ThredUp Inc (TDUP) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Sep 22, 2026: fair value of ThredUp Inc $0.34, price $2.45, upside -86.1%, quality 46 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
Structural break:
The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Weakest SetupStrongly overvalued and low quality.
!Fair value $0.3400 · Strongly overvalued (−86%)
!Quality 46/100
!Mixed Growth(revenue 5y +10.8 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -6.7% net margin (TTM)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
!Trails peers(1/11)
!Narrow moat10/100
✓Insider activity66/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.5282 – $29.52 · fair‑value band $0.3200 – $0.4500 · the $2.45 price screens above the $0.3400 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
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ThredUp Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates an online resale platform in the United States. The company's platform enables consumers to buy and sell primarily secondhand apparel, shoes, and accessories. ThredUp Inc. was incorporated in 2009 and is headquartered in Oakland, California.
Stock analysis
ThredUp Inc (TDUP) currently trades at $2.45, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.3400, implying the stock looks roughly 620.5% overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $0.4800 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $2.45 price.
Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $0.2500, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.3200 (bear) to $0.4500 (bull), the price of $2.45 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 46/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
ThredUp Inc reported revenue of $311M in FY2025 versus $252M in FY2021, a compound +5.4%/yr. Reported net income was −$20.2M in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap $801M · P/S ratio 2.49 · EPS (TTM) $−0.1800 · Net margin −6.5% · Return on equity −37.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) −20.8% · Operating margin −8.1% · Revenue (TTM) $321M.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 38 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 8% fair-value upside, at −86%, TDUP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.3200Fair Value $0.3400Bull $0.4500
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.55/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.5%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.5%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.3%
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−25.0% (2020) → −6.5% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Internet Retail · 107 stocks
Beats the industry median on 1/10 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score46 · Below median
Fair Value upside−86% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM)−7% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM)−8% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth15% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.24× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Internet Retail median · lower = cheaper
P/B13.54× · Priciest 25%
P/S (TTM)2.50× · Priciest 25%
P/FCF4,451.9× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 46
FUTURE (revenue growth)73· sector 55
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 16
HEALTH (low debt)88· sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 35
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ThredUp Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TDUP
Frequently asked questions
Is ThredUp Inc (TDUP) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.3400 versus a price of $2.45, about −86% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TDUP?
Our model-based fair value for ThredUp Inc is $0.3400 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $2.45.
What is the quality score of TDUP?
ThredUp Inc has a Quality Score of 46/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for ThredUp Inc (TDUP)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.3400 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.3200, optimistic scenario $0.4500. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the ThredUp Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.3400, about −86% upside versus a price of $2.45 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $0.3200, optimistic scenario $0.4500. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of ThredUp Inc (TDUP)?
ThredUp Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $321M (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of ThredUp Inc (TDUP)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For ThredUp Inc it is $0.3400 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $2.45. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is ThredUp Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TDUP trades above its calculated fair value: price $2.45, fair value $0.3400, a gap of about −86% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TDUP?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($2.45); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.3400). For ThredUp Inc the two are $2.11 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is ThredUp Inc worth?
The market values ThredUp Inc at about $801M (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $2.45; our models calculate a fair value of $0.3400 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TDUP?
Our models span a range for ThredUp Inc: cautious scenario $0.3200, base $0.3400, optimistic $0.4500 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $2.45). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of ThredUp Inc (TDUP)?
Balance-sheet figures for ThredUp Inc (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −37.2%, debt of 0.24 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 46/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
Which stocks are comparable to ThredUp Inc?
From the same area (Consumer Cyclical) we also value Amazon.com, Inc, Alibaba Group, MercadoLibre, Inc, DoorDash, Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is ThredUp Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $2.45, calculated fair value $0.3400 (−86%), Quality Score 46/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TDUP calculated?
We run ThredUp Inc through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.3400, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.1 % above its aggregate fair value. ThredUp Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of ThredUp Inc (TDUP)?
The closing price on Sep 22, 2026 was $2.45. Our model-based fair value is $0.3400, about −86% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with ThredUp Inc right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($0.4500). The favourable scenario is already priced in. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution. Solid but not exceptional quality (46/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Key figures of ThredUp Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of ThredUp Inc (TDUP)?
The market capitalisation of ThredUp Inc is $801M. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of ThredUp Inc (TDUP)?
The price-to-sales ratio of ThredUp Inc is 2.49 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of ThredUp Inc (TDUP)?
Earnings per share at ThredUp Inc are $−0.1800. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of ThredUp Inc (TDUP)?
The net margin of ThredUp Inc is −6.5% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of ThredUp Inc (TDUP)?
The return on equity (ROE) of ThredUp Inc is −37.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of ThredUp Inc (TDUP)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of ThredUp Inc is −20.8% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of ThredUp Inc (TDUP)?
The operating margin of ThredUp Inc is −8.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at ThredUp Inc (TDUP)?
Revenue at ThredUp Inc is growing +14.6% versus a year earlier (3y avg +2.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How much free cash flow does ThredUp Inc (TDUP) generate?
The free cash flow of ThredUp Inc is $180K (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does ThredUp Inc (TDUP) carry?
The net debt of ThredUp Inc is $13.5M (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 75.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026