water JSC

TDM · VN

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value 10,340 VND · Strongly overvalued (−82%)
!Quality 44/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +5.6 %/yr)
✓Highly profitable · 38.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
·2.20% dividend yield
!Trails peers (4/14)
!Moderate moat 63/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 29 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

62,000 VND 20,789 VND Fair Value 10,340 VND Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 20,789 VND – 62,000 VND · fair‑value band 8,284 VND – 12,409 VND · the 59,000 VND price screens above the 10,340 VND fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Thu Dau Mot Water Joint Stock Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in producing and supplying treated water in Vietnam.

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Thu Dau Mot Water Joint Stock Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in producing and supplying treated water in Vietnam. It is also involved in the investment, exploitation, treatment, and supply of clean water for daily life and production; investment and management of drainage systems; construction and repair of water supply and drainage systems; purchase and sale of water supplies, other installation materials, and equipment in construction; construction of houses, medium and low voltage lines, substations, public lighting systems, medium and low voltage lines, substations, and public lighting systems; installation of other construction systems; and other specialized construction activities. In addition, the company provides architectural design, civil, and industrial structures services; design of water supply and drainage, electricity for civil and industrial works, and small and medium-sized irrigation works; supervision of the construction and completion of civil, industrial, and technical infrastructure works; estimation of cost estimates and work construction investment projects; environmental consulting services; and water quality and environmental analysis and assessment services. Thu Dau Mot Water Joint Stock Company was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Thu Dau Mot, Vietnam.

Stock analysis

Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM) currently trades at 59,000 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 10,340 VND, implying the stock looks roughly 470.8% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 26,556 VND per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the 59,000 VND price.

Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 4,393 VND, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 8,284 VND (bear) to 12,409 VND (bull), the price of 59,000 VND sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Thu Dau Mot Water JSC reported revenue of 506B VND in FY2025 versus 417B VND in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was 210B VND in FY2025, compounding −10.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 6.6T VND · P/E ratio 38.6 · P/S ratio 16.0 · EPS (TTM) 1,527 VND · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 41.5% · Return on equity 7.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 5% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −42% fair-value upside, at −82%, TDM screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (2,049 VND to 34,004 VND). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear 8,284 VND Fair Value 10,340 VND Bull 12,409 VND
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then (167.01 VND per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings 11,072 VND 14,897 VND 19,723 VND 77
Residual Income 17,724 VND 18,517 VND 18,756 VND 76
EPV 3,775 VND 4,669 VND 5,394 VND 74
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings 11,072 VND 14,897 VND 19,723 VND 77
5Y Revenue Exit 1,380 VND 4,379 VND 8,244 VND 68
5Y EBITDA Exit 4,958 VND 10,574 VND 17,113 VND 73
5Y P/E Exit 9,322 VND 18,132 VND 27,255 VND 69
10Y Revenue Exit n/a 2,049 VND 4,644 VND 64
10Y EBITDA Exit 1,959 VND 5,579 VND 9,940 VND 64
10Y P/E Exit 4,271 VND 9,886 VND 15,997 VND 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 12,846 VND 25,454 VND 31,927 VND 66
EPV 3,775 VND 4,669 VND 5,394 VND 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 9,655 VND 12,524 VND 14,984 VND 69
DDM Multi-Stage 9,655 VND 12,424 VND 15,060 VND 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple 25,503 VND 34,004 VND 42,505 VND 63
P/S Multiple 8,542 VND 11,389 VND 14,236 VND 58
P/B Multiple 24,086 VND 32,115 VND 40,144 VND 55
EV/EBIT 9,362 VND 13,708 VND 18,054 VND 65
EV/EBITDA 12,507 VND 17,901 VND 23,295 VND 67
EV/Revenue 4,297 VND 7,713 VND 11,130 VND 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 11,633 VND 15,588 VND 23,266 VND 54
Growth DCF
Rev-Margin DCF 1,380 VND 4,393 VND 7,648 VND 68
Economic Profit
Residual Income 17,724 VND 18,517 VND 18,756 VND 76
ROIC Compounder 3,775 VND 4,669 VND 5,394 VND 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 18,589 VND 26,556 VND 34,523 VND 67

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 44/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60

Profitability 39
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 20
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 31
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 69
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 88
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 45
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 53
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 63
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 43/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in VND ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in VND: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−2.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.51% → 25%

