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Thungela Resources Limited (TGA) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Sep 25, 2026: fair value of Thungela Resources Limited ZAR 193, price ZAR 115, upside +68.1%, quality 43 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.

  1. Fair value above price? Yes
  2. Good quality? No
  3. Add to watchlist

Energy · ZA · ISIN ZAE000296554

TR Thin data Sep 24, 2026

Thungela Resources Limited

TGA · JSE

Cheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.

✓Fair value R193.49 · Strongly undervalued (+68%)
!Quality 43/100
!Weak Growth (revenue 3y −16.5 %/yr)
!Loss-making · -23.9% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Mixed vs. peers (5/11)
!Narrow moat 9/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

Price vs Fair Value

R200.55 R13.12 Fair Value R193.49 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range R13.12 – R200.55 · fair‑value band R164.24 – R222.76 · the R115.12 price screens below the R193.49 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.

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Company profile

Thungela Resources Limited engages in the mining and production of thermal coal in South Africa and Australia.

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Thungela Resources Limited engages in the mining and production of thermal coal in South Africa and Australia. It owns interests in and produces its thermal coal from mining operations, consisting of underground and open cast mines in the Mpumalanga province of South Africa, including Greenside colliery, Khwezela colliery, Zibulo colliery, Mafube colliery, and Annea colliery. The company also holds 100% of the Ensham Mine located in Queensland, Australia. It also exports its products to Southeast Asian, the Middle East, and African markets. Thungela Resources Limited was founded in 1945 and is based in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Stock analysis

Thungela Resources Limited (TGA) currently trades at R115.12, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R193.49, implying the stock looks roughly 40.5% undervalued today.

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Valuation

Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of R167.79 per share, and 3 of the 4 models we run sit above the R115.12 price.

Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at R84.28, and 1 of the 4 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Scenario range: R164.24 (bear) to R222.76 (bull), the price of R115.12 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.

Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.

Thungela Resources Limited reported revenue of 29.6B ZAR in FY2025 versus 26.3B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was −7.1B ZAR in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 14.9B ZAC · P/S ratio 0.41 · EPS (TTM) R−54.64 · Dividend yield 6.5% · Net margin −23.9% · Return on equity −33.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 21.5% · Operating margin −6.9%.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 27 out of 100 (medium confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 33% below its 52-week high and 58% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −33% fair-value upside, at 68%, TGA screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Bear R164.24 Fair Value R193.49 Bull R222.76
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model. Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Gordon GGM R101.93 R183.68 R252.86 68
DDM Multi-Stage R101.93 R167.79 R196.22 67
EV/EBITDA R101.68 R119.68 R137.67 67
All 4 models by family
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM R101.93 R183.68 R252.86 68
DDM Multi-Stage R101.93 R167.79 R196.22 67
Multiples
EV/EBITDA R101.68 R119.68 R137.67 67
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) R62.90 R84.28 R125.80 54

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Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 43/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 51

Profitability 16
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 14
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 18
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 56
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 84
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 50
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 49
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 57
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Share count: buybacks or dilution?

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Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−16.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.5%
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−4.1% (2020) → −7.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 101 stocks

Beats the industry median on 4/9 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 43 · Below median
Fair Value upside +68% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −2% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) −24% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) −7% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth −21% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.5% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper

P/B 0.06× · Cheapest 25%
P/S (TTM) 0.03× · Cheapest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)100 · sector 19
FUTURE (revenue growth)0 · sector 6
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 92
DIVIDEND (yield)100 · sector 54

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Coal Oil & gas

Similar stocks

10 more Thermal Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

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China Shenhua Energy Company 601088 ¥48.03 ¥31.96 −33%
Adani Enterprises Limited ADANIENT ₹2,917 ₹891.11 −69%
Shaanxi Coal Industry Company 601225 ¥25.83 ¥28.41 +10%
Yankuang Energy Group 600188 ¥19.76 ¥9.35 −53%
China Coal Energy Company 601898 ¥14.01 ¥14.62 +4%
Coal India Limited COALINDIA ₹426.10 ₹464.01 +9%
PT Bayan Resources Tbk., BYAN 12,100 IDR 4,698 IDR −61%
Inner Mongolia Dian Tou Energy Corporation 002128 ¥28.24 ¥20.48 −27%
Shanxi Lu'an Environmental Energy Development Co 601699 ¥15.38 ¥9.97 −35%
PT Dian Swastatika Sentosa Tbk, DSSA 1,070 IDR 355.01 IDR −67%

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Thungela Resources Limited · Fair Value
R193.49 +41%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Thungela Resources Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TGA

Frequently asked questions

Is Thungela Resources Limited (TGA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R193.49 versus a price of R115.12, about +68% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TGA?
Our model-based fair value for Thungela Resources Limited is R193.49 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R115.12.
What is the quality score of TGA?
Thungela Resources Limited has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R193.49 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 4 valuation models. Cautious scenario R164.24, optimistic scenario R222.76. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Thungela Resources Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R193.49, about +68% upside versus a price of R115.12 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R164.24, optimistic scenario R222.76. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
Thungela Resources Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 29.6B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
Does Thungela Resources Limited pay a dividend?
Thungela Resources Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.51% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Thungela Resources Limited it is R193.49 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of R115.12. It is the blended result of 4 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Thungela Resources Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TGA trades below its calculated fair value: price R115.12, fair value R193.49, a gap of about +68% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TGA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R115.12); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R193.49). For Thungela Resources Limited the two are R78.37 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Thungela Resources Limited worth?
The market values Thungela Resources Limited at about 14.9B ZAC (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is R115.12; our models calculate a fair value of R193.49 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TGA?
Our models span a range for Thungela Resources Limited: cautious scenario R164.24, base R193.49, optimistic R222.76 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price R115.12). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Thungela Resources Limited (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity −33.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TGA from its 52-week high?
Thungela Resources Limited trades at R115.12, about 33% below its 52-week high of R173.03 and 58% above the low of R72.99 (as of Sep 25, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R193.49 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Thungela Resources Limited?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, Adani Enterprises Limited, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, Yankuang Energy Group, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Thungela Resources Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price R115.12, calculated fair value R193.49 (+68%), Quality Score 43/100, from 4 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TGA calculated?
We run Thungela Resources Limited through 4 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of R193.49, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Thungela Resources Limited currently trades 68 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
The closing price on Sep 25, 2026 was R115.12. Our model-based fair value is R193.49, about +68% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Thungela Resources Limited right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (R164.24). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Thungela Resources Limited

How large is the market capitalisation of Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
The market capitalisation of Thungela Resources Limited is 14.9B ZAC. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Thungela Resources Limited is 0.41 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
Earnings per share at Thungela Resources Limited are R−54.64. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
The dividend yield of Thungela Resources Limited is 6.5%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
The net margin of Thungela Resources Limited is −23.9% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Thungela Resources Limited is −33.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Thungela Resources Limited is 21.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
The operating margin of Thungela Resources Limited is −6.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
Revenue at Thungela Resources Limited is growing −21.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −16.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
Earnings per share at Thungela Resources Limited are growing −79.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Thungela Resources Limited (TGA) generate?
The free cash flow of Thungela Resources Limited is −337M ZAC (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Thungela Resources Limited (TGA) hold?
Thungela Resources Limited holds more cash than debt, 6.0B ZAC net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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