Thu Dau Mot Water Joint Stock Company (TDM) Fair Value & Analysis
Utilities · VN · Market cap 6.7T VND
Fair value as of: Jul 18, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 24 days ago
Share price +4.6% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 73% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (22,118 VND). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (44/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (11,330 VND to 22,118 VND) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 20,789 VND – 62,000 VND · fair‑value band 11,330 VND – 22,118 VND · the 62,000 VND price screens above the 16,724 VND fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 18, 2026.
Analysis
Thu Dau Mot Water Joint Stock Company (TDM) currently trades at 62,000 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 16,724 VND, implying the stock looks roughly 73.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 44/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Thu Dau Mot Water Joint Stock Company generated revenue of 484B VND at a net margin of 38.9%. Revenue declined 21.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 7.3%. Net debt stands at 539B VND. Fundamentals as of Jul 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 11,330 VND (bear case) to 22,118 VND (bull case); at 62,000 VND, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at -10% fair-value upside, at -73%, TDM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (26,556 VND) versus Growth DCF (4,799 VND). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 66
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Thu Dau Mot Water Joint Stock Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in producing and supplying treated water in Vietnam.
Full company description
Thu Dau Mot Water Joint Stock Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in producing and supplying treated water in Vietnam. It is also involved in the investment, exploitation, treatment, and supply of clean water for daily life and production; investment and management of drainage systems; construction and repair of water supply and drainage systems; purchase and sale of water supplies, other installation materials, and equipment in construction; construction of houses, medium and low voltage lines, substations, public lighting systems, medium and low voltage lines, substations, and public lighting systems; installation of other construction systems; and other specialized construction activities. In addition, the company provides architectural design, civil, and industrial structures services; design of water supply and drainage, electricity for civil and industrial works, and small and medium-sized irrigation works; supervision of the construction and completion of civil, industrial, and technical infrastructure works; estimation of cost estimates and work construction investment projects; environmental consulting services; and water quality and environmental analysis and assessment services. Thu Dau Mot Water Joint Stock Company was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Thu Dau Mot, Vietnam.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Thu Dau Mot Water Joint Stock Company reported revenue of 506B VND in FY2025 versus 417B VND in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was 210B VND in FY2025, compounding −10.6%/yr from FY2021.
TDM screens 73% overvalued. Compare with American Water Works Company →
Peer Group
Utilities - Regulated Water · 67 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Water stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| American Water Works Company AWK | $134.33 | $65.80 | -51% |
| SBSP3 SBSP3 | R$29.22 | R$31.23 | +7% |
| SBS SBS | $5.79 | $5.21 | -10% |
| Essential Utilities, Inc WTRG | $38.59 | $21.81 | -43% |
| CSMG3 CSMG3 | R$66.10 | R$60.17 | -9% |
| Grandblue Environment Co 600323 | ¥29.42 | ¥33.29 | +13% |
| American States Water Company AWR | $85.01 | $48.02 | -44% |
| Chengdu Xingrong Environment Co 000598 | ¥6.97 | ¥10.74 | +54% |
| California Water Service Group CWT | $49.73 | $33.56 | -33% |
| Chongqing Water Group 601158 | ¥4.12 | ¥2.77 | -33% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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