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Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC stock VND 9,400, price VND 58,500, that is 83.9% below the price, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 22 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

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Utilities VN · ISIN VN000000TDM3

TD Thu Dau Mot Water JSC logo Thin data Nov 8, 2026

Thu Dau Mot Water JSC

TDM · VN
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 84% below what the stock costs today.

Highly profitable · 32.8% net margin (TTM)
Low debt
Generates free cash flow
Quality 46/100
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +5.6 %/yr in VND)
2.2% dividend yield · Watch coverage
Wide moat 65/100 · thin data
Revenue last quarter 10% below a year ago.
Fair value 9,400 VND · Strongly overvalued
Trails peers (4/13)
Thin data
Extreme value
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What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

62,000 VND 21,228 VND Fair Value 9,400 VND May 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 8, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 21,228 VND – 62,000 VND · fair‑value band 7,531 VND – 11,281 VND · the 58,500 VND price screens above the 9,400 VND fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 8, 2026.

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Company profile

Thu Dau Mot Water Joint Stock Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in producing and supplying treated water in Vietnam.

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It is also involved in the investment, exploitation, treatment, and supply of clean water for daily life and production; investment and management of drainage systems; construction and repair of water supply and drainage systems; purchase and sale of water supplies, other installation materials, and equipment in construction; construction of houses, medium and low voltage lines, substations, public lighting systems, medium and low voltage lines, substations, and public lighting systems; installation of other construction systems; and other specialized construction activities.

In addition, the company provides architectural design, civil, and industrial structures services; design of water supply and drainage, electricity for civil and industrial works, and small and medium-sized irrigation works; supervision of the construction and completion of civil, industrial, and technical infrastructure works; estimation of cost estimates and work construction investment projects; environmental consulting services; and water quality and environmental analysis and assessment services.

Thu Dau Mot Water Joint Stock Company was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in Thu Dau Mot, Vietnam.

Stock analysis

Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM) currently trades at 58,500 VND, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 9,400 VND, 84% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of 24,142 VND per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the 58,500 VND price.

Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at 3,305 VND, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 7,531 VND (bear) to 11,281 VND (bull), the price of 58,500 VND sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Thu Dau Mot Water JSC reported revenue of 506B VND in FY2025 versus 417B VND in FY2021, a compound +5.0%/yr. Reported net income was 210B VND in FY2025, compounding −10.6%/yr from FY2021.

Key figures

Market cap 7.1T VND (≈ $279M) Micro · P/E ratio 35.8 · P/S ratio 15.1 · EPS (TTM) 1,633 VND · Dividend yield 2.2% · Net margin 32.8% · Return on equity 6.1% · Return on assets (EBIT) 7.6% (5-year average).

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 65 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at −43% fair-value upside, at −84%, TDM screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely (1,032 VND to 37,397 VND). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear 7,531 VND Fair Value 9,400 VND Bull 11,281 VND
Price 58,500 VND · Downside -83.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (285.48 VND per share) are deliberately not added. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds. Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
Owner Earnings 8,503 VND 10,993 VND 13,949 VND 78
Residual Income 15,139 VND 15,504 VND 16,487 VND 76
EPV 2,441 VND 3,023 VND 3,480 VND 74
All 22 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings 8,503 VND 10,993 VND 13,949 VND 78
5Y Revenue Exit 842.08 VND 3,292 VND 6,447 VND 67
5Y EBITDA Exit 3,773 VND 8,360 VND 13,695 VND 72
5Y P/E Exit 7,348 VND 14,542 VND 21,984 VND 69
10Y Revenue Exit n/a 1,032 VND 2,940 VND 64
10Y EBITDA Exit 965.51 VND 3,630 VND 6,831 VND 63
10Y P/E Exit 2,672 VND 6,800 VND 11,281 VND 61
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 11,678 VND 23,140 VND 29,025 VND 66
EPV 2,441 VND 3,023 VND 3,480 VND 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 7,531 VND 9,400 VND 10,890 VND 69
DDM Multi-Stage 7,531 VND 9,342 VND 10,931 VND 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple 23,185 VND 30,913 VND 38,641 VND 63
P/S Multiple 7,765 VND 10,353 VND 12,942 VND 58
P/B Multiple 28,047 VND 37,397 VND 46,746 VND 55
EV/EBIT 7,441 VND 11,392 VND 15,343 VND 65
EV/EBITDA 10,300 VND 15,203 VND 20,107 VND 66
EV/Revenue 2,836 VND 5,942 VND 9,048 VND 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 10,388 VND 13,920 VND 20,776 VND 54
Growth DCF
Rev-Margin DCF 842.08 VND 3,305 VND 5,964 VND 68
Economic Profit
Residual Income 15,139 VND 15,504 VND 16,487 VND 76
ROIC Compounder 2,441 VND 3,023 VND 3,480 VND 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E 16,899 VND 24,142 VND 31,384 VND 67

