Thungela Resources Limited (TGA) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · ZA · Market cap 12.3B ZAC
Fair value as of: Jul 16, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated 26 days ago
Fair value updated Jul 16, 2026, revised from R119.00 to R157.46 (+32.3%) since Jun 26, 2026. Share price +6.9% over the past month.
Below-average quality, screening 60% undervalued on our models.
What matters now
- The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case (R133.65). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R9.76 – R192.06 · fair‑value band R133.65 – R181.27 · the R98.41 price screens below the R157.46 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Jul 16, 2026.
Analysis
Thungela Resources Limited (TGA) currently trades at R98.41, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R157.46, implying the stock looks roughly 60.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: low), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Thungela Resources Limited generated revenue of 29.6B ZAR at a net margin of -23.9%. Revenue declined 21.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of -33.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of 6.0B ZAR. Fundamentals as of Jul 16, 2026
Our scenario range runs from R133.65 (bear case) to R181.27 (bull case); at R98.41, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at -12% fair-value upside, at 60%, TGA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount (R211.21) versus Asset-Based (R84.28). Highest evidence: Gordon GGM (70).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Jul 16, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 38
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Thungela Resources Limited engages in the mining and production of thermal coal in South Africa and Australia. It owns interests in and produces its thermal coal from mining operations, consisting of underground and open cast mines in the Mpumalanga province of South Africa, including Greenside colliery, Khwezela colliery, Zibulo colliery, Mafube colliery, …
Full company description
Thungela Resources Limited engages in the mining and production of thermal coal in South Africa and Australia. It owns interests in and produces its thermal coal from mining operations, consisting of underground and open cast mines in the Mpumalanga province of South Africa, including Greenside colliery, Khwezela colliery, Zibulo colliery, Mafube colliery, and Annea colliery. The company also holds 100% of the Ensham Mine located in Queensland, Australia. It also exports its products to Southeast Asian, the Middle East, and African markets. Thungela Resources Limited was founded in 1945 and is based in Johannesburg, South Africa.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Thungela Resources Limited reported revenue of R29.6B in FY2025 versus R26.3B in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was −R7.1B in FY2025.
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Peer Group
Thermal Coal · 101 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Jul 16, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| China Shenhua Energy Company 601088 | ¥42.65 | ¥34.97 | -18% |
| Adani Enterprises Limited ADANIENT | ₹3,157 | ₹901.17 | -71% |
| Shaanxi Coal Industry Company 601225 | ¥24.30 | ¥23.90 | -2% |
| Yankuang Energy Group 600188 | ¥20.23 | ¥13.24 | -35% |
| Coal India Limited COALINDIA | ₹427.65 | ₹464.01 | +9% |
| China Coal Energy Company 601898 | ¥12.54 | ¥13.97 | +11% |
| Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 | ¥25.13 | ¥21.99 | -12% |
| Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co 601699 | ¥16.26 | ¥7.20 | -56% |
| PT Alamtri Resources Indonesia Tbk, ADRO | 2,490 IDR | 3,220 IDR | +29% |
| PT Petrindo Jaya Kreasi Tbk, through its subsidiaries, CUAN | 630.00 IDR | 360.72 IDR | -43% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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