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Tadiran Hldg (TDRN) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Tadiran Hldg ILS 32.64, price ILS 200, upside -83.7%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? No
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Technology · Il · ISIN IL0002580129

TH Thin data Sep 23, 2026

Tadiran Hldg

TDRN · TA

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.

!Fair value 32.64 ILA · Strongly overvalued (−84%)
!Quality 46/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +13.4 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -1.9% net margin (TTM)
✓Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (6/13)
!Narrow moat 25/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on future: 21 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 4 out of 100
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

556.92 ILA 128.50 ILA Fair Value 32.64 ILA May 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 128.50 ILA – 556.92 ILA · fair‑value band 24.86 ILA – 39.05 ILA · the 200.00 ILA price screens above the 32.64 ILA fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.

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Company profile

Tadiran Group Ltd engages in the import, marketing, distribution, and sale of air conditioners and air conditioning systems in Israel, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through the Consumer Goods, Energy, and Other segments.

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Tadiran Group Ltd engages in the import, marketing, distribution, and sale of air conditioners and air conditioning systems in Israel, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through the Consumer Goods, Energy, and Other segments. It offers air conditioners and air conditioning systems under the Tadiran, Amcor, SFERA, Toshiba, and Spectra brands; and central cooling units under the Aermec brand; fan coil blowers; refrigerators, washing machines, dryers, freezers, ovens, and microwaves under the Amcor and Crystal brands, as well as heat pumps. The company also provides after-sales, warranty, and maintenance services. In addition, it is involved in the import, distribution, and trade of photovoltaic energy products; production of aluminum profiles for construction of solar energy systems; planning and execution of various types of building cladding projects; and provision of fire protection solutions and related products. The company was formerly known as Tadiran Holdings Ltd and changed its name to Tadiran Group Ltd in May 2021. Tadiran Group Ltd was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Petah Tikva, Israel.

Stock analysis

Tadiran Hldg (TDRN) currently trades at 200.00 ILA, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 32.64 ILA, implying the stock looks roughly 512.7% overvalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 160.35 ILA per share, and 2 of the 15 models we run sit above the 200.00 ILA price.

Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at 5.29 ILA, and 13 of the 15 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: 24.86 ILA (bear) to 39.05 ILA (bull), the price of 200.00 ILA sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.

Tadiran Hldg reported revenue of 1.9B ILS in FY2025 versus 1.4B ILS in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was −49.9M ILS in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 1.7B ILA · P/S ratio 0.86 · EPS (TTM) −4.17 ILA · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin −2.7% · Return on equity −7.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.1% · Operating margin 3.7%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 46 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 56% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −84%, TDRN screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear 24.86 ILA Fair Value 32.64 ILA Bull 39.05 ILA
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Owner Earnings 63.04 ILA 110.90 ILA 176.54 ILA 75
EPV 27.60 ILA 36.15 ILA 43.28 ILA 74
FCF DCF 4.86 ILA 24.35 ILA 51.08 ILA 73
All 15 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF 4.86 ILA 24.35 ILA 51.08 ILA 73
Owner Earnings 63.04 ILA 110.90 ILA 176.54 ILA 75
5Y Revenue Exit 37.68 ILA 91.41 ILA 161.69 ILA 69
5Y EBITDA Exit 109.51 ILA 228.33 ILA 370.73 ILA 73
10Y Revenue Exit 21.07 ILA 64.16 ILA 124.80 ILA 62
10Y EBITDA Exit 65.84 ILA 151.91 ILA 273.12 ILA 65
Earnings-Based
EPV 27.60 ILA 36.15 ILA 43.28 ILA 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM 3.26 ILA 5.87 ILA 8.08 ILA 68
DDM Multi-Stage 3.26 ILA 5.29 ILA 6.27 ILA 67
Multiples
EV/EBIT 111.48 ILA 160.35 ILA 209.21 ILA 65
EV/EBITDA 204.12 ILA 283.87 ILA 363.61 ILA 67
EV/Revenue 63.70 ILA 106.05 ILA 148.40 ILA 52
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 23.91 ILA 32.04 ILA 47.83 ILA 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 4.94 ILA 21.58 ILA 42.81 ILA 72
Economic Profit
ROIC Compounder 27.60 ILA 36.15 ILA 43.28 ILA 72

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 46/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50

Profitability 27
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 12
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 41
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 100
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 63
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 37
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 56
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.0% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
14.4% (2020) → 5.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

Growth Forecast

A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+73.6%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Israel: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +70.0% a year for the price.