Open the full fair value analysis →

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 39
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 30
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 31
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 69
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 33
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 87
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 42
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 50
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 63
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 43/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−7.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.9%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+5.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in VND ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Measured in VND: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
−2.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−5.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.2%
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.51% → 25%

TDM screens overvalued: fair value 84% below the price. Compare with American Water Works Company →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Water · 64 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/13 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside −83.9% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months) 6.1% · Below median
Return on assets 6.2% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months) 32.8% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months) 44.9% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) −10.4% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (12 months) 2.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.21× · Below median

Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Water median · lower = cheaper

P/E (12 months) 35.8× · Priciest 25%
P/B 2.77× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 15.08× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 39.5× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 32
PAST (return on equity)24 · sector 30
HEALTH (low debt)89 · sector 68
DIVIDEND (yield)44 · sector 50

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

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Thu Dau Mot Water JSC: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Thu Dau Mot Water JSC Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TDM

Frequently asked questions

Is Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 8, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 9,400 VND versus a price of 58,500 VND, about 84% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TDM?
Our model-based fair value for Thu Dau Mot Water JSC is 9,400 VND (as of Nov 8, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 58,500 VND.
What is the quality score of TDM?
Thu Dau Mot Water JSC has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 9,400 VND (as of Nov 8, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario 7,531 VND, optimistic scenario 11,281 VND. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Thu Dau Mot Water JSC stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 9,400 VND, about 84% lower versus a price of 58,500 VND (overvalued). Cautious scenario 7,531 VND, optimistic scenario 11,281 VND. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
Thu Dau Mot Water JSC reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 474B VND (latest available figure, as of Nov 8, 2026).
Does Thu Dau Mot Water JSC pay a dividend?
Thu Dau Mot Water JSC currently shows a dividend yield of 2.22% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 8, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Thu Dau Mot Water JSC pays a dividend of 1,300 VND per share a year, a dividend yield of 2.2%. The last ex-dividend date was Apr 14, 2026. The payout ratio is 83.9% of earnings (on adjusted earnings, reported 79.6%). Free cash flow covers the dividend 0.04 times. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Thu Dau Mot Water JSC it is 9,400 VND per share (as of Nov 8, 2026), against a price of 58,500 VND. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models in 8 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings).
Is Thu Dau Mot Water JSC stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 8, 2026, TDM trades above its calculated fair value: price 58,500 VND, fair value 9,400 VND, a gap of about −84% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TDM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (58,500 VND); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (9,400 VND). For Thu Dau Mot Water JSC the two are 49,100 VND per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Thu Dau Mot Water JSC worth?
The market values Thu Dau Mot Water JSC at about 7.1T VND (market capitalisation, as of Nov 8, 2026). Per share that is 58,500 VND; our models calculate a fair value of 9,400 VND per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TDM?
Our models span a range for Thu Dau Mot Water JSC: cautious scenario 7,531 VND, base 9,400 VND, optimistic 11,281 VND per share (as of Nov 8, 2026, price 58,500 VND). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TDM?
Thu Dau Mot Water JSC trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 35.8 (as of Nov 8, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 9,400 VND is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 33.5 (reported for FY2025: 31.8). Other multiples: P/B 2.8, P/S 15.1, EV/EBITDA 39.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (as of Nov 8, 2026): return on equity 6.1%, debt of 0.21 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TDM from its 52-week high?
Thu Dau Mot Water JSC trades at 58,500 VND, about 6% below its 52-week high of 62,000 VND and 12% above the low of 52,015 VND (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 9,400 VND is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Thu Dau Mot Water JSC?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value American Water Works Company, Essential Utilities, Inc, Grandblue Environment Co, American States Water Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Thu Dau Mot Water JSC stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 8, 2026: price 58,500 VND, calculated fair value 9,400 VND (−84%), Quality Score 46/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TDM calculated?
We run Thu Dau Mot Water JSC through 22 models from 8 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Dividend Discount, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit, Growth Earnings. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 9,400 VND builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Thu Dau Mot Water JSC itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 58,500 VND. Our model-based fair value is 9,400 VND, about 84% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Thu Dau Mot Water JSC right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (11,281 VND). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (46/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC

How large is the market capitalisation of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
The market capitalisation of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC is 7.1T VND (≈ $279M). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC is 15.1 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
Earnings per share at Thu Dau Mot Water JSC are 1,633 VND (price ÷ EPS = P/E 35.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
The dividend yield of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC is 2.2% (payout 83.9%, on adjusted earnings, reported 79.6%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
The net margin of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC is 32.8% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC is 6.1% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC is 7.6% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
The operating margin of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC is 44.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
Revenue at Thu Dau Mot Water JSC is growing −10.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.9%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM)?
Earnings per share at Thu Dau Mot Water JSC are growing −62.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM) generate?
The free cash flow of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC is 5.8B VND (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Thu Dau Mot Water JSC (TDM) carry?
The net debt of Thu Dau Mot Water JSC is 539B VND (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 93.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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