Thungela Resources Limited (TGA) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Thungela Resources Limited stock ZAR 189, price ZAR 118, upside +59.9%, quality 43 out of 100. Rating: strongly undervalued. Calculated from audited financials with 2 of our 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range R19.18 – R192.72 · fair‑value band R160.70 – R217.95 · the R118.44 price screens below the R189.33 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 5, 2026.
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Thungela Resources Limited engages in the mining and production of thermal coal in South Africa and Australia.
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It owns interests in and produces its thermal coal from mining operations, consisting of underground and open cast mines in the Mpumalanga province of South Africa, including Greenside colliery, Khwezela colliery, Zibulo colliery, Mafube colliery, and Annea colliery.
The company also holds 100% of the Ensham Mine located in Queensland, Australia. It also exports its products to Southeast Asian, the Middle East, and African markets. Thungela Resources Limited was founded in 1945 and is based in Johannesburg, South Africa.
Stock analysis
Thungela Resources Limited (TGA) currently trades at R118.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is R189.33, implying the stock looks roughly 37% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 2 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the data coverage at low.
Scenario range: R160.70 (bear) to R217.95 (bull), the price of R118.44 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Energy sector.
Weak Growth: Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Thungela Resources Limited reported revenue of 29.6B ZAR in FY2025 versus 26.3B ZAR in FY2021, a compound +3.0%/yr. Reported net income was −7.1B ZAR in FY2025.
Key figures
Market cap 15.6B ZAR Small · P/S ratio 0.64 · EPS (TTM) R−45.76 · Dividend yield 6.3% · Net margin −19.9% · Return on equity −28.6% · Return on assets (EBIT) 21.5% (5-year average) · Operating margin 4.2%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 13 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 29% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −24% fair-value upside, at 60%, TGA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
BearR160.70Fair Value R189.33BullR217.95
Price R118.44 · Upside +59.9%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EV/EBITDAR101.16R119.18R137.2067
NCAV (Graham)R62.46R83.70R124.9354
All 2 models by family
Multiples
EV/EBITDAR101.16R119.18R137.2067
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)R62.46R83.70R124.9354
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for a cyclical trough year.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.0/100
Revenue is shrinking: the last year, the last three and the last five years are all negative.
Revenue growth 1 year
−16.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−16.5%
Revenue growth 7 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.7%
’18
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Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−4.1% (2020) → −7.8% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
Compare Thungela Resources Limited with another stock
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Thermal Coal · 84 stocks
Beats the industry median on 5/10 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score43 · Below median
Fair Value upside+59.9% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on assets−18.8% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)−19.9% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months)4.2% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)2.4% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)6.3% · Top 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Thermal Coal median · lower = cheaper
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Is Thungela Resources Limited (TGA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of R189.33 versus a price of R118.44, about +60% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TGA?
Our model-based fair value for Thungela Resources Limited is R189.33 (as of Nov 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: R118.44.
What is the quality score of TGA?
Thungela Resources Limited has a Quality Score of 43/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of R189.33 (as of Nov 5, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario R160.70, optimistic scenario R217.95. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Thungela Resources Limited stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at R189.33, about +60% upside versus a price of R118.44 (undervalued). Cautious scenario R160.70, optimistic scenario R217.95. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
Thungela Resources Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 30.0B ZAR (latest available figure, as of Nov 5, 2026).
Does Thungela Resources Limited pay a dividend?
Thungela Resources Limited currently shows a dividend yield of 6.33% relative to its recent price (as of Nov 5, 2026).
How much is the dividend of Thungela Resources Limited (TGA) and when is the ex-dividend date?
Thungela Resources Limited pays a dividend of R7.50 per share a year, a dividend yield of 6.3%. The last ex-dividend date was Sep 16, 2026. A dividend has been paid every year since at least 2022. Our assessment: Watch coverage. The dividend isn’t fully covered by free cash flow or earnings, part of it is funded from reserves or debt. Fine for now, but worth watching: if it stays uncovered, the dividend could be cut.
What is the intrinsic value of Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Thungela Resources Limited it is R189.33 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026), against a price of R118.44. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models in 2 families (Multiples, Asset-Based).
Is Thungela Resources Limited stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 5, 2026, TGA trades below its calculated fair value: price R118.44, fair value R189.33, a gap of about +60% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TGA?
No. The price is what the market pays today (R118.44); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (R189.33). For Thungela Resources Limited the two are R70.89 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Thungela Resources Limited worth?
The market values Thungela Resources Limited at about 15.6B ZAR (market capitalisation, as of Nov 5, 2026). Per share that is R118.44; our models calculate a fair value of R189.33 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TGA?
Our models span a range for Thungela Resources Limited: cautious scenario R160.70, base R189.33, optimistic R217.95 per share (as of Nov 5, 2026, price R118.44). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
Balance-sheet figures for Thungela Resources Limited (as of Nov 5, 2026): return on equity −28.6%. They feed the Quality Score of 43/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TGA from its 52-week high?
Thungela Resources Limited trades at R118.44, about 29% below its 52-week high of R166.27 and 64% above the low of R72.13 (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of R189.33 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Thungela Resources Limited?
From the same area (Energy) we also value China Shenhua Energy Company, Shaanxi Coal Industry Company, Adani Enterprises Limited, China Coal Energy Company, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Thungela Resources Limited stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 5, 2026: price R118.44, calculated fair value R189.33 (+60%), Quality Score 43/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TGA calculated?
We run Thungela Resources Limited through 2 models from 2 families: Multiples, Asset-Based. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the fair value of R189.33 builds on their evidence-weighted average, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.7% above its aggregate fair value. Thungela Resources Limited currently trades 37% below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was R118.44. Our model-based fair value is R189.33, about +60% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Thungela Resources Limited right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (43/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case (R160.70). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Key figures of Thungela Resources Limited
How large is the market capitalisation of Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
The market capitalisation of Thungela Resources Limited is 15.6B ZAR. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Thungela Resources Limited is 0.64 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
Earnings per share at Thungela Resources Limited are R−45.76. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
The dividend yield of Thungela Resources Limited is 6.3%. Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
The net margin of Thungela Resources Limited is −19.9% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Thungela Resources Limited is −28.6% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Thungela Resources Limited is 21.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
The operating margin of Thungela Resources Limited is 4.2% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
Revenue at Thungela Resources Limited is growing +2.4% versus a year earlier (3y avg −16.5%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Thungela Resources Limited (TGA)?
Earnings per share at Thungela Resources Limited are growing +465% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Thungela Resources Limited (TGA) generate?
The free cash flow of Thungela Resources Limited is −337M ZAR (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net cash does Thungela Resources Limited (TGA) hold?
Thungela Resources Limited holds more cash than debt, 6.0B ZAR net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
Why does Thungela Resources Limited not meet the fair value rule although the fair value shown is higher?
Trough year lifted: R119.18 → R189.33. The latest year was a trough or loss year. So we calculate with a normal year: R189.33 instead of R119.18. As in the backtest, the fair value rule checks the value before: +1% against the price.
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Thin data
Nov 5, 2026