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Thirdeye Systems Ltd (THES) fair value: what the stock is really worth

As of Nov 10, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Thirdeye Systems Ltd stock ILS 2.18, price ILS 3.75, that is 41.8% below the price, quality 12 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. The value is an estimate: none of our valuation models currently carries, it draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies. Updated daily.

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Industrials Il · ISIN IL0003970188

TS Thirdeye Systems Ltd logo Thin data Nov 10, 2026

Thirdeye Systems Ltd

THES · TA
Very expensive, weak quality

Our calculation puts a fair price 42% below what the stock costs today.

Low debt
Last quarter vs. a year ago: revenue +63%, profit +63%.
Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +28.8 %/yr in ILS)
Fair value 2.18 ILS · Strongly overvalued
Quality 12/100
Loss-making · -60.0% net margin (TTM)
Negative free cash flow
Trails peers (2/10)
Narrow moat 8/100 · thin data
Thin data
Estimate
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26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

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Price vs Fair Value

14.90 ILS 1.71 ILS Fair Value 2.18 ILS Jul 2021 Nov 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Nov 10, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range 1.71 ILS – 14.90 ILS · fair‑value band 1.64 ILS – 2.73 ILS · the 3.75 ILS price screens above the 2.18 ILS fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). As of Nov 10, 2026.

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Company profile

Thirdeye Systems Ltd. engages in the research and development of high-end object recognition algorithms within the thermal spectrum in Israel and internationally. It also develops solutions that are in service with the Israel Defense Forces and other defense companies.

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Its products include Argus Shield, a state-of-the-art detection and classification AI algorithm; MeduzaX, a C-UAV solution for unmatched security; Chimera UL, a day-and-night system that incorporates an uncooled LWIR thermal imager and HD Day EO camera in a compact lightweight package; vEYE, a short-range Investigation payload for dead spot around vehicle or compound uses in harsh conditions; fEYE, a fused advanced technologies to achieve exceptional perception, uses for ADAS levels 1 to 4 for UGV; and TESSERACT, an analytics enhancement for cooled and uncooled payload.

It serves autonomous vehicles, critical assets, counter terrorism, maritime protection, border control, search and rescue, and airport security Industries. The company was formerly known as New Horizon Group Ltd. and changed its name to Thirdeye Systems Ltd. in May 2021.

Thirdeye Systems Ltd. was incorporated in 1979 and is based in Netanya, Israel.

Stock analysis

Thirdeye Systems Ltd (THES) currently trades at 3.75 ILS, while our estimate is 2.18 ILS, 42% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.

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Valuation

None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Scenario range: 1.64 ILS (bear) to 2.73 ILS (bull), the price of 3.75 ILS sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.

Quality & growth

The Quality Score stands at 12/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.

Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.

Thirdeye Systems Ltd reported revenue of 20.9M ILS in FY2025 versus 7.9M ILS in FY2021, a compound +27.5%/yr. Reported net income was −13.1M ILS in FY2025.

Key figures

Market cap 156M ILS Micro · P/S ratio 7.10 · EPS (TTM) −0.6000 ILS · Net margin −60.0% · Return on equity −51.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) −101% (5-year average) · Operating margin −46.9% · Revenue (TTM) 27.6M ILS.

Competitive moat

Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 8 out of 100 (low confidence).

What moves the price

The share trades about 75% below its 52-week high and 44% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.

For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at −42%, THES screens richer than that median.

Fair Value

Bear 1.64 ILS Fair Value 2.18 ILS Bull 2.73 ILS
Price 3.75 ILS · Downside -41.8%
Estimate. None of our valuation models currently carries for this company, usually because of losses or heavy investment. The estimate draws on revenue and assets compared with similar companies and is less precise than a model-based fair value.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 12/100

It rates the business: profits, how they develop, real cash, balance sheet, investing and share count.

Profitability 10
How much profit the company makes from its sales and capital
Quality Growth 22
Are margins and returns getting better?
Cashflow 9
Do the profits arrive as real cash?
Financial strength 6
Debt, balance sheet and risk of trouble
Investment 37
Does it invest with discipline instead of growing at any price?
Low Volatility 50
How calm the share price moves, does not count
Price momentum 23
Price momentum of the last 3 to 12 months, does not count
Near the 52-week high 28
Distance to the 52-week high, does not count
New shares 0
Buys back shares or issues new ones?

Open the full quality analysis →

Revenue & earnings trend

Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card. 44/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.2%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+28.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 6 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+31.9%
Profit margin (trend) ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.
−28.0% (2020) → −58.1% (2025)
What shareholders gained per year ⓘWe only publish this rate when it is defensible. Reason: fiscal 2025 is a loss year, no rate is defined from a loss
not computed

THES screens overvalued: fair value 42% below the price. Compare with Allegion plc →

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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Security & Protection Services · 115 stocks

Beats the industry median on 1/8 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score 12 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −41.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on assets −37.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months) −60.0% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (12 months) −46.9% · Bottom 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY) 63.3% · Top 25%

Valuation Multiplesvs Security & Protection Services median · lower = cheaper

P/B 46.89× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months) 5.66× · Priciest 25%

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0 · sector 29
FUTURE (revenue growth)100 · sector 46
PAST (return on equity)0 · sector 23
HEALTH (low debt)100 · sector 99
DIVIDEND (yield)0 · sector 41

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Context: sector, industry, market

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Security & Protection Services stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate.