TDM screens 471% overvalued. Compare with American Water Works Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Water · 65 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 44 · Below median
Fair Value upside −83% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM) 7% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 39% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 38% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −22% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.21× · Lowest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 38.6× · Priciest 25%
P/B 2.54× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM) 13.53× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF 0.0× · Cheapest 25%
EV/EBITDA 32.6× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 6
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 29
PAST (return on equity)29 · sector 31
HEALTH (low debt)89 · sector 66
DIVIDEND (yield)44 · sector 48

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
American Water Works Company AWK $133.06 $65.80 −51%
SBS SBS $5.39 $7.68 +42%
Essential Utilities, Inc WTRG $40.18 $23.28 −42%
Guangdong Investment Limited 0270 HK$8.67 HK$12.82 +48%
Grandblue Environment Co 600323 ¥28.90 ¥57.09 +98%
American States Water Company AWR $84.39 $38.40 −54%
Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co 000598 ¥7.06 ¥9.09 +29%
California Water Service Group CWT $47.29 $25.75 −46%
Chongqing Water Group 601158 ¥3.99 ¥1.76 −56%
H2O America, through its subsidiaries, HTO $62.92 $29.35 −53%

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Thu Dau Mot Water JSC · Fair Value
10,340 VND −471%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Thu Dau Mot Water JSC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TDM

Frequently asked questions

Is Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 10,340 VND versus a price of 59,000 VND, about −82% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TDM?
Our model-based fair value for Thu Dau Mot Water JSC is 10,340 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 59,000 VND.
What is the quality score of TDM?
Thu Dau Mot Water JSC has a Quality Score of 44/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 10,340 VND (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario 8,284 VND, optimistic scenario 12,409 VND. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Thu Dau Mot Water JSC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 10,340 VND, about −82% upside versus a price of 59,000 VND (overvalued). Cautious scenario 8,284 VND, optimistic scenario 12,409 VND. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
Thu Dau Mot Water JSC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 484B VND (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Thu Dau Mot Water JSC pay a dividend?
Thu Dau Mot Water JSC currently shows a dividend yield of about 2.20% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Thu Dau Mot Water JSC it is 10,340 VND per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of 59,000 VND. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Thu Dau Mot Water JSC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TDM trades above its calculated fair value: price 59,000 VND, fair value 10,340 VND, a gap of about −82% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TDM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (59,000 VND); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (10,340 VND). For Thu Dau Mot Water JSC the two are 48,660 VND per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Thu Dau Mot Water JSC worth?
The market values Thu Dau Mot Water JSC at about 6.6T VND (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is 59,000 VND; our models calculate a fair value of 10,340 VND per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TDM?
Our models span a range for Thu Dau Mot Water JSC: cautious scenario 8,284 VND, base 10,340 VND, optimistic 12,409 VND per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price 59,000 VND). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TDM?
Thu Dau Mot Water JSC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 38.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 10,340 VND is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 33.8 (reported 31.2). Other multiples: P/B 2.5, P/S 13.5, EV/EBITDA 32.6.
How solid is the balance sheet of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 7.3%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 44/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TDM from its 52-week high?
Thu Dau Mot Water JSC trades at 59,000 VND, about 5% below its 52-week high of 62,000 VND and 13% above the low of 52,015 VND (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 10,340 VND is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Thu Dau Mot Water JSC?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value American Water Works Company, SBS, Essential Utilities, Inc, Guangdong Investment Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Thu Dau Mot Water JSC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price 59,000 VND, calculated fair value 10,340 VND (−82%), Quality Score 44/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TDM calculated?
We run Thu Dau Mot Water JSC through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 10,340 VND, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.0 % above its aggregate fair value. Thu Dau Mot Water JSC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 59,000 VND. Our model-based fair value is 10,340 VND, about −82% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Thu Dau Mot Water JSC right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (12,409 VND). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC

How large is the market capitalisation of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
The market capitalisation of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC is 6.6T VND. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC is 16.0 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
Earnings per share at Thu Dau Mot Water JSC are 1,527 VND (price ÷ EPS = P/E 38.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
The dividend yield of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC is 2.2% (payout 85.1%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
The net margin of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC is 41.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC is 7.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC is 7.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
The operating margin of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC is 37.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
Revenue at Thu Dau Mot Water JSC is growing −21.7% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
Earnings per share at Thu Dau Mot Water JSC are growing −15.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM) generate?
The free cash flow of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC is 5.8B VND (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM) carry?
The net debt of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC is 539B VND (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 93.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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