Telephone and Data Systems Inc (TDS) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 23, 2026: fair value of Telephone and Data Systems Inc $31.84, price $36.43, upside -12.6%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $4.76 – $47.50 · fair‑value band $22.89 – $39.99 · the $36.43 price screens above the $31.84 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 23, 2026.
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Telephone and Data Systems, Inc., a telecommunications company, provides communications services to residential, commercial, and wholesale customers in the United States. It operates through two segments: TDS Telecom and Array.
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Telephone and Data Systems, Inc., a telecommunications company, provides communications services to residential, commercial, and wholesale customers in the United States. It operates through two segments: TDS Telecom and Array. The company offers internet connections and all-home Wi-Fi services, fiber internet, security, and support services; advanced home TV entertainment combined with a digital video recording (DVR) services; TDS TV+, an integrated cloud TV platform that combines linear and on-demand programming, mobile device interfaces, personalized recommendations, and network-based DVR; digital television; local and long-distance telephone service, voice over internet protocol, and enhanced services; wireless services to customers; broadband, IP-based services, and hosted voice and video collaboration services to small- and medium-sized businesses; carrying data and voice traffic services; wholesale services; and communication services in underserved areas. The company is also leases tower spaces to tenants; provides ancillary services. The company sells and distributes its products through third-party direct sales, retail stores, sales agents, and an online platform to sell services and products. Telephone and Data Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 1968 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.
Stock analysis
Telephone and Data Systems Inc (TDS) currently trades at $36.43, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $31.84, implying the stock looks roughly 14.4% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $33.20 per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the $36.43 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $7.89, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $22.89 (bear) to $39.99 (bull), the price of $36.43 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Communication Services sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Telephone and Data Systems Inc reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $5.3B in FY2021, a compound −30.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$6.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $4.2B · P/E ratio 19.7 · P/S ratio 3.13 · EPS (TTM) $1.74 · Dividend yield 0.4% · Net margin −0.5% · Return on equity 6.0% · Return on assets (EBIT) −0.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 42 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 27% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Communication Services peers we cover trades at 47% fair-value upside, at −13%, TDS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $22.89Fair Value $31.84Bull $39.99
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 9 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.16 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.36/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−75.3%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−39.0%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−25.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: −13.4% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.0%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
5.0% (2020) → −5.0% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.9%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+1.1%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +5.4% a year for the price and −1.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (97 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
Compare Telephone and Data Systems Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Telecom Services · 252 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/15 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−13% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (TTM)6% · Below median
Return on assets0% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)10% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM)−1% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth7% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM)0.4% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.16× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Telecom Services median · lower = cheaper
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Telephone and Data Systems Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TDS
Frequently asked questions
Is Telephone and Data Systems Inc (TDS) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $31.84 versus a price of $36.43, about −13% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TDS?
Our model-based fair value for Telephone and Data Systems Inc is $31.84 (as of Sep 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $36.43.
What is the quality score of TDS?
Telephone and Data Systems Inc has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Telephone and Data Systems Inc (TDS)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $31.84 (as of Sep 23, 2026) from 12 valuation models. Cautious scenario $22.89, optimistic scenario $39.99. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Telephone and Data Systems Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $31.84, about −13% upside versus a price of $36.43 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $22.89, optimistic scenario $39.99. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Telephone and Data Systems Inc (TDS)?
Telephone and Data Systems Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 23, 2026).
Does Telephone and Data Systems Inc pay a dividend?
Telephone and Data Systems Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.44% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into Telephone and Data Systems Inc (TDS)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Telephone and Data Systems Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +7.9 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.5 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew -25.1 % per year. As of Sep 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TDS use?
Our models discount Telephone and Data Systems Inc at 8.5 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 0.31, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Telephone and Data Systems Inc that is +7.9 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.5 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Telephone and Data Systems Inc (TDS) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Telephone and Data Systems Inc grew -25.1 % a year. The price currently implies +7.9 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Telephone and Data Systems Inc (TDS) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +1.6 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Telephone and Data Systems Inc (+7.9 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Telephone and Data Systems Inc (TDS)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 4.65 %: that much free cash flow Telephone and Data Systems Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.5 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Telephone and Data Systems Inc (TDS)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Telephone and Data Systems Inc it is $31.84 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026), against a price of $36.43. It is the blended result of 12 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Telephone and Data Systems Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 23, 2026, TDS trades above its calculated fair value: price $36.43, fair value $31.84, a gap of about −13% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TDS?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($36.43); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($31.84). For Telephone and Data Systems Inc the two are $4.59 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Telephone and Data Systems Inc worth?
The market values Telephone and Data Systems Inc at about $4.2B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 23, 2026). Per share that is $36.43; our models calculate a fair value of $31.84 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TDS?
Our models span a range for Telephone and Data Systems Inc: cautious scenario $22.89, base $31.84, optimistic $39.99 per share (as of Sep 23, 2026, price $36.43). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TDS?
Telephone and Data Systems Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.7 (as of Sep 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $31.84 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 7.8, P/B 0.8, P/S 3.4, EV/EBITDA 13.2.
What is the PEG ratio of TDS?
The PEG ratio of Telephone and Data Systems Inc is 7.79 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Sep 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Telephone and Data Systems Inc (TDS)?
Balance-sheet figures for Telephone and Data Systems Inc (as of Sep 23, 2026): return on equity 6.0%, debt of 0.16 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TDS from its 52-week high?
Telephone and Data Systems Inc trades at $36.43, about 23% below its 52-week high of $47.50 and 27% above the low of $28.71 (as of Sep 23, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $31.84 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Telephone and Data Systems Inc?
From the same area (Communication Services) we also value China Mobile Limited, T-Mobile US, Inc, Verizon Communications Inc, AT&T Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Telephone and Data Systems Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 23, 2026: price $36.43, calculated fair value $31.84 (−13%), Quality Score 46/100, from 12 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TDS calculated?
We run Telephone and Data Systems Inc through 12 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $31.84, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. Telephone and Data Systems Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Telephone and Data Systems Inc (TDS)?
The closing price on Sep 23, 2026 was $36.43. Our model-based fair value is $31.84, about −13% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Telephone and Data Systems Inc right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin. Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Key figures of Telephone and Data Systems Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Telephone and Data Systems Inc (TDS)?
The market capitalisation of Telephone and Data Systems Inc is $4.2B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Telephone and Data Systems Inc (TDS)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Telephone and Data Systems Inc is 3.13 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Telephone and Data Systems Inc (TDS)?
Earnings per share at Telephone and Data Systems Inc are $1.74 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Telephone and Data Systems Inc (TDS)?
The dividend yield of Telephone and Data Systems Inc is 0.4% (payout 9.2%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Telephone and Data Systems Inc (TDS)?
The net margin of Telephone and Data Systems Inc is −0.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Telephone and Data Systems Inc (TDS)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Telephone and Data Systems Inc is 6.0% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Telephone and Data Systems Inc (TDS)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Telephone and Data Systems Inc is −0.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Telephone and Data Systems Inc (TDS)?
The operating margin of Telephone and Data Systems Inc is −1.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Telephone and Data Systems Inc (TDS)?
Revenue at Telephone and Data Systems Inc is growing +6.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg −39.0%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Telephone and Data Systems Inc (TDS)?
Earnings per share at Telephone and Data Systems Inc are growing −11.8% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Telephone and Data Systems Inc (TDS) carry?
The net debt of Telephone and Data Systems Inc is $1.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 6.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Sep 23, 2026