Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) Fair Value & Analysis

Technology · US · Market cap $22.5B

Below-average quality, and screening another 50% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

• The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($69.61). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
• The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
• Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $57.15 – $458.13 · fair‑value band $39.73 – $69.61 · the $110.17 price screens above the $54.67 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Atlassian Corporation (TEAM) currently trades at $110.17, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $54.67, implying the stock looks roughly 50.4% overvalued today. We read business quality at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Technology sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: low).

Over the trailing twelve months, Atlassian Corporation generated revenue of $6.2B at a net margin of -3.5%. Revenue grew 31.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -19.3%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $1.3B. Fundamentals as of Jul 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $39.73 (bear case) to $69.61 (bull case); at $110.17, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 51% below its 52-week high and 97% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Technology peers we cover trades at -27% fair-value upside, at -50%, TEAM screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($217.01) versus Asset-Based ($5.65). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

Key figures & financial health

Quality Score breakdown

About the company

Atlassian Corporation provides a collaboration software that enables organizations to connect all teams through a system of work that unlocks productivity at scale worldwide.

Full company description

Atlassian Corporation provides a collaboration software that enables organizations to connect all teams through a system of work that unlocks productivity at scale worldwide. Its product portfolio includes Jira, a project management platform for planning, tracking, and managing work; Confluence, a connected workspace to create, organize, and share team knowledge, documents, and collaboration content; Loom, an asynchronous video communication tool to record and share videos; Jira Service Management, an intuitive service management solution for IT, HR, and other teams; and Rovo, an AI offering that assists teams with its Search, Chat and Agent capabilities. The company also offers Bitbucket, a git-based source code management platform for professional development teams; Compass, a developer portal that provides a unified view of engineering components; Jira Product Discovery, a tool to capture, prioritize, and roadmap product ideas; Jira Align, an enterprise agility solution that connects business and technology teams to align strategy with execution; Focus, a strategy hub for leadership teams; and Talent, a workforce planning app. In addition, it provides Trello, an AI-powered personal productivity tool; and Guard, an app for detecting and responding to security threats. The company has a strategic collaboration with Mattermost, Inc. for the development of Mattermost Docs, a sovereign, self-hosted successor to Confluence for defense, intelligence, and critical infrastructure organizations. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Sydney, Australia.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Atlassian Corporation reported revenue of $5.2B in FY2025 versus $2.1B in FY2021, a compound +25.7%/yr. Reported net income was −$257M in FY2025.

TEAM screens 50% overvalued. Compare with SAP SE →

Peer Group

Software - Application · 709 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Valuation Multiples vs Software - Application median · lower = cheaper

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.