Tadiran Hldg (TDRN) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 6, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Tadiran Hldg stock ILS 88.40, price ILS 171, that is 48.2% below the price, quality 46 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 13 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 7, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 128.50 ILS – 556.92 ILS · fair‑value band 36.03 ILS – 156.87 ILS · the 170.70 ILS price screens above the 88.40 ILS fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 7, 2026.
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Tadiran Group Ltd engages in the import, marketing, distribution, and sale of air conditioners and air conditioning systems in Israel, Europe, and internationally. The company operates through the Consumer Goods, Energy, and Other segments.
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It offers air conditioners and air conditioning systems under the Tadiran, Amcor, SFERA, Toshiba, and Spectra brands; and central cooling units under the Aermec brand; fan coil blowers; refrigerators, washing machines, dryers, freezers, ovens, and microwaves under the Amcor and Crystal brands, as well as heat pumps.
The company also provides after-sales, warranty, and maintenance services.
In addition, it is involved in the import, distribution, and trade of photovoltaic energy products; production of aluminum profiles for construction of solar energy systems; planning and execution of various types of building cladding projects; and provision of fire protection solutions and related products.
The company was formerly known as Tadiran Holdings Ltd and changed its name to Tadiran Group Ltd in May 2021. Tadiran Group Ltd was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Petah Tikva, Israel.
Stock analysis
Tadiran Hldg (TDRN) currently trades at 170.70 ILS, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 88.40 ILS, 48% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of 143.42 ILS per share, and 2 of the 13 models we run sit above the 170.70 ILS price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at 12.41 ILS, and 11 of the 13 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: 36.03 ILS (bear) to 156.87 ILS (bull), the price of 170.70 ILS sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Tadiran Hldg reported revenue of 1.9B ILS in FY2025 versus 1.4B ILS in FY2021, a compound +6.5%/yr. Reported net income was −49.9M ILS in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 1.5B ILS Small · P/E ratio 60.7 · P/S ratio 0.78 · EPS (TTM) 2.81 ILS · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 1.2% · Return on equity 5.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 11.1% (5-year average).
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 30 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 25% below its 52-week high and 33% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at 5% fair-value upside, at −48%, TDRN screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear36.03 ILSFair Value 88.40 ILSBull156.87 ILS
Price 170.70 ILS · Downside -48.2%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (2.41 ILS per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.40/100
Revenue growth is inconsistent: the periods point in different directions, so there is no trend to rely on.
Revenue growth 1 year
−3.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−6.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.0% a year
Revenue growth 21 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.9%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
14.4% (2020) → 5.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+70.4%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain.
After inflation (Israel: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +66.9% a year for the price.
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Consumer Electronics · 114 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−48.2% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)5.5% · Below median
Return on assets−3.1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)1.2% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)6.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)15.1% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.98× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Consumer Electronics median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Tadiran Hldg Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TDRN
Frequently asked questions
Is Tadiran Hldg (TDRN) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 7, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 88.40 ILS versus a price of 170.70 ILS, about 48% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TDRN?
Our model-based fair value for Tadiran Hldg is 88.40 ILS (as of Nov 7, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 170.70 ILS.
What is the quality score of TDRN?
Tadiran Hldg has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 88.40 ILS (as of Nov 7, 2026) from 13 valuation models. Cautious scenario 36.03 ILS, optimistic scenario 156.87 ILS. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Tadiran Hldg stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 88.40 ILS, about 48% lower versus a price of 170.70 ILS (overvalued). Cautious scenario 36.03 ILS, optimistic scenario 156.87 ILS. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
Tadiran Hldg reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 1.9B ILS (latest available figure, as of Nov 7, 2026).
Does Tadiran Hldg pay a dividend?
Tadiran Hldg currently shows a dividend yield of 0.22% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 7, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
Tadiran Hldg has a dividend yield of 0.2%.
What growth is priced into Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Tadiran Hldg would have to grow free cash flow by +70.4 % per year for five years (discount rate 11.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +13.5 % per year. Calculated on free cash flow for fiscal year 2025. Over the last twelve months it was negative, so the figure above is uncertain. As of Nov 7, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TDRN use?