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value Compare
Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co 002236 ¥14.36 ¥32.12 +124% vs THES
ADT Inc ADT $9.90 $10.67 +8% vs THES
Brady Corporation BRC $80.00 $84.37 +5% vs THES
The Brink's Company BCO $116.60 $121.16 +4% vs THES
S-1 Corporation 012750 98,100 KRW 99,629 KRW +2% vs THES
Loomis AB LOOMIS kr 517.50 kr 496.43 −4% vs THES
MSA Safety Incorporated MSA $175.24 $121.81 −30% vs THES
Allegion plc ALLE $189.49 $129.15 −32% vs THES
CoreCivic, Inc CXW $31.59 $18.76 −41% vs THES
The GEO Group GEO $31.94 $13.08 −59% vs THES

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Thirdeye Systems Ltd: fair value per Fair Value Calculator

Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Thirdeye Systems Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/THES

Frequently asked questions

Is Thirdeye Systems Ltd (THES) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Nov 10, 2026, our estimate of fair value is 2.18 ILS versus a price of 3.75 ILS, about 42% lower (overvalued).
What is the fair value of THES?
Our estimate for Thirdeye Systems Ltd is 2.18 ILS (as of Nov 10, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 3.75 ILS.
What is the quality score of THES?
Thirdeye Systems Ltd has a Quality Score of 12/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Thirdeye Systems Ltd (THES)?
Our calculated price target is the estimate of 2.18 ILS (as of Nov 10, 2026). Cautious scenario 1.64 ILS, optimistic scenario 2.73 ILS. It is an estimate from revenue and assets compared with similar companies, because none of our valuation models currently carries, not an analyst target.
What is the Thirdeye Systems Ltd stock forecast for 2026?
Our estimate puts fair value at 2.18 ILS, about 42% lower versus a price of 3.75 ILS (overvalued). Cautious scenario 1.64 ILS, optimistic scenario 2.73 ILS. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Thirdeye Systems Ltd (THES)?
Thirdeye Systems Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 27.6M ILS (latest available figure, as of Nov 10, 2026).
What is the intrinsic value of Thirdeye Systems Ltd (THES)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Thirdeye Systems Ltd it is 2.18 ILS per share (as of Nov 10, 2026), against a price of 3.75 ILS.
Is Thirdeye Systems Ltd stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Nov 10, 2026, THES trades above its calculated fair value: price 3.75 ILS, fair value 2.18 ILS, a gap of about −42% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of THES?
No. The price is what the market pays today (3.75 ILS); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (2.18 ILS). For Thirdeye Systems Ltd the two are 1.57 ILS per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Thirdeye Systems Ltd worth?
The market values Thirdeye Systems Ltd at about 156M ILS (market capitalisation, as of Nov 10, 2026). Per share that is 3.75 ILS; our models calculate a fair value of 2.18 ILS per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about THES?
Our models span a range for Thirdeye Systems Ltd: cautious scenario 1.64 ILS, base 2.18 ILS, optimistic 2.73 ILS per share (as of Nov 10, 2026, price 3.75 ILS). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
How solid is the balance sheet of Thirdeye Systems Ltd (THES)?
Balance-sheet figures for Thirdeye Systems Ltd (as of Nov 10, 2026): return on equity −51.9%. They feed the Quality Score of 12/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is THES from its 52-week high?
Thirdeye Systems Ltd trades at 3.75 ILS, about 75% below its 52-week high of 14.90 ILS and 44% above the low of 2.60 ILS (as of Nov 10, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 2.18 ILS is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Thirdeye Systems Ltd?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value Allegion plc, ADT Inc, Zhejiang Dahua Technology Co, MSA Safety Incorporated, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Thirdeye Systems Ltd stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Nov 10, 2026: price 3.75 ILS, calculated fair value 2.18 ILS (−42%), Quality Score 12/100. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 15.1% above its aggregate fair value. Thirdeye Systems Ltd itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Thirdeye Systems Ltd (THES)?
The closing price on Nov 10, 2026 was 3.75 ILS. Our estimate is 2.18 ILS, about 42% lower (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Thirdeye Systems Ltd right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (2.73 ILS). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (12/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Key figures of Thirdeye Systems Ltd

How large is the market capitalisation of Thirdeye Systems Ltd (THES)?
The market capitalisation of Thirdeye Systems Ltd is 156M ILS. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Thirdeye Systems Ltd (THES)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Thirdeye Systems Ltd is 7.10 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Thirdeye Systems Ltd (THES)?
Earnings per share at Thirdeye Systems Ltd are −0.6000 ILS. Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Thirdeye Systems Ltd (THES)?
The net margin of Thirdeye Systems Ltd is −60.0% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Thirdeye Systems Ltd (THES)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Thirdeye Systems Ltd is −51.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Thirdeye Systems Ltd (THES)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Thirdeye Systems Ltd is −101% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Thirdeye Systems Ltd (THES)?
The operating margin of Thirdeye Systems Ltd is −46.9% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Thirdeye Systems Ltd (THES)?
Revenue at Thirdeye Systems Ltd is growing +63.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +26.2%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Thirdeye Systems Ltd (THES)?
Earnings per share at Thirdeye Systems Ltd are growing +63.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much free cash flow does Thirdeye Systems Ltd (THES) generate?
The free cash flow of Thirdeye Systems Ltd is −13.0M ILS (fiscal year 2025). The cash truly left after running and investing in the business, this is what pays dividends and buybacks.
How much net debt does Thirdeye Systems Ltd (THES) carry?
The net debt of Thirdeye Systems Ltd is 13.3M ILS (fiscal year 2025). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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