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Towngas Smart Energy Company (TGASF) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 2, 2026: fair value of Towngas Smart Energy Company $0.67, price $0.43, upside +56.2%, quality 34 out of 100. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
- Fair value above price? Yes
- Good quality? No
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Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Thin data
Sep 24, 2026
Towngas Smart Energy Company
TGASF · USCheap, value-trap riskThe stock looks deeply undervalued, but low quality raises value-trap risk.
✓Fair value $0.6700 · Strongly undervalued (+56.2%)
!Quality 34/100
!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +10.3 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 7.6% net margin (TTM)
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Narrow moat 36/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
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What runs behind every stock
26
valuation models
8 families, DCF to NCAV
37
quality factors
margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt
6
AI factors
moat, what no ratio measures
2,000+
data points
verified, per stock, median
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $0.1972 – $0.7022 · fair‑value band $0.5600 – $0.9100 · the $0.4290 price screens below the $0.6700 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 24, 2026.
Company profile
Towngas Smart Energy Company Limited, an investment holding company, sells piped gas, renewable energy, and other types of energy in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through four segments: Sales of Piped Gas Business; Gas Connection; Renewable Energy Business; and Extended Business.
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Towngas Smart Energy Company Limited, an investment holding company, sells piped gas, renewable energy, and other types of energy in the People's Republic of China. The company operates through four segments: Sales of Piped Gas Business; Gas Connection; Renewable Energy Business; and Extended Business. It engages in the construction of gas pipelines; provision of photovoltaic power, and other related energy and services; sale of gas related household appliances; and other value-added services. The company also offers smart energy solutions, financing, and engineering works services, and upstream and midstream project services; provides natural gas distributed energy; engages in the procurement of natural gas sources; and operates vehicle gas refilling stations. The company was formerly known as Towngas China Company Limited and changed its name to Towngas Smart Energy Company Limited in December 2021. The company was founded in 1998 and is headquartered in North Point, Hong Kong. Towngas Smart Energy Company Limited operates as a subsidiary of Hong Kong & China Gas (China) Limited.
Stock analysis
Towngas Smart Energy Company (TGASF) currently trades at $0.4290, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $0.6700, implying the stock looks roughly 36.0% undervalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $1.07 per share, and 11 of the 17 models we run sit above the $0.4290 price.
Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $0.0900, and 6 of the 17 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Scenario range: $0.5600 (bear) to $0.9100 (bull), the price of $0.4290 sits below it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Towngas Smart Energy Company reported revenue of HK$20.9B in FY2025 versus HK$17.1B in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$1.6B in FY2025, compounding +6.0%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $1.7B · P/E ratio 8.6 · P/S ratio 0.65 · EPS (TTM) $0.0500 · Net margin 7.6% · Return on equity 6.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.0% · Operating margin 5.5%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 43 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and at its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 56%, TGASF screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear $0.5600
Fair Value $0.6700
Bull $0.9100
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above is their evidence-weighted blend, not the output of a single model.
Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.
Evidence ⓘEvidence = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Highest evidence
Residual Income
$0.6600
$0.6600
$0.7100
76
Owner Earnings
$0.0900
$0.3900
$0.8600
69
EPV
n/a
$0.0200
$0.0500
68
All 17 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings
$0.0900
$0.3900
$0.8600
69
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd
$0.3700
$1.98
$2.74
63
Lynch FV
$0.5500
$0.7800
$1.01
61
PEG = 1.0
$0.5500
$0.7800
$1.01
57
EPV
n/a
$0.0200
$0.0500
68
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM
$0.0500
$0.0900
$0.1300
67
DDM Multi-Stage
$0.0500
$0.0900
$0.1000
67
Multiples
P/E Multiple
$0.7400
$0.9900
$1.24
63
P/S Multiple
$0.7000
$0.9400
$1.17
58
P/B Multiple
$0.7000
$0.9400
$1.17
55
EV/EBIT
$0.2500
$0.4300
$0.6100
64
EV/EBITDA
$0.4200
$0.6500
$0.8900
66
EV/Revenue
$0.1500
$0.3400
$0.5200
51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)
$0.4500
$0.6000
$0.8900
54
Economic Profit
Residual Income
$0.6600
$0.6600
$0.7100
76
ROIC Compounder
n/a
$0.0200
$0.0500
68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E
$0.7500
$1.07
$1.39
67
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Set up alert →Quality Score breakdown
Overall quality
34/100
Of which business quality 33 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 30
Profitability
26
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth
19
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow
22
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength
32
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment
70
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility
38
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum
22
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum
32
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance
44
Share count: buybacks or dilution?
Revenue & earnings trend
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.
44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
−1.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+1.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+10.3%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +10.5% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+12.7%
’14
’15
’16
’17
’18
’19
’20
’21
’22
’23
’24
’25
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
−2.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−2.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−2.6% vs 1.1%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.24% → 7%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Utilities - Regulated Gas · 104 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/13 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation Multiplesvs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper
Context: sector, industry, market
- Is the Utilities sector expensive or cheap?