Our models discount Tadiran Hldg at 11.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (small), damped by beta 0.42, country premium for Israel. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Tadiran Hldg that is +70.4 % per year for five years, then slowing evenly to 2 % by year ten, using the same discount rate (11.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Tadiran Hldg (TDRN) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Tadiran Hldg grew +13.5 % a year. The price currently implies free-cash-flow growth of +70.4 % per year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +4.7 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Tadiran Hldg (+70.4 % per year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.45 % in the last fiscal year (free cash flow was negative over the last twelve months): that much free cash flow Tadiran Hldg produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (11.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Tadiran Hldg it is 88.40 ILS per share (as of Nov 7, 2026), against a price of 170.70 ILS. It is the blended result of 13 valuation models in 6 families (DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit).
Is Tadiran Hldg stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 7, 2026, TDRN trades above its calculated fair value: price 170.70 ILS, fair value 88.40 ILS, a gap of about −48% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TDRN?
No. The price is what the market pays today (170.70 ILS); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (88.40 ILS). For Tadiran Hldg the two are 82.30 ILS per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Tadiran Hldg worth?
The market values Tadiran Hldg at about 1.5B ILS (market capitalisation, as of Nov 7, 2026). Per share that is 170.70 ILS; our models calculate a fair value of 88.40 ILS per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TDRN?
Our models span a range for Tadiran Hldg: cautious scenario 36.03 ILS, base 88.40 ILS, optimistic 156.87 ILS per share (as of Nov 7, 2026, price 170.70 ILS). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TDRN?
Tadiran Hldg trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 60.7 (as of Nov 7, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 88.40 ILS is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2024), reported earnings: 20.2. Other multiples: P/B 3.7, P/S 0.8, EV/EBITDA 8.7.
How solid is the balance sheet of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
Balance-sheet figures for Tadiran Hldg (as of Nov 7, 2026): return on equity 5.5%, debt of 0.98 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TDRN from its 52-week high?
Tadiran Hldg trades at 170.70 ILS, about 25% below its 52-week high of 227.00 ILS and 33% above the low of 128.50 ILS (as of Nov 6, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 88.40 ILS is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Tadiran Hldg?
From the same area (Technology) we also value Samsung Electronics Co, Sony Group, Xiaomi Corporation, LG Electronics Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Tadiran Hldg stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 7, 2026: price 170.70 ILS, calculated fair value 88.40 ILS (−48%), Quality Score 46/100, from 13 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TDRN calculated?
We run Tadiran Hldg through 13 models from 6 families: DCF Models, Earnings-Based, Multiples, Asset-Based, Growth DCF, Economic Profit. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of 88.40 ILS builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.3% above its aggregate fair value. Tadiran Hldg itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
The closing price on Nov 6, 2026 was 170.70 ILS. Our model-based fair value is 88.40 ILS, about 48% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Tadiran Hldg right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (156.87 ILS). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (46/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide (36.03 ILS to 156.87 ILS). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN) come from?
Earnings per share at Tadiran Hldg grew +0.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +11.2 %, EBIT margin −2.1 %, tax rate −5.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −2.4 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Tadiran Hldg
How large is the market capitalisation of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
The market capitalisation of Tadiran Hldg is 1.5B ILS. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Tadiran Hldg is 0.78 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
Earnings per share at Tadiran Hldg are 2.81 ILS (price ÷ EPS = P/E 60.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
The dividend yield of Tadiran Hldg is 0.2% (payout 13.4%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
The net margin of Tadiran Hldg is 1.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Tadiran Hldg is 5.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Tadiran Hldg is 11.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
The operating margin of Tadiran Hldg is 6.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
Revenue at Tadiran Hldg is growing +15.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg −6.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Tadiran Hldg (TDRN)?
Earnings per share at Tadiran Hldg are growing −32.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Tadiran Hldg (TDRN) carry?
The net debt of Tadiran Hldg is 447M ILS (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 67.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Nov 7, 2026