TDRN screens 513% overvalued. Compare with Samsung Electronics Co →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Consumer Electronics · 127 stocks

Beats the industry median on 6/12 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 46 · Below median
Fair Value upside −84% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) −2% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth 4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity 0.98× · Highest 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Consumer Electronics median · lower = cheaper

P/B 1.37× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.30× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 85.4× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA 7.0× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 9
FUTURE (revenue growth)21 · sector 5
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 18
HEALTH (low debt)51 · sector 97
DIVIDEND (yield)4 · sector 30

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Consumer Electronics stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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Samsung Electronics Co 005930 285,500 KRW 163,849 KRW −43%
Sony Group SONY $23.42 $30.15 +29%
Xiaomi Corporation 1810 HK$26.18 HK$44.40 +70%
LG Electronics Inc 066570 209,000 KRW 97,565 KRW −53%
Huaqin Co 603296 ¥79.93 ¥39.69 −50%
Goertek Inc 002241 ¥24.64 ¥14.47 −41%
LG Corp 003550 111,900 KRW 87,717 KRW −22%
Shenzhen Transsion Holdings 688036 ¥55.65 ¥54.13 −3%
Anker Innovations Limited 300866 ¥123.90 ¥78.13 −37%
Dixon Technologies (India) Limited DIXON ₹13,200 ₹4,022 −70%

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Tadiran Hldg · Fair Value
32.64 ILA −513%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tadiran Hldg Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TDRN

Frequently asked questions

Is Tadiran Hldg (TDRN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 32.64 ILA versus a price of 200.00 ILA, about −84% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TDRN?
Our model-based fair value for Tadiran Hldg is 32.64 ILA (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 200.00 ILA.
What is the quality score of TDRN?
Tadiran Hldg has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 32.64 ILA (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 15 valuation models. Cautious scenario 24.86 ILA, optimistic scenario 39.05 ILA. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tadiran Hldg stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 32.64 ILA, about −84% upside versus a price of 200.00 ILA (overvalued). Cautious scenario 24.86 ILA, optimistic scenario 39.05 ILA. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
Tadiran Hldg reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.9B ILS (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Tadiran Hldg pay a dividend?
Tadiran Hldg currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.22% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tadiran Hldg would have to grow free cash flow by +73.6 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.5 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TDRN use?
Our models discount Tadiran Hldg at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.39, country premium for Israel. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tadiran Hldg that is +73.6 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tadiran Hldg (TDRN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tadiran Hldg grew +13.5 % a year. The price currently implies +73.6 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +2.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tadiran Hldg (+73.6 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.38 %: that much free cash flow Tadiran Hldg produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tadiran Hldg it is 32.64 ILA per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of 200.00 ILA. It is the blended result of 15 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Tadiran Hldg stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TDRN trades above its calculated fair value: price 200.00 ILA, fair value 32.64 ILA, a gap of about −84% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TDRN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (200.00 ILA); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (32.64 ILA). For Tadiran Hldg the two are 167.36 ILA per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tadiran Hldg worth?
The market values Tadiran Hldg at about 1.7B ILA (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is 200.00 ILA; our models calculate a fair value of 32.64 ILA per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TDRN?
Our models span a range for Tadiran Hldg: cautious scenario 24.86 ILA, base 32.64 ILA, optimistic 39.05 ILA per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price 200.00 ILA). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tadiran Hldg (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity −7.3%, debt of 0.98 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TDRN from its 52-week high?
Tadiran Hldg trades at 200.00 ILA, about 12% below its 52-week high of 227.00 ILA and 56% above the low of 128.50 ILA (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 32.64 ILA is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tadiran Hldg?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Samsung Electronics Co, Sony Group, Xiaomi Corporation, LG Electronics Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tadiran Hldg stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price 200.00 ILA, calculated fair value 32.64 ILA (−84%), Quality Score 46/100, from 15 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TDRN calculated?
We run Tadiran Hldg through 15 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 32.64 ILA, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Tadiran Hldg itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was 200.00 ILA. Our model-based fair value is 32.64 ILA, about −84% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tadiran Hldg right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (39.05 ILA). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN) come from?
Earnings per share at Tadiran Hldg grew +0.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.2 %, EBIT margin −2.1 %, tax rate −5.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.

Key figures of Tadiran Hldg

How large is the market capitalisation of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
The market capitalisation of Tadiran Hldg is 1.7B ILA. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tadiran Hldg is 0.86 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
Earnings per share at Tadiran Hldg are −4.17 ILA. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
The dividend yield of Tadiran Hldg is 0.2%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
The net margin of Tadiran Hldg is −2.7% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tadiran Hldg is −7.3% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tadiran Hldg is 11.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
The operating margin of Tadiran Hldg is 3.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
Revenue at Tadiran Hldg is growing +4.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
Earnings per share at Tadiran Hldg are growing −32.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tadiran Hldg (TDRN) carry?
The net debt of Tadiran Hldg is 447M ILA (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 67.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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