- P/E, EV/EBITDA and margins by industry (reference tables)
- Undervalued stocks: Utilities
- Undervalued stocks: US Stocks
- Valuation of the USA market
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
None of the checked exposures detected
Similar stocks
10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Naturgy Energy Group NTGY | €29.10 | €32.79 | +13% |
| Atmos Energy Corporation ATO | $156.38 | $77.00 | −51% |
| Uniper SE UN0 | €45.25 | €45.97 | +2% |
| NiSource Inc NI | $39.50 | $19.90 | −50% |
| The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 | HK$7.08 | HK$4.79 | −32% |
| GAIL (India) Limited GAIL | ₹172.70 | ₹132.97 | −23% |
| Italgas S.p.A IG | €8.35 | €9.19 | +10% |
| ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 | ¥18.54 | ¥36.99 | +100% |
| UGI Corporation UGI | $36.24 | $32.74 | −10% |
| ENN Energy Holdings 2688 | HK$48.76 | HK$107.85 | +121% |
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Frequently asked questions
Is Towngas Smart Energy Company (TGASF) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 24, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $0.6700 versus a price of $0.4290, about +56% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of TGASF?
Our model-based fair value for Towngas Smart Energy Company is $0.6700 (as of Sep 24, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $0.4290.
What is the quality score of TGASF?
Towngas Smart Energy Company has a Quality Score of 34/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Towngas Smart Energy Company (TGASF)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $0.6700 (as of Sep 24, 2026) from 17 valuation models. Cautious scenario $0.5600, optimistic scenario $0.9100. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Towngas Smart Energy Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $0.6700, about +56% upside versus a price of $0.4290 (undervalued). Cautious scenario $0.5600, optimistic scenario $0.9100. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Towngas Smart Energy Company (TGASF)?
Towngas Smart Energy Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$20.9B (latest available figure, as of Sep 24, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Towngas Smart Energy Company (TGASF)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Towngas Smart Energy Company it is $0.6700 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026), against a price of $0.4290. It is the blended result of 17 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Towngas Smart Energy Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Sep 24, 2026, TGASF trades below its calculated fair value: price $0.4290, fair value $0.6700, a gap of about +56% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TGASF?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($0.4290); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($0.6700). For Towngas Smart Energy Company the two are $0.2410 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Towngas Smart Energy Company worth?
The market values Towngas Smart Energy Company at about $1.7B (market capitalisation, as of Sep 24, 2026). Per share that is $0.4290; our models calculate a fair value of $0.6700 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TGASF?
Our models span a range for Towngas Smart Energy Company: cautious scenario $0.5600, base $0.6700, optimistic $0.9100 per share (as of Sep 24, 2026, price $0.4290). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TGASF?
Towngas Smart Energy Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 8.6 (as of Sep 24, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $0.6700 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: P/B 0.5, P/S 0.6, EV/EBITDA 7.5.
How solid is the balance sheet of Towngas Smart Energy Company (TGASF)?
Balance-sheet figures for Towngas Smart Energy Company (as of Sep 24, 2026): return on equity 6.5%, debt of 0.42 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 34/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TGASF from its 52-week high?
Towngas Smart Energy Company trades at $0.4290, about 16% below its 52-week high of $0.5090 and at the low of $0.4290 (as of Oct 2, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $0.6700 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Towngas Smart Energy Company?
From the same area (Utilities) we also value Naturgy Energy Group, Atmos Energy Corporation, Uniper SE, NiSource Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Towngas Smart Energy Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Sep 24, 2026: price $0.4290, calculated fair value $0.6700 (+56%), Quality Score 34/100, from 17 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TGASF calculated?
We run Towngas Smart Energy Company through 17 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $0.6700, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 14.5 % above its aggregate fair value. Towngas Smart Energy Company currently trades 36 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Towngas Smart Energy Company (TGASF)?
The closing price on Oct 2, 2026 was $0.4290. Our model-based fair value is $0.6700, about +56% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Towngas Smart Energy Company right now?
The large discount to fair value meets weak quality (34/100). That raises the risk this is a value trap rather than a bargain. The price is below even our cautious bear case ($0.5600). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Where does the earnings growth of Towngas Smart Energy Company (TGASF) come from?
Earnings per share at Towngas Smart Energy Company grew +1.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +7.5 %, EBIT margin −2.5 %, tax rate +1.0 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.8 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Towngas Smart Energy Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Towngas Smart Energy Company (TGASF)?
The market capitalisation of Towngas Smart Energy Company is $1.7B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Towngas Smart Energy Company (TGASF)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Towngas Smart Energy Company is 0.65 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Towngas Smart Energy Company (TGASF)?
Earnings per share at Towngas Smart Energy Company are $0.0500 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Towngas Smart Energy Company (TGASF)?
The net margin of Towngas Smart Energy Company is 7.6% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Towngas Smart Energy Company (TGASF)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Towngas Smart Energy Company is 6.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Towngas Smart Energy Company (TGASF)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Towngas Smart Energy Company is 5.0% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Towngas Smart Energy Company (TGASF)?
The operating margin of Towngas Smart Energy Company is 5.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Towngas Smart Energy Company (TGASF)?
Revenue at Towngas Smart Energy Company is growing −3.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Towngas Smart Energy Company (TGASF)?
Earnings per share at Towngas Smart Energy Company are growing −8.5% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Towngas Smart Energy Company (TGASF) generate?
The free cash flow of Towngas Smart Energy Company is −HK$575M (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Towngas Smart Energy Company (TGASF) carry?
The net debt of Towngas Smart Energy Company is HK$14.8B (